Let's Clear Up A Few Things...

Many wonder why I write so much about the psychology of weather. If you read the comments on most of my posts over the last several weeks you'll see why: They believe what they want to believe. They use social media as a conduit to say whatever impulsive thought they want without recourse. Perception is the ultimate reality.

I use social media and my blog to show why weather events occur the way they do. I post stats and records about past weather to show some perspective in the hope that this will help viewers of our station and the general reader. Often times it just doesn't work...much to my dismay.

So let's clear up a few things. Rather than use science to explain the why we do what we do, I'm using straight forward bullet points. Let's wipe the slate clean and start out fresh and new as we approach the end of the year.

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1) It WILL snow at some point. It always does. And no, I don't like snow.

2) The warm weather is playing with our minds.  Our weather perceptions (cognitive biases if you will) are very strong.  We are not immune.  We are all human.  Recognition of these preconceived notions is the first step in an objective understanding the weather and the science that governs it.

2a)  We hate forecast uncertainty. Here's why LINK

3) Contrary to what you might believe, weather forecasts are more accurate than they were 15 years ago.  According to this study, "the accuracy of the 8-10 day forecast today are similar to a 5-7 day forecast 15 years ago. Hurricane accuracy is greatly improved since Hurricane Katrina LINK.

4) Our morning show here at FOX 8 is on for 6 hours. The weather forecast between 4 and 10am can change as the conditions change. Forecasts are not frozen in time during each newscast.  The weather doesn't stop for television.

5) The decision to break into a popular TV show or sporting event with a weather update is NOT an impulsive one. Stations have different philosophies on when to break into programming. I can't speak for the others. However, my station WJW-FOX 8 only breaks during a tornado warning or a significant winter weather event (widespread, blizzard-like snow). If you send a comment complaining about our stringent guidelines, you obviously care more about football than being warned when a tornado warning is issued.

6) Contrary to many weather maps on the air, the atmosphere is three dimensional and ever changing. Imagine the atmosphere (especially during sleet, freezing rain events) like layers of a wedding cake.  Each layer of icing represents the different layers of air at different temperatures with different types of precipitation.

Note: The wedding cake analogy is mine and mine alone. I invented it.

7) Moon or sun halos are not uncommon. They are beautiful sights caused by the bending, splitting and reflecting of sunlight through ice crystal clouds.  We have hundreds of photos.

8) I'm not a fan of phone weather apps that promise super-local weather forecasts for your backyard. They are like unicorns.  They don't exist.  Most are computer generated data approximated based on your location via GPS.  I trust a human generated forecast (via NWS or your local tv station) every day of the week.

9) Jet contrails are not chem-trails.  They, like, unicorns don't exist.  I don't like conspiracy theories.

10) I have no control of weather, news or school closing promos that run 15 times per hour. The promotions department is on the first floor.

11) These above normal December temperatures were mentioned in a blog post on my weather blog in early September and again in our FOX 8 winter weather outlook. Yes, pre-Christmas warmth has happened before.  Remember 1982?

12) Simply because the weather has been warm or cold, wet or dry doesn't confirm or deny climate change in any form. I'm an operational meteorologist who happens to be on television.  Keep your subjectivity or bias to yourself.  So please don't send me anecdotal evidence confirming your preconceived notions.  See number 2 above for the reasons why.

13) We forget that last December was above normal with no snow for only the 3rd time in 140 years.  Christmas week in 2014 was the 8th warmest on record in northern Ohio.

14) This warmth is driven by BOTH El Nino and a strong Polar Vortex not just El Nino. Remember the Polar Vortex from last winter?  Yes, it's real (LINK)

15) Storm systems like what we are seeing currently which develop over Texas and move northeast--termed "Panhandle Hooks"--are more common in El Ninos.  Wet snows are more common from Texas through the mid-Atlantic in these years.

16) Contrary to what we believe, you cannot use one or two days or a weeks worth of weather as a predictor or the season ahead. In other words, a warm or cold December is not an indicator of the spring or summer ahead. The drivers of winter aren't necessarily the drivers of spring and summer.  It's not an apples to apples comparison.  (Remember December 2014 was warmer than normal.  Then the bottom fell out: January through February was the 6th coldest on record, coldest since 1978)

17) The fact that I have said over the last week that colder air in January will replace the relative warmth in December doesn't mean the entire winter will be colder than average. (see FOX 8 outlook issued in October)

18) Lake Erie water temperature is 45 degrees. It's been this warm before on the 22nd of December: 2001 and 1998 for starters.  The water temperature is taken at a depth of 30 feet. No one seems to have an answer as to why.

19) There is a TON of science behind seasonal outlooks. The Farmers' Almanac is not science (although I enjoy reading it).  Weather consulting companies issue seasonal outlooks tailored for their clients. This sector has grown significantly in recent years.

20) Many readers will ignore everything I typed here and replace it with their own conclusions regardless of their validity.

I reserve the right to add to this list.

I hope this helps.

Summer Outlooks Are Different Than Day-to-Day Forecasts

Our WJW FOX8 Summer Outlook first aired on Thursday, April 24th. Not long after, comments and criticism started pouring in stating in part that we should concentrate on getting the daily forecast right rather than trying to forecast the weather months out. This isn't new. It happens after each seasonal outlook.

Actual day to day weather forecasts are developed with analyzing current conditions, radar, satellite and other parameters to make a forecast for a short period of time in the future. 12 Hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, 48 hours. We utilize computer model projections as guidance. Yes, these projections are getting better as more data is utilized and plugged into faster and faster computers with more sophisticated equations.

Seasonal long range outlooks (winter weather forecast, etc) are created by looking at the ocean sea surface temperature patterns (El Nino, etc), pressure patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic among some other long term atmospheric trends. Some scientists use solar output and other variables. The elements just mentioned are matched up with other years of occurrence.  A best possible fit is created. Sometimes this works out well.  Sometimes it doesn’t.  Again, this is a trend outlook not a specific forecast for a specific day. Individual storms cannot be seen this far out. Forecasts for specific days? Forget it. Too much randomness in the atmosphere that is way beyond our abilities. But by looking at parameters that existed in the past during other storm events, we can say that the chance of say a hurricane making landfall is greater this year than in years past. 

For most, all of these forecasts and trend outlooks are lumped into one group even though each are derived using entirely different information. I get it. Its human nature to generalize and simplify complicated subjects like the science of weather prediction. So as a result, we formulate a concrete, black and white, overly scaled down version of the weather.  Whether its a long range winter outlook, a climate average for a wedding day, the thunderstorm chances for later this afternoon, lake effect snowfall amounts or a hurricane forecast track. Its all the same animal to most. We subconsciously eliminate the nebulous science, weird looking equations and fancy internet computer animations in favor of a narrative that tells a better story.  In short, The Old Farmers’ Almanac fits with how our brains are wired.  Its simple. Its folksy with just enough science to make it credible.  Why do we continue believing the Old Farmers’ Almanac?  The simple answer is it makes us feel good!  While I love the Old Farmers Almanac for its articles, I'd trust an actual Meteorologist's forecast first.  I wouldn't preemptively dismiss the scientific explanation, ignore the random changes and replace them with the Old Farmers Almanac figuring that its more accurate.  Just saying...

So remember that Seasonal Outlooks are by their very nature formulated differently than day-to-day forecasts.  Let's sit back and see if this summer will behave like we think it will.

More Evidence of Building El Nino--Summer Thoughts

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the MEI or Multivariate ENSO Index and how this was a better overall measure of ocean-atmosphere conditions. It takes into account not only sea surface temperatures but sea level pressure, surface temperature, wind and cloud cover.

The update shows a significant increase in El Nino conditions. Given the neutral conditions that existed over the last several months, the events that best fit so far are indicated below. We have a way to go before we reach the MODERATE EL NINO events of 1986 and 2002 in their early stages.

Sub surface warmth continues to move eastward and closer to the surface similar to the El Nino event of 1997-98.

Will the MEI reach 1997 or 1982 levels by the middle of the summer?

Klaus Wolter summarizes the conditions succinctly here:

"I looked at the nearest-ranked Feb-Mar MEI values, and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Nov-Dec. Of the 9 cases selected in this fashion, three remained either neutral (1960) or dropped back to La Niña status within a year (1961, 1984). The other SIX cases look like a roll-call of historic El Niño events since 1950: 1957-58,'65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-88, and '97-98."

He continues:  "Not only does this confirm the increased odds of an El Niño in 2014 (first pointed out four months ago on this wepage), it also translates into higher odds for a moderate-to-strong El Niño" 

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Using 1963, 68, 86, 91, 94, 2002 and 2006 as the best fit years taking into account the MEI and early stages of a MODERATE EL NINO, the summer temperatures versus average look like this:

If we include the years during the early stages of the STRONG EL NINO events of 1982 and 1997 weighting them the same along with the other years above, we get this:

 If the STRONG EL NINO years are weighted DOUBLE, we get this:  COOLER SUMMER!

The bottom line is this summer's temperature outlook will be determined heavily on how strong this El Nino becomes. Final SUMMER OUTLOOK will be broadcast in early May on WJW FOX 8. 

Spring Rains, Wet Snow Next Week?

I'm back from a few days off last week bringing in more rain!  At least its not snow....not yet anyway. Here are the current radar images for northern Ohio and the Ohio Valley. CLICK HERE for the current RADAR LOOP.



Rainfall will be between 1/2 and 3/4" with locally heavier amounts by Tuesday mid morning.

It should come as no surprise that the long range outlook for next week is STILL showing temperatures cold enough for wet snow. Notice how next week's cold is very similar to the last time we had 2 or more inches of snow in mid April.

Digging Deeper For Signs Of The Next El Nino

After reading several posts which posed the question of whether a "Super El Nino" will develop this summer, I wanted to find more data to shed light on what to look for in the upcoming weeks. These articles have sited sea surface temperature comparisons to 1997 both on the surface and below, ocean heat content, the building Kelvin Wave and subsequent changes in atmospheric winds.  All seem very valid. Let's review:

Comparing the sea surface temperatures on March 24th of this year to 1982, 1997 and 2002 (a weak El Nino year), each shows some warming in different locations at least on the surface. I circled the area in question in red. This is why we can't use a two dimensional sea surface temperature map as the only El Nino indicator.

 

Ocean Temperatures have been climbing in the western Pacific over the last 30 days. Notice the bubble of warmth between 100 and 200 meters.

Sub surface heat continues to build since the beginning of the year (see above). It compares very well to the onset El Nino of 1997. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows this very well.

HUGE spike in near surface ocean heat last 4 weeks

2002 was a weak El Nino year. The subsurface heating was nowhere as warm.

Comparing the sea surface temperatures on March 24th of this year to 1982, 1997 and 2002 (a weak El Nino year), each shows some warming in different locations at least on the surface. I circled the area in question in red. This is why we can't use a two dimensional sea surface temperature map as the only El Nino indicator.

The Southern Oscillation Index (Pressure index comparing sea level pressure at Darwin, Australia to Tahiti--30 day monthly moving mean) suddenly dropped into heavy El Nino territory.

Yet one index that blends together BOTH the changing ocean characteristics and the atmospheric conditions above it hasn't caught onto the idea...at least yet. Interestingly I haven't found much mention of this. This is called the Multivariate ENSO Index. The index includes several elements into its index: Sea surface temperatures, wind speed and direction, sea level pressure and temperature along with total cloud cover/fraction of the sky. Details are here on ESRL SITE.  Similar to the ONI Index, the MEI Index is calculated using overlapping 2 month periods. Since it takes into account many other atmospheric variables, the El Nino or La Nina signature may lag a bit compared to the others But in my opinion, it gives a better overall representation of the ENSO state even though it might be late to the party.

So far, the MEI is far ahead of 1982 and 1997, yet no positive numbers have shown up. Remember that The MEI is an overlapping bi-monthly indicator. So when the April update comes out (probably the first week of April), it will illustrate the conditions (ocean and atmospheric) for the FEBRUARY-MARCH overlap. If a  significant El Nino is truly developing, a SIGNIFICANT JUMP in the MEI would indicate it THIS SPRING as it did in 1982 and 1997. Check out the chart below for the past trend.

Be careful, the 1986 and 2002 MEI trends were SIMILAR to this year. Those years were weaker El Nino years.

Notice the MEI trends in 1986 and 2002.  Where will the MEI end up this summer?

So what's going to happen? Will the MEI match up with the MEI indices of the past El Ninos circled in black above. Will it mirror 2002 or 1986?

How will this effect out summer weather? 

The next 6 weeks will tell us a great deal.