Why the increase in SEVERE WEATHER this spring?

UPDATE 4/28/2011:

Yesterday will go down as the worst tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak in 1974 which included the Xenia tornado in Southwest Ohio.  Here is roofcam video of a mile-wide tornado that went through Tuscaloosa, Albama.



The final tornado and fatality numbers will be adjusted as the official survey the damage. Here is a look at the storm reports. The tornado reports are highlighted in red.  More than 160 IN JUST ONE DAY.

Great video of a storm chase/tornado in North Carolina from earlier in the month

Why the sudden increase in severe weather? Is it Global Climate Change?  Is it natural climate shifts?  Probably a mixture of both...The driver we will focus on is the role the Pacific Ocean plays inour weather patterns here in Northern Ohio.

The ocean temperatures go through cycles warm and cold, wet to east. This year, the ocean water temperatures are warm west and cold east near South America. This is called LA NINA. Here is an animation of the current ocean temperatures compared to normal. Notice the blue shades east.

This cooling east and warming west causes storms to develop west near Australia.

The ups and downs in the atmosphere causes the jet stream to change causing it to dive into the Great Lakes and into Ohio. Notice the "wet" green area in the Ohio Valley and the shades of red in the deep south.

Our rainfall in Northeastern Ohio has been well above normal this month.

Last year (2010), La Nina hadn't kicked in.  While we did have tornadoes in Ohio (the first graphic below showing locations and intensities last year), the country had far less tornadoes overall compared to 2008; another LA NINA YEAR!

"LA NINA" springs tend to feature greater than normal numbers of tornadoes.  The graph below shows the frequency of F4 and F5 tornadoes compared to LA NINA and EL NINO years. The LA NINA numbers are shown in the red.

Can we expect tornadic weather here in Cleveland and Northeastern Ohio this spring and summer?  Eventually yes.

Here is a loop of the storm reports for the first two weeks of June 2008, a year similar to 2011 when comparing severe weather. Notice the severe storms are further north than the recent outbreaks.

So as the temperatures rise, expect our severe weather chances to increase across Ohio into June and July

Stay Tuned!!!

Opening Day and Record High Temps

Weather and baseball are two of my passions since childhood.  I can't remember the first time I really had a genuine interest in atmospheric science.  I've been swing a baseball bat ever since I could pick one up when I was 2 years old.  The time between seasons is kind of a let-down.  Continuous cold bouts here in Cleveland coupled with unpredictable lake effect snow events with countless "Alberta Clipper" snows (fast moving cold fronts from Canada) make the months of November, December, January and February slow to a crawl.

As Opening Day neared this year, I was tossing around several ideas on combining weather and baseball into an article. The weather has been cold.  Fans dream of a far off day when the temperatures get to a tolerable level--anything above 40!   Then it hit me:  Has anyone performed a correlation between Opening Day and record high temperatures?  If not, then now is a good time considering most of the eastern half of the country has experienced below normal temperatures from early December to late February.  People want warmth and they want it now.  Why not go for the extreme! Check out how much of the country has been below normal this winter...



Many historical articles on weather and baseball have been written for sure. Yet not many on Opening Day, Baseball and Record High Temperatures. More specifically, have we ever broke a high temperature on Opening Day in ANY GAME?

I first narrowed my search to teams that have a history that goes back to the early 20th century.  The final list of teams were:  BOSTON, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NEW YORK, ST. LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO AND ATLANTA (Including Boston Braves). I chose the Cubs versus the White Sox since there history goes back further.  I also threw Atlanta in the list due to their southern latitude. 

All 9 teams have played in 1108 games on Opening Day at their home ballpark through 2010.

Cross-referencing these games with the record high temperature on that day in THAT year, I came up with only 8 games where we broke the high temperature:

4-15-1941  Philadelphia A's vs Boston Braves - W 6-5

4-21-1921 Boston Braves vs. Washington Senators - L 1-0
4-20-1945 Boston Braves vs. Philadelphia A's - L 5-3

4-22-1938 New York Yankees vs. Washington Senators - W 7-0
4-17-1945 New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxs - W 8-4

4-22-1925 St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds - W 12-3
4-9-2001 St. Louis vs. Coloroado Rockies - W 3-2

4-16-1896 Cicninnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates - L 9-1

Weather records go back to the late 1800s for the cities in the east.  Historical weather is highlighted by the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s.  So I figured I would have found more records broke in the dust bowl days of the 1930s.  That wasn't the case.  Temps were cooler than average.

Average temps in April from 1931-1940 are seen here:

 

How about the warm decade of the 2000s according to NASA?  Also, not the case. Just one record high temperature was reached in the 2000s.

Average temps in April from 2001 to 2010 is seen here:

The chances of breaking a record high temperature on Opening Day in your home ballpark is more luck of the draw. It only happens 0.7% of the time.  I'll take those horrible chances than another Opening Day 2007 at Jacobs Field:  Snow, wind, temperatures in the upper 20s.

The Last Push of Winter Ahead

Its been a rough winter for Northeastern Ohio.  Almost 60 days with highs below freezing. More than 80 days with snow on the ground. How about an end?

Well not quite.  The overall pattern of colder air pushing south hasn't really let up.  With the exception of a few brief respites of 50 and 60 degree days over the last few weeks, the winter has been consistantly cold.

Last April was one of the warmest on record.

Now the details on what we are expecting for the rest of this month and April:

This winter has featured a strong La Nina.  This means that the Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to South America have been well below normal.

This shifts the jet stream over North America so that it drives cold fronts in from Canada.

This continued into early March.  Now that La Nina is finally weakening, the jet stream is backing off. This has allowed for warmer than normal air to push north into Ohio over the last few weeks.

Now, the long range outlook is for the La Nina pattern to reestablish itself one more time. Look at the temperature trend compared to normal for the first few days of April.  Its still trending a bit below normal.

The long range model still show temps staying well below normal through the 29th...

Heading into early April, the temps will probably not venture much above normal which is nearing 50 by Apri 1st.  Expecta continued cool and wet spring.

A Brief Explanation on NEUTRONS and NUCLEAR POWER

In school, I remember chemistry being easy to comprehend. Not to oversimplify the science but we mixed chemicals which we could smell and see and voila!  You get some totally different compound with hopefully some fire.  After all, what is chemistry class without fire.

Chemistry reactions result as elections change positions with other electrons with other atoms or molecules.  Physics reactions dive deeper.  The world of physics is much harder to conceptualize because the reactions that define this science occur at the level of the atom. In broad terms (not entirely accurate), an atom looks something like this:  Electrons orbiting around a nucleus of protons and electrons.

What is the particle that is responsible for nuclear reactions?  It is called the NEUTRON.  It resides inside the nucleus.  It wasn't discovered in 1932.  By 1942, it was used in the first nuclear chain reaction. Neutrons are very small.  You could fit more than 66 TRILLION NEUTRONS end to end on a meter stick.

The force that holds this ultra-small particle in the center contains billions and billions of times MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY than everyday chemical reactions.  Its even stronger than GRAVITY! This is what makes nuclear power so attractive.  

Our mind has a difficult time quantifying these changes because these reactions don't occur in our macroscopic world we observe each day.  it isn't until the byproducts of these reactions become a danger in our world we live in.  Unfortunately, the potential meltdown of the nuclear reactors in Japan and the explosions on the news have provided the framework for observation and criticism for all of us not familiar with nuclear technology. 

The fuel that is used in nuclear reactions, believe it or not, occurs in nature.  Uranium is a naturally occurring radioactive element.  It exists in several types. Uranium 235 and 238.  The numbers indicate the number of NEUTRONS IN THE NUCLEUS. 

In a nuclear reaction, the uranium is hit with a neutron.  The collision create tremendous amounts of energy, other elements (Krypton-92 and Barium-141) and MORE NEUTRONS which feed the reaction further.

Remember that the amount of Uranium in a power plant is small compared to necessary amount of coal needed to produce the same amount of energy.  One pound of uranium will provide the same amount of energy as burning 1,500 tons of coal. This is why a conversion to nuclear power has been desirable.  Its very efficient.

Comparing TSUNAMIS from OTHER EARTHQUAKES

Its interesting to watch how these tsunamis have propagated across the oceans of the world after some of the historic earthquakes.  As these maps indicated, the tsunami that hit Japan was not much different in extent than some of the others that originated from historic quakes of the past.  Working backward, we start with the most recent quake in Japan on March 11th

Next is the Chili quake from 2010.  The image has greater detail and the color table is a bit different than the other images

2004 earthquake in Sumantra

1975 quake in Hawaii.  Magnitude 7.2

1964 quake in Alaska. Magnitude:  9.2.  Second largest EVER RECORDED

1960 quake in Chili.  Magnitude:  9.5. LARGEST EVER RECORDED.  Larger image showing more of the world

1929 quake in eastern Canada. Tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean. Magnitude: 7.2

1918 Puerto Rico quake. Magnitude: 7.5

Finally, the 1755 quake in Portugal. Magnitude ~9.0

Japan's Nuclear Power vs United States vs France

The nuclear power plant catastrophe in Japan and the potential for a reactor meltdown has forced the US to look domestically raising the question of whether or not our nuclear plants are able to withstand earthquakes of a  magnitude 9.0 or other natural disasters that--prior to Friday--seemed at most a distant concern.

The United States is dependent on nuclear power just as Japan and other countries.  In order to take our nuclear power plants off-line to upgrade safeguards and structural elements, it would be difficult to make up the difference in loss of power generation.  While we are more dependent on coal/gas/oil, nuclear power is more prevalent in our country than what we hear in the news even here in Northeastern Ohio.

The Japanese use of nuclear power for electricity is significant but not as much as you might think given the video and pictures you see of the situation after the quake and tsunami.  37% of their energy is from nuclear power. 63% from fossil fuels and other sources.

How much electricial generation in the US is from nuclear power compared to other fuels?  We are far more dependent on Coal and gas than nuclear power. Yet our nuclear power produces 20% of our electricity.

What about France?  Yes, France.  They generate MORE POWER THROUGH NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY.  MORE THAN 75% OF THEIR ELECTRICITY IS FROM NUCLEAR REACTIONS! 

Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

Yet another natural disaster which is captivating the world.  The earthquake in Japan which measured a magnitude 9.0 (revised) was the strongest in history for Japan.

 The Japanese emergency warning system gave a 30 second warning.



Since the 9.0 on Friday, Japan has experienced more than 300 separate "aftershocks".  See the location of the quakes from Friday morning until early Sunday evening.

To put that into perspective, most of these aftershocks have been stronger than the quake that rattled NE Ohio and surrounding areas back on January 31, 1986.

Northern Ohio has areas that are susceptible to earthquakes

From the Ohio Seismic Network:  "Back then, destruction in the epicentral area was mostly minor. Merchandise fell from store shelves in Mentor, Painesville, and Chardon and buildings in these communities experienced varying degrees of cracked plaster and cracked or broken windows. Chimneys are particularly susceptible to damage or destruction from ground motion associated with moderate to strong earthquakes. There was, however, only one confirmed report of a chimney being toppled."

Earthquakes are measured with the Richter Scale. The Richter is "logarithmic" meaning that the increase goes up fast as the scale goes up.  So a magnitude 6.0 is 10 times as powerful at a 5.0.  A 7.0 is 100 times as powerful than a 5.0 and so on.  To put this into perspective, the quake that hit Japan was more than 10,000 TIMES MORE POWERFUL than the quake over Northeast Ohio back in '86!

So why all of these quakes?  Is anything different going on recently?  To better get an understanding on earthquakes, lets look at the area we call "The Pacific Ring of Fire".

The Ring of Fire is a battlezone between several "plates" that make up our continents. Keep in mind that the area of the earth where the continents plates reside is the top 25 miles or so.  These plates "float" on the hotter, more liquified inner portion of the earth.

Each one of these plate "rubs", subducts (or dives under) the neighboring plate.  When the friction between each plate gets to great, it causes an earthquake. Below is a cross-section of the Juan De Fuca Plate and the North American Plate which is responsible for the west coast earthquake activity.

 Where these plate converge, volcanoes also form as the plate push up the crust.

 Over millions of years, volcanoes formed along the Ring of Fire.

The earthquake activity from late Friday until late Sunday evening along the ring of fire.  This accounts for more than 90% of the global quakes.

If earthquakes occur under the ocean floor along one of the faultlines as the plates push up on the ocean, it can cause a ripple effect as it displaces the water above.

Since the tsunami (or seismic sea wave) occurs so far under water, the wavelength of the tsunami is very long.  In most instance, it can measure more than 200 miles from crest to trough.  This is why if your in a boat in the middle of the ocea, you won't much of a change. As the wave get closer to land, the wavelength gets shorter, the water gets higher.

These seismic sea waves can travel across the entire Pacific Ocean at speeds of more than 200 miles per hour. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a projected wave heights map for the Pacific Ocean. The area that is effected is enormous!            

The impact of the tsunami was fast. The travel times are below.

More updates as the nuclear reactor may meltdown.....