Tuesday, July 30, 2013

More "Summer Days in the 70s" Fun

When we think of June and July weather in northern Ohio, high humidity and temperatures in the 80s and 90s are at the top of the list. Cooler summer weather like what we are experiencing now tends to mess with our perceptions of summers past.  Consecutive days in the 70s in late July/early August become very uneasy to swallow.

Weather extremes evoke a very powerful cognitive bias we all have called hard wired into our DNA the "RECENCY EFFECT". This effect gives higher importance to events that have occurred more recently and lesser weight to events further back in time.  The last three summers (2012, 2011 and 2010) have all featured some record heat. These memories are more recent in our minds so we give them more credence than a distant memory of a summer in, say the early 1990s or early 2000s.

Viewer Facebook comments all illustrate this bias perfectly.  Most comment that this summer is so unusual. Most say that don't remember a summer like this in a long time. Yet summers like this one have occurred more often than most of us (myself included) realize. Best of all, we don't have to go that far back in time to find them.

Below is a chart that summarizes ALL of the summers (JUNE and JULY) over the last 30 summers COOLER than this summer. I only averaged the HIGH TEMPERATURES as most of us really don't remember nighttime lows. I listed each year from WARMEST to COOLEST. 


 I'm a stat guy so there is a lot of numbers here. The points that stand out are as follows: 

*  19 OF THE LAST 30 SUMMERS HAVE BEEN JUST AS "COOL" OR COOLER THAN THIS SUMMER. (SEE MY LAST POST)

*   7 SUMMERS (DAYTIME TEMPS) SINCE 2000 (2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009) HAVE BEEN "COOLER" THAN 2013

THE MAJORITY OF THESE "COOLER" SUMMERS HAD MORE DAYS IN THE 60s AND 70s THAN THIS SUMMER

* MOST OF THE "COOLER" SUMMERS SINCE 2000 ALL HAD STRETCHES OF "70 DEGREE TEMPS IN JULY" COMPARABLE TO THIS SUMMER

=====================================

The moral of the story is we all perceive this summer to be so earth-shatteringly COOL.  Yet even some of our more recent summers contrary to what our memories tell us have been just as cool.






Monday, July 29, 2013

July '13 Temperatures vs. July of 2012



July is coming to a close so I checked the high temperatures nationwide and compared them to July of last summer. First, the last 7 days (July 21 thru 27th)

POLAR OPPOSITES FOR SURE!
Now the last 30 days (June 28th thru July 27th). This takes into account the week of 90s in mid July for Ohio.

2012 WAS STILL A BLAST FURNACE COMPARED TO 2013
How does this summer stack up compared to the most recent summers? Here are the temperatures plotted over the last 30 years for Cleveland. I circled the years that parallel this summer. The most recent summer was not 2009 (as I initially thought) but 2008.

This summer compared to ALL SUMMERS since 1871? This summer circled in red on the right side.

It seems as if we've had "cooler" and "warmer" periods since the 1870s. This summer fits nicely inside our "warmer" trend since the late 1980s.

WILL WE SEE ANOTHER 90 THIS SUMMER? The pattern over the next two weeks will give us insight into the answer of that question.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Does the Homerun Derby REALLY mess up players swings?



I love posts that dispel myths of all sorts. After reading about the psychology of our love with fanciful stories (narratives) fueled by information that fits our preconceived notions versus solid data driven evidence (especially concerning economics and science) versus solid data driven evidence (especially concerning economics and science), its not hard to see how our worldly observations are heavily biased. We hate feeling conflicted; we hate to be wrong.

The baseball Home Run Derby is no different.

The myth goes like this: Most players who participate in the Home Run Derby will have their swings irrevocably altered the rest of the season resulting in a huge drop in home runs. 


A great post on Fan Graphs examines the data and found some interesting results that helps dispel this myth:  FANGRAPHS POST

  ===============
The Home Run Derby is kind of counter-intuitive to many MLB managers. Old-schoolers like Mike Scioscia would rather his players did not participate, saying, “I haven’t seen somebody come away from that derby and be a better player for it.”¹ The Home Run Derby turns the team game into an individual competition. Players exhaust themselves and risk tweaking their swings, but has the derby really affected the second-half performance of its participants?

To answer this question I looked at what goes into a player’s stats. There is a lot of luck involved in baseball, so I took a look at the differences in the way players hit the ball before the derby compared to after the derby. Looking at the past five derbies, I calculated the average batted-ball flight for players that were healthy for both halves of the season

The HR to FB ratio drops considerably, and could explain a decrease in batting average and slugging percentage, as well as on-base percentage. It seems that players hit the ball the same way, just with slightly less power.


The large drop is ISO shows that indeed power does decrease for derby participants in the second half, and the overall line shows that players do perform worse. It’s not merely a function of hitting the ball to the wrong place, as the .oo6 drop in Bating Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) is not really significant. Players strike out a little bit more, but the notion that players change their swings and have trouble hitting the ball the same way after participating in the derby seems misguided when considering the small change in K% along with the consistent batted-ball percentages outlined in the first table.
 ===============

So, NO CHANGE IN TYPES OF BALLS HIT. I speculate that (all other factors being equal) given the small 1% increase in strikeouts, the drop in power (home runs) in the second half of the season could be the result of fatigue.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

July 17th Drought Update

Drought conditions still exist in the west.

The corn belt is still enjoying good soil conditions.

HERE IS WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE IN JULY OF LAST YEAR


...NOW TODAY'S DROUGHT CONDITIONS


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Does Rainfall Effect High Temperatures?

90 degree heat is here and its been a long time coming. After a rainy/cooler than normal spring along with the more recent 8-10 inch rainfalls over the last two weeks, this round of warmth is a welcome break. I don't want to lessen the significance of the flooding last week since many areas are still cleaning up. But the heavy rains and subsequent saturated ground is a welcome sign as the daytime highs soar north of 90.

FOX8 Front yard on July 13th -- Lush Green Grass!


I talked about this earlier in the spring and summer:  WET GROUND SUPPRESSES HIGH TEMPERATURES!  Large scale factors like the heat dome overhead can override this effect somewhat depending on how large in extent the wet ground goes.

Here is a map of the rainfall numbers compared to normal for the first 14 days of July.


Here is the location of this VERY STRONG AND DEEP heat dome. The center is right over Ohio. The 600dm (decameters--height of the high pressure dome) is a rarity over Ohio. In fact, last summer, I don't recall the heat domes over ANY part of the US pushing above 600.

When you superimpose the heat dome location over the rainfall map, you see that the center is over the saturated ground over Ohio and Kentucky. High temperatures on Monday only hit 91.

Last year, the heat dome was well west of Ohio yet daytime highs in July reached 98 TWICE. The ground in the first weeks of July was incredibly dry!
  
Historically, 42% of our 90 degree days occur in July.

 
We had many more days above 95 in the 1940s and 1950s than we've had since.


So will the wet ground override the effects of the strong OHIO CENTERED heat dome over the next few days keeping temperatures in the 90 to 93 degree range versus what happened last year at this time? 

I say YES.  Check back on Friday as the heat retreats west.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Heavy Rain/Storms Continue Today: Day #16 and Counting



Towering Cumulus over Lake Erie: Photo by Scott Sabol
Did the thunder wake you up last night/early this morning? We still have MORE rain and storms today then a HUGE break tomorrow and this weekend. The forecast today goes like this: Morning storms move out over the next several hours...a nice break as the temps climb into the high 80s with hazy sun late morning/midday. The area circled on the left side of the map below shows where the redevelopment will occur later this morning along the sweeping cold front.




That redevelopment will make it into Ohio this afternoon/early evening. Some of these storms will reach severe limits (winds of at least 58 mph and/or 3/4" hail) Areas especially in Richland/Ashland Counties that have already received 5"+ of rain over the last 2 days will have high water problems made worse by this afternoon noon's rainfall.


Here are the impressive rainfall numbers: 

July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport.

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900.  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!


* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966

Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE NEVER GONE MORE THAN 7 DAY STRAIGHT WITH RAINFALL!

Just how rainy has it been since this stretch started?  Here are the rain totals over the last 5 years over the same days. These are the official numbers at Hopkins. Some areas have received DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS!



More later...

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Consecutive Rain Streak Continues...



"When will it end?!"

The collective question of all residents of northern Ohio is resonating loudly.  The answer is very soon. 

"This rain must be some sort of record", you ask.

The answer is we've had unsettled, rainy patterns in mid summer like this before. 2009 was one such summer. Temps were "cooler"...rainfall was plentiful. The recency effect (the cognitive bias which weighs current events with more importance than past events) is at work here.  Our perceptions of weather extremes are a prime example of this.

While above normal rainfall has occurred in the past, its the "frequency of the rain" this summer that sits at the front of our memory. Here are the bullet points:

* July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport. 

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900. (Yes, I looked at over ten thousand days of data--10,488 days...whew).  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!

* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966


Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE HAD LESS THAN 7 DAY STRETCHES WITH RAINFALL!





The streak should end at 16 days when the first cold front in several weeks changes the pattern into the weekend.

Monday, July 08, 2013

Cabrera and Davis Leading The Way

Courtesy: ESPN

I distinctly remember looking at Miguel Cabrera's stats a few years ago after 6+ years in the big leagues and speculated:  IF he kept up his pace through his prime years and into his early 30s, his overall numbers would look real Hall of Fame-like.  Here we are 3 years later. His numbers haven't wavered. The pace he's on is historic and he's getting better at the age of 30! All of this happening a decade AFTER the long ball era  faded into the baseball traditionalist world for further debate.

Courtesy: MLB.si

Not to be overlooked is Chris Davis's season:  0.320 average, leading MLB in slugging with 33 homers, 85 RBI a week before the All-Star break. Statistical speculation for Davis is tough considering his sporadic playing time before last season since 2008. Prior to last season, he played in 100 games only one time. His 2012 season was impressive with 33 homers, 85 RBI.  So impressive are his numbers this season, only 7 players have had MORE homers before the All-Star break.

Both Cabrera and Davis are entering into downright historic single season statistical territory. Here are the HOME RUN and RBI lists through the All-Star Break. Both Cabrera and Davis are climbing high.

The list of 30+ homer season BEFORE the All-Star Break is impressive

Most RBIs before the All Star Break:
 



Friday, July 05, 2013

Hot Dogs and The Law of Diminishing Returns

The Law of Diminishing Returns as it relates to food intake is one of the most underrated laws of the universe. Most think of gravity as a universal law experienced everywhere. But when it pertains to the consumption of certain foods and beverages, this law is as ubiquitous as any physical law.

The basic premise of the Law of Diminishing Returns as it relates to food and drink is this:

You believe that each successive helping of food will replicate the pleasure you experienced with the first helping. You've convinced yourself of this.  Nothing will alter your belief.  It becomes an absolute.  You are hellbent on recreating that euphoria.  Nothing will stop you. After you finished eating or drinking any successive helping, disappointment settles in as you realize it didn't taste as good as the first.  You question the food.  You question yourself saying silently "What am I doing?" That realization hits you hard. You experience a rapid and intense depression.

A mistake was been made.  You become hard on yourself and wonder out loud why you continued with that second helping knowing full well that your glutinous behavior would be an exercise in futility.  Your confidence returns and you swear you will NEVER make the same mistake again.  Yet in the near future, when the same opportunity presents itself, you do exactly the opposite believing that the Law of Diminishing Returns no longer applies.  The process repeats endlessly with nothing learned.  Don't pretend that this has not happened to you.

This Law applies to these select foods and drinks without fail:

HOT DOGS
DONUTS
COFFEE
CHEESY POTATOES (ASK MY BROTHER ABOUT THIS ONE)
EGG NOG
SWEDISH MEATBALLS
DESSERTS ONLY FOUND AT FAMILY REUNIONS USUALLY MADE BY A GREAT AUNT YOU ONLY SEE ONCE A YEAR
CREAM SODA


The inverse of this law applies to these foods:

PIZZA
GARLIC BREAD
HOT WINGS
LASAGNA
CHICKEN
CHOCOLATE CHIP COOKIES
BROWNIES
FRENCH FRIES
BEER


Do you have any foods to add to these lists?

Thursday, July 04, 2013

Independence Day Quotes


As I get older, I have a more profound appreciation for history.  We learn the nuts and bolts, all of the straightforward facts and figures in grade school.  We know the important dates, places and persons for the most part.  Its the finer more intricate stories and events that don't get the publicity I find more appealing and enlightening now that I have some years behind me for perspective.

The Age of Enlightenment was running at full steam as America was solidifying its identify in colonial America. I liken the term "enlightenment" to having a larger perspective in your world view.  The Founding Fathers certainly had that trait in abundance. Jefferson was a polymath; fluent in 5 languages and had a deep interest in philosophy, science and architecture. He was the foreign minister to France and Secretary of State before becoming President. He kept detailed weather records and invented some of the mechanisms he incorporated into his house on Monticello.

John Adams isn't as celebrated at Jefferson but was his equal in many ways. He became a lawyer as a young age. He was a keep observer of the world and utilized his observations in formulating his social views.  He drafted Massachusetts state constitution himself and worked with Jefferson in the formation of the government of the young United States. They both began a correspondence that last almost 15 years and more than 150 letters. If you have the chance, read some of these letters.  They were eerily prophetic on the future of the country. 

I leave you with some quotes from my two favorite Founding Fathers on this Independence Day: Enjoy and remember the people who came before us both in American history and in the recent past both domestic and abroad.

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”.
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

“I always consider the settlement of America with reverence and wonder, as the opening of a grand scene and design in providence, for the illumination of the ignorant and the emancipation of the slavish part of mankind all over the earth.
-John Adams (1735-1826)

“Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean of the characters and conduct of their rulers.
-John Adams (1735-1826)

“The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.”
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)


“I am well aware of the toil and blood and treasure it will cost us to maintain this declaration, and support and defend these states. Yet through all the gloom I see the rays of ravishing light and glory. I can see that the end is worth all the means. This is our day of deliverance.”
-John Adams (1735-1826)


“Equal and exact justice to all men — freedom of religion, freedom of the press, freedom of person under the protection of the habeas corpus; and trial by juries impartially selected, these principles form the bright constellation which has gone before us.”
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)