Wednesday, April 09, 2014

More Evidence of Building El Nino--Summer Thoughts

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the MEI or Multivariate ENSO Index and how this was a better overall measure of ocean-atmosphere conditions. It takes into account not only sea surface temperatures but sea level pressure, surface temperature, wind and cloud cover.

The update shows a significant increase in El Nino conditions. Given the neutral conditions that existed over the last several months, the events that best fit so far are indicated below. We have a way to go before we reach the MODERATE EL NINO events of 1986 and 2002 in their early stages.


Sub surface warmth continues to move eastward and closer to the surface similar to the El Nino event of 1997-98.
Will the MEI reach 1997 or 1982 levels by the middle of the summer?


Klaus Wolter summarizes the conditions succinctly here:

"I looked at the nearest-ranked Feb-Mar MEI values, and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Nov-Dec. Of the 9 cases selected in this fashion, three remained either neutral (1960) or dropped back to La Niña status within a year (1961, 1984). The other SIX cases look like a roll-call of historic El Niño events since 1950: 1957-58,'65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-88, and '97-98."

He continues:  "Not only does this confirm the increased odds of an El Niño in 2014 (first pointed out four months ago on this wepage), it also translates into higher odds for a moderate-to-strong El Niño" 

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Using 1963, 68, 86, 91, 94, 2002 and 2006 as the best fit years taking into account the MEI and early stages of a MODERATE EL NINO, the summer temperatures versus average look like this:


If we include the years during the early stages of the STRONG EL NINO events of 1982 and 1997 weighting them the same along with the other years above, we get this:



 If the STRONG EL NINO years are weighted DOUBLE, we get this:  COOLER SUMMER!




The bottom line is this summer's temperature outlook will be determined heavily on how strong this El Nino becomes. Final SUMMER OUTLOOK will be broadcast in early May on WJW FOX 8. 

3 comments:

Dennis Boylan said...

what impact will this have on other weather components such as amount of storms, wind conditions, clear vs cloudy days,large variations or swings in temperature

Dennis Boylan said...

what impact will this have on other weather components such as amount of storms, wind conditions, clear vs cloudy days,large variations or swings in temperature

Scott Sabol, Meteorologist said...

El Nino doesn't give us any specifics like what you are asking. It just dictates the probability of a specific pattern. Remember, EL Nino is only one of many other variables in formulate outlooks.