Awesome Power of Lightning

This video was taken from a security camera from outside the Saratoga Spring Performing Arts Center at the Saratoga Spa State Park in New York back on June 3rd. Notice the tree at the top of the screen below the "4" in "2014".

This is what 50,000+ degrees and a million volts of electricity can do in a fraction of a second.

Current Northern Ohio Radar Loop and Temperatures

CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND CURRENT OHIO TEMPERATURES




OHIO TEMPERATURES


OHIO VALLEY RADAR LOOP



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Why Do We Dismiss The Science Of Weather So Easily?

Weather is just as much psychology as it is science. I've written about this several times HERE, HERE, and HERE. 

 I call it "Behavioral Meteorology".

Most people find it very difficult to grasp the fact that the weather is one big approximation.  Weather should be exact right?  Well, we humans hate probability.  Why? For our minds to grasp probabilities and randomness, we need to be able to handle multiple possible outcomes at once. We all want a forecast that fits a nice and neat one-size-fits-all package.  Weather has many, many outcomes over a large area over a significant period of time. Change the initial weather conditions (humidity, wind flow, frontal position, upper level energy, etc) and you create more uncertainty. Factor in time and the probability becomes significantly higher. We want to visualize a line of showers that moves in at a specific time, stays for a select amount of time and then moves out without fanfare. Unfortunately, rain events especially the hit and miss storms that we’ve had across the area recently rarely behave in this manner.

I'd like to say that I make a forecast whether short or long term with a cold, rational, scientific eye but I don't. I take into account how the general public will react to EVERY word knowing that most selectively perceive the weather to fit their "sphere of reality". I learned that quickly years ago. For all of the simulations, super-computers, highly detailed satellite data, it doesn't matter how exact your forecast is or what scientific reasoning you used in coming to your conclusion, people will ignore the facts and the data that disagree with their perceptions and will "rationalize" what they want and react accordingly. More often than not, the reactions are very critical. Worse still, its accumulative. The more we selectively perceive the weather to fit our negative connotation, the more hyper critical our reaction and the more rigid our bias becomes. Its a vicious circle that feeds on itself.  I’ve notice this change over the last 10-15 years. This is called the Disconfirmation Bias. Its the tendency to accept supportive evidence of a belief uncritically, but to discount evidence that challenges that belief.  

Recently, many have already postulated that this string of 80+ degree warmth is proof that this summer will be warmer than we thought.  Its a classic example of the RECENCY EFFECT: This is the tendency to think that more recent trends and patterns we observe (which are more recent in our minds like our recent mild winters) are a very good representation of the entire period in question. We believe our memories and observations--recent warmth and humidity--are excellent predictors of what the near future will bring.  Throw in the thousands of weather apps out there that claim to provide the forecast for YOUR location along with the laundry list of cognitive biases (some mentioned above) and you have the confluence of many psychological elements that are difficult to overcome with rational discussion.

It all goes back to basic human nature. A good weather narrative or story is desired versus something data/science driven. Nebulous weather data and science makes most of us feel uncomfortable even if the on-air meteorologist has the best of intentions.  Sophisticated computer models of the weather have made some very good “probabilistic” outcomes for weather events and situations.. Yet a level of uncertainty still remains and we humans don’t like it! We try to rationalize the irrational. Our biases quickly dismiss the probabilistic science as irrelevant or at the very worst, an excuse.

Each day, I analyze the science and remember the psychology. How you react when you hear a weather forecast? Do you dismiss the science? How do you handle probability? Do you like hearing an explanation to why the weather does what it does? Do you overly simplify the weather?

Deep thoughts this morning...Hmmmmm.

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Spring Weather Scorecard for Cleveland, Ohio

Our meteorological spring (March through May) has continued the unsettled pattern we established in winter somewhat. Temperatures have seemed cooler. Rainfall amounts have seemed above normal. What do the numbers say? Where does this spring rank over the last 30 years?  How about all-time?

Our average high temperatures this spring are running slightly cooler than last year. It has been the 7th coolest spring last 30 years and 67th warmest on the all-time (143 years of record keeping). Remember two years ago? 2012 was the warmest spring EVER.  Yet 2008 and 2005 were COOLER.

How about rainfall? The recent rains and flash flooding give us the perception that this spring was record-setting. This spring ranks 9th wettest over the last 30 years.  We forget 2011. That was the wettest spring EVER. Look at the years circled in green below. The springs in 2011, 2008, 2004, 2003 and 2002 were wetter than this year.

What does this tell us about this upcoming summer?  Not much. Can we use heavy spring rainfall as a predictor of the number of 90 degree days in the upcoming summer?  Not really. In the summers that followed in those wet spring years, here is the 90 degree day breakdown: 

2011:  12
2008:    6
2004:    1
2003:    5
2002:  17

So spring rains are not an accurate predictor of 90 degree days in summer. What we are continuing to watch is the evolving El Nino. I wrote extensively about El Nino and summer outlooks in April and early May HERE, HERE and HERE so check out those links. The outlook for slightly below normal temperatures this summer still stands.

Feedback is always welcome.

Vivid Lightning Photos

A cluster of storms developed over the western basin of Lake Erie around 6PM Wednesday evening. It continue to slide southeast through Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina and Summit counties. Viewers captured these cloud to cloud lightning strikes.

Never Trust A Warm Front--Heavy Rain Again!

"Never Trust A Warm Front"!

These words of Dick Goddard and Andre Bernier have also been echoed by myself over the years after forecasting many heavy rain and nighttime severe weather events in northern Ohio, West Virginia and St. Louis going back more than 20 years.

Why are warm fronts so tricky? The dynamics of a warm front are completely different than a cold front. The cross section of each tell the story on how the air is stacked above each front. A more detailed technical discussion is located on this site with a nice powerpoint download.

Cold Front Cross Section

Warm Front Cross Section

Clusters of "blob-like" storms tend to develop along warm fronts. These clusters start vie for position and dominance as they move into areas more conducive for sustainability. One cluster robs another of energy/moisture in order to sustain itself while other might shrink.  Yet several clusters might merge together to form one super cluster as was the case on Monday, May 12th. Radar loop is over approx 40 minutes from 8PM to 8:40PM over northern Ohio.

The combination of a moisture-laden atmosphere, rapidly rising and divergent (separating air) at the top of the storms along with hyper-local changes as the storms evolve over a small area make these clusters very difficult to predict more than a few hours in advance in many instances. Their non-linear nature makes it very difficult to determine an accurate track and duration.  They can become especially powerful during the overnight/predawn hours. The high resolution NAM below (future radar) shows several clusters overnight Tuesday into Wednesday more than 24 hours in advance. Their movement is usually west to east or northwest to southeast along the warm frontal boundary.

Compare that to what a "typical" line of storms looks like along a powerful cold front.

So watch the radar below tonight and early Wednesday for the "cluster-type" setup. These clusters can accelerate and morph into hail producing, high wind storms easily reach severe limits.

I GUARANTEE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN 1" OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY!

Weekend Northern Ohio Radar Loops - Temperatures

CHECK OUT THE CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND CURRENT OHIO TEMPERATURES




Current OHIO temperatures


Current Ohio Valley radar loop


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Radar Loops, Heavy Rainfall Forecast

More steady rainfall today. CHECK OUT THE CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND CURRENT OHIO TEMPERATURES...RAINFALL FORECAST AT THE BOTTOM




Current OHIO temperatures


Current Ohio Valley radar loop



Projected rainfall amounts are significant. Flash Flood Watch will need to be issued later today by the NWS.

Severe Weather, Heavy Rain Outlook

The same system that produced the severe weather Monday has stalled across Ohio focusing more rain and storms over the next 36 hours. Notice the amount of moisture and its Gulf of Mexico origin.

Precipitable Water: WARMER colors mean more available moisture

Projected rainfall amounts are significant. Flash Flood Watch will need to be issued later today by the NWS.

Northern Ohio radar loop


Current OHIO temperatures


Current Ohio Valley radar loop

Northern Ohio Severe Weather Recap. ONE TORNADO CONFIRMED

A pretty big weather day yesterday across northern Ohio. Many severe storms with heavy rainfall (2-5"), 1" hail reported & tornado warnings. 

Many people have complained about our "wall-to-wall" coverage saying that nothing was happening and it wasn't worth it. "No tornadoes on the ground so what is the point of coverage like this?" a few said via Facebook and Twitter.  While its easy to lump this event in with all of the others, this round of severe storm was very different than other severe weather events we've had in the recent past in northern Ohio. Why? First, many of the severe cells had the classic hook echo characteristic indicating strong counter clockwise winds which often indicate a tornado. Thankfully, only ONE TORNADO was confirmed in Lorain County. I thought we'd end up with 4 or 5 easily.

Secondly, many cells also had strong changes in wind direction embedded within them. By using the "Velocity Scan", we can determine which cells have rotational signatures by recognizing those small scale wind direction changes. Green colors mean wind moving toward the radar. Red colors mean wind is moving away. Notice the abrupt change and the implied rotation.

For these reasons, the National Weather Service issued tornado warnings. As a public service, it is mandatory to inform the public of the tornado warnings. Given the numerous storms, we needed to break into programming to cover this event BIG TIME! 

For those of you who claim that more tornado warnings are being issued for northern Ohio, that's not the case. After doing some exhausting research compiling tornado warning history, I found that the issuance of tornado warnings at the National Weather Service office in Cleveland, Ohio (our home office) is trending lower since the early 1990s. Also, the percentage of tornado warnings that result in actual tornadoes here in northern Ohio during the same period is comparable to the national average.

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As we recap yesterday's severe weather, its a good idea to review what constitutes a severe thunderstorm as defined by the National Weather Service.

Most storms NEVER reach severe limits. A very small number of severe storms actually produce a tornado. That's comforting news for all of us. That said, the mere mention of the word "severe" has extreme connotations. Many people believe that the word "severe" means "tornado". Nothing could be further from the truth. Here are the tornado facts and figures that I hope set the record straight.

* 5% of storms are severe. Only 1% of storms produce tornadoes

* Tornado warnings are issued for about 75% of all tornadoes

* In 2007, the National Weather Service started to issue warnings on a more local level versus on a county basis. These "polygons" localize the threat inside a specific part of a county.

* Tornadoes occur over a wide spectrum of strengths, sizes, and lifetimes.  Of the 800–1400 tornadoes reported in the United States each year, about 86% can be characterized as weak, 13% as strong, and 1% as violent.  

* In general, weak tornadoes (86%) have lifetimes less than 10 min, widths around 100 m (yards) and paths less than 1.6 km (1 mile) in length.  National Weather Service radars can complete ONE SCAN every 4 to 6 minutes! 

* Typical tornadic wind speeds are on the order 110 mph.   

* The average “lead time” for tornado warnings was less than 5 min in the late 1980s. By the late 1990s, lead time was up to 10 minutes; 13 minutes today (2014)

* National Weather Service forecasters provided a 24-minute lead time for tornado warnings in Joplin, Missouri back in 2011, almost TWICE the national average. 

* According to one study in 1978, there was a 22% probability of tornado detection with a 3 minute warning lead time. By 1998, the probability had jumped to 65%!