Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Wednesday's Severe Threat - Derecho Perhaps?

After looking at the severe weather parameters along with the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow, the threat for severe storms later tomorrow and into the evening is more than just a passing thought for northern Indiana and most of Ohio.

The storms will occur in large clusters moving from west to southeast along the front where the best convergence will develop.

WSI's RPM model in its future reflectivity output illustrates what the radar might look like tomorrow late afternoon/early evening

If you recall, last year around this time, a Derecho developed along the same latitude that storms will fire up late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Due to their uncertain and progressive nature driven by changes in the storm clusters magnified on the larger scale, the position and direction of derechos are difficult to forecast.

Here was the SPC severe risk area last year before the Derecho ON THE LEFT versus tomorrow risk area.

 What is tomorrow's bottom line?  If these storms track through northern Ohio, anticipate wind gusts of 50+ mph with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" in local areas. Anticipate sunshine between these storm clusters. Power outages are also a reality.

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