How Baseball Has Changed - Part II of II

Have the changes in baseball over the last 10-15 years created more offense?

Players are more productive if they swing at the first pitch. After a drop off in the early 2010s and a brief rise through 2019, first swing slugging is at mid 1990s levels.

The difference between first pitch slugging and taking first pitch slugging began to widen in the 2000s. A sign that if you are more aggressive first pitch, more good things happen.

Slugging percentage with runners in scoring position dropped off in the early 2010s then stabilized at late 1990s levels.

What about flyballs?  Slugging percentage started rising in the mid 2000s with a sharp jump after 2015 then a drop since 2020 to mid 2010 levels. Overall flyballs are resulting in more 2B/3B/HRs.

Significant increases in flyball slugging percentages of pulled balls peaking around 2020 then dropping off over the last 5 seasons to 2012 levels.

Opposite field flyball slugging was fairly flat between 2005 and 2015 as pulled flyball slugging rose. Between 2015 and 2020, oppo flyball slugging rose then fell back to 2004/2006 levels.

How about when the batter is ahead in the count?  Interestingly, slugging fell from 2000 to 2015 (brief jump 2015-2020) with levels back to 2015 levels since.

Slugging percentage after two strikes was steady from 1995 to 2005 then fell until 2015. Levels remain steady since 2015 after a small rise around 2020.

Plate appearances that result in a run when runners are in scoring position dropped in the mid 2010s then rose back to early 2000s levels.

Percentage of homeruns with runners in scoring position per plate appearance jumped around 2015 and leveled off last 4 seasons.

How Baseball Has Changed in 30 Charts - Part I of II

Baseball has gone through changes over the last generation.  The increase in data availability gives us insight on some of these changes. Below is a multitude of charts attempting to illustrate these changes. All data from Baseball-reference and Fangraphs.  All data represents MLB league wide. Part I features general offense and overall pitching.

How Does This Winter Compare To Last Winter So Far?

Winter technically didn't begin until December 21.  Yet the winter cold and snow started long before the solstice as it usually does.  This year has a bit different as it was continuously cold for longer (Thanksgiving to December 15) than in any early winter since 1958!

December cold was widespread across the northern and eastern parts of the US.  Well above normal west.

Snowfall has been well above normal across these areas:

Locally across northern Ohio, snowfall is at levels (through the first of year) unseen since 2021.

Seasonal Snowfall through January 1, 2025

Seasonal Snowfall through January 1, 2026

What Year Featured the Most Snow On Christmas?

I remember Christmas of 1982 fondly. Warmest ever in northern Ohio!

It's been a few years since I updated the Christmas Weather History Chart. Hard to believe it's been 6 years since we had significant snow on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. 

How often do we see snow on Christmas?  Here is the breakdown:

Coldest Start to December in Decades!

Since Thanksgiving, temperatures across most of the northern half of the US have been well below normal. The coldest regions are the upper mid-west and western Great Lakes.

The cold has extended into central Canada.

Snowfall so far this month:

Snowfall across the Mid-west, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley has been well above normal vs last year.

Look at the difference between last year through December 15 and this year:

Here in northern Ohio, we haven't experienced continuous cold like this between Thanksgiving and mid-December since 1958!

Seasonal snowfall is well above normal across northern Ohio with the most snow through December 15 since 2014.

Coldest Start to December in Northern Ohio in Years. Does It Continue?

Per the long range outlook issued back on November 11, the cold arrived around Thanksgiving weekend and has not looked back. 

Temperatures for the first 3 days of December have been well below normal across much of the US. 

The FOX 8 forecast continues to show well below normal temperatures.

The main drivers of the colder pattern are:  A favorable tropical Pacific (MJO in phase 7-8) and a bit of upper atmospheric warming over the North Pole.

The first 15 days of December look to stay below normal across northern Ohio for the first time since 2005!  It's only happened two other times in the last century.

Its not just here in Ohio. Most of the country has had well below normal temperatures since Thanksgiving week.

Here are a few years that were similar to the current cold:  Temperatures vs normal on the left.  Upper level pattern on the right.  Notice how widespread the cold was in each instance along with persistent low pressure around the Great Lakes/eastern US.

2010

2005

1989

1958

Interestingly, the cold during the first half of December has been continuous but it hasn't originated from over the North Pole.  High pressure near Alaska has developed from time to time over the last week which has kept the central US trough/active pattern with frequent precip/snow.  But it's strength has been fluctuating. The low over Hudson Bay is trapped in between the Alaskan high pressure ridge and the low over Greenland. Definitely no sustainable blocking pattern capable of tapping arctic air.

What has to happen for the colder pattern to become extremely cold?

The Greenland low needs to transition to a high pressure block along with a sustainable Alaskan block.  That hasn't happened...yet.

Recently, a huge drop in the SOI (southern oscillation index) occurred. This indicates huge pressure pattern changes between Australia and Tahiti in response to the tropical changes (MJO moving into phase 8)

Notice on the long range outlook into the second half of December.  BOTH blocks seem to develop:

WATCH FOR CONSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA

WATCH DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREENLAND

WATCH LOW DEVELOP CENTRAL US/HUDSON BAY

Here is the take home forecast message:

*  Cold continues but nothing extreme for southern Great Lakes through mid-December.

*  Active storm track continues with frequent snows across the central US/Great Lakes.

*  Short-lived break around December 16-18

*  Then cold reloads as blocking pattern establishes itself last 10 days of December/early January

Watch how the cold continues, a small break mid-month before the cold build around Alaska which heads south around the 20th.  Get ready for a Arctic Christmas!

First Snow Last Week. How About Thanksgiving Forecast and Beyond?

The first snow of the season occurred last week then quickly melted. 

How about Thanksgiving?  Back on November 11, I sent this text out to our weather department:

"...MJO is increasing in amplitude into phase 6,7 and 8. Pressure between Darwin station and Northern Australia (SOI) has just taken a significant drop a few days ago. Both of these strongly suggest that we will have a pretty significant warm-up the week of Thanksgiving...probably a few days well up into the '60s. Middle of the country could see some severe weather. Deep trough develops Central us and eventually migrates East. Potentially cold enough for some snow this Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving but more so the first week and a half of December. That should feature below normal temperatures, a couple of clipper systems and multiple rounds of lake effect."

SOI analog during a neutral ENSO shows the trough on day 22 after the drop.

SOI analog during La Nina snows a weak ridge with flanking trough on day 21 following SOI drop.

This is the graphic I started showing on November 12 for the week of Thanksgiving/first week of December and continued to show this week (Nov 17th).

All of this analysis was done outside long before the long range models had Thanksgiving and beyond in their solutions. 

Now, on November 17, the long range models are showing the huge west-to-east temperature difference Thanksgiving week:

Notice how the warmth doesn't last long.  Notice the ridge over Alaska (red) and the following trough (blue) in the central US.

Temperature forecast from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through November 30th.

Do I think this colder pattern early December last long?  Its looking more transient with some moderation around mid-month. Eventually the colder pattern will re-establish itself longer term after the New Year!