Tuesday, July 09, 2013
Consecutive Rain Streak Continues...
"When will it end?!"
The collective question of all residents of northern Ohio is resonating loudly. The answer is very soon.
"This rain must be some sort of record", you ask.
The answer is we've had unsettled, rainy patterns in mid summer like this before. 2009 was one such summer. Temps were "cooler"...rainfall was plentiful. The recency effect (the cognitive bias which weighs current events with more importance than past events) is at work here. Our perceptions of weather extremes are a prime example of this.
While above normal rainfall has occurred in the past, its the "frequency of the rain" this summer that sits at the front of our memory. Here are the bullet points:
* July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport.
I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900. (Yes, I looked at over ten thousand days of data--10,488 days...whew). What I found was very surprising:
It's NEVER happened...EVER!
* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.
* The next in line, 11 straight days: 2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966
Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:
76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE HAD LESS THAN 7 DAY STRETCHES WITH RAINFALL!
The streak should end at 16 days when the first cold front in several weeks changes the pattern into the weekend.