Mid to late June 2019 Outlook

We start with the northern Pacific: 

The pressure patterns show a pretty consistent storm track off of Asia east into the northern Pacific undercutting the Bering Sea high as of June 4th.

Superimposing the US over the Bering Sea region--Bering Sea Rule--you can see how the actual storm track line up with the continental US down the road--8 days and 16 days out.  A fairly persistent eastern US trough with the central US high pressure ridge.

This pattern is pretty different from the late May pattern which featured the SE ridge east and the central US trough which drove the heavy rainfall across the corn belt.

Another interesting feature has been the "Greenland Block". We noticed this earlier in May. A high latitude block like this does what it's name says.  It block the pattern thus the heavy rain/high soil moisture content this spring.

This Greenland Block can't be ignored this month. Notice how the high over Greenland continues through mid month.  The trough redevelops over the eastern US. 

The daily SOI changes (Southern Oscillation Index--difference in pressure pattern between Darwin and Tahiti) offer some additional insight.

There have been some decent rises and falls over the last week. 

SOI rises similar historically correspond to short-lived high pressure over the eastern US at day 17, 20 and 23.  Notice on day 23, it also shows a southern low over Texas. 

DAY 17 after RISE

DAY 20 after RISE

DAY 23 after RISE

SOI drops historically show these pressure patterns:

Notice the eastern ridge is further off the coast and an Ohio Valley low with a central US ridge...

Day 20 analog show the ridges pretty strong with the Ohio Valley low breaking down a bit...

Day 23 shows the lingering southern US/Ohio Valley low with high pressure continuing to flank it.

While these rises and falls show some conflicting signals, the idea for a southern storm position between the 24th and the 27th seems pretty good. Long range projections show pretty good agreement on well above normal rainfall across the southern states over the next 14-17 days. I believe this trend will continue into the last week of the month.

In summary, this is how I envision the next 3 weeks overall:

*  Storm track takes a southern route heading into mid June/3rd week of the month. 
*  Small periods of heat but nothing sustainable through June 20th

* June 5-9:  Temperatures near normal/slightly above

* June 10-14:  Temperatures below normal

* June 6-14:  Rainfall near normal with longer breaks in between weather systems

* June 15-20:  Temperatures near normal.  Little chance of any extreme heat (90+) or long                                         stretches (3-5 days+) of 85-90 degree heat

* June 20-27:  Temperatures near/slightly above normal. 



How do we derive these long range outlooks?   Here is brief explainer with a few other links:


* Outlooks are different than day-to-day outlooks

* Summer Outlook Elements From 2015

* Why We Dismiss Science So Easily?

* Evolution and Devolution of Social Media Comments

Does Late May Team wOBA Indicate Team's Post Season Chances?

Here are the wOBA ranks for each of the last 10 season at the end of May.  (Fangraphs has an excellent tutorial on their website on what wOBA is an why this statistic is much better than batting average or on-base percentage)

Red teams indicate AL teams that made it to the post season. Blue teams National League. "W" are wild card teams:

While there are certainly some exceptions (total of only 5 teams) 81 of the 86 teams that have made the playoffs in the last 10 years have had better wOBA than the Indians as of this writing.

Unless the Indians offense gets better at the chances of them making the playoffs are extremely Slim.

2010 wOBA ranks

2011 wOBA ranks

2012 wOBA ranks

2013 wOBA ranks

2014 wOBA ranks

2015 wOBA ranks

2016 wOBA ranks

2017 wOBA ranks

2018 wOBA ranks

2019 wOBA ranks

Spring Rainfall/Temperatures/Cloud Cover

April/May 19th cloud cover for each day in Cleveland and Akron

* Bottom of each graph is the ground. Top of graph is 30,000 feet
* Light blue color indicates clear skies
* Black/Grey color indicates cloud cover

Notice more cloudy days this year compared to last year over the same period. Also, Akron has had less cloud cover overall.

CLEVELAND: April-May 2018

CLEVELAND:  April-May 20, 2019

AKRON:  April-May 2018

AKRON: April-May 20, 2019

Mid April-Mid May: Ohio rainfall and temperatures vs normal since 2015

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Late May-Early June Outlook

So far our spring weather has been less than desirable. Many have said that this spring has been the worst spring in a long time with many believing that rainfall must be close to a record for spring.

Rainfall since April 15th has been well above normal (normal is 3.7"). Interestingly rainfall has been almost identical to the last 2 spring seasons.

So why does it seem that the weather recently has been much worse?

I used 3 different measures in determining how the spring has gone. 

* Number of days with rainfall

* Cloudy Days (at least 50%)

* Temps vs normal

I used the last 30 days (April 15 - May 15) as the time period.

Sure enough, we've had more rainy days and cloudy days for sure with very little breaks.  But contrary to popular belief, the temperatures have not been all that cooler than normal. 

Will the pattern start to dry out or will a rainy pattern redevelop in the long term?

The PNA is starting a dive below normal in the next 10 days. By itself, this indicates troughiness west and ridging (warmth) eastern half of the US.

The Euro has been picking up on this configuration for a few days. A brief warmup this weekend (May 18-19), a break followed by the ridge blowing up and expanding north to start Memorial day weekend!

Earlier in the week (May 13th), I tweeted the SOI (southern oscillation index) changes and the matching 500 mB composites for the end of the month.  Based on these, the pattern looks to do two things:  First the SE ridge flattens out and shifts south.  Secondly, the storm track re-positions itself back through the middle of the US.   The EURO is starting to pick up on this flattening by the 27th of May.

If all of this evolves like I think it will, rainfall will be above normal by month's end across the central US and portions of the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures for the Ohio Valley will be normal to slightly above normal with frequent rain systems with little breaks to start June. Will this above normal rainfall effect temperatures in early summer?   Very good chance

Lake Erie is quickly reaching near record levels

Interesting Iowa Corn Yield Data

Per Iowa Extension Agents: 

"At the state level historical USDA-NASS data indicates that if 50 percent of the corn is planted before May 15 the chances for high yield potential still exists (Figure 1). In only five of 40 years the 50 percent corn planting point has not occurred before May 15. In each of those five years, the statewide corn yield was below trend line."

14 day rainfall vs normal. Heaviest rain across Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, northern Illinois. Below normal rainfall in Iowa.

Long range projections show significant rainfall across the cornbelt over the next 10 days

EURO 10 day rainfall totals

GFS 10 day rainfall totals

Lake Erie Ice Images

Cool Lake Erie ice coverage images courtesy of the European Space Agency Sentinel-L2 and L3 satellites. Notice the surface inconsistencies of the ice and the BIG crack/gap highlighting the unstable nature of the ice field. First image is from the MODIS satellite. The remaining images (courtesy ESA - Sentinel L2 and L3 satellite) start over the eastern basin from Buffalo to Erie, PA where the ice thickness is greatest. Notice the mid-lake crack which is roughly 2 miles wide.

Our vantage point from the shoreline is short. Notice how highly variable the ice coverage is as you continue out onto the lake

MODIS Satellite from Friday 3/8/2019

Sentinel L3 image - Satellite 3/9/2019

Thickness will continue to drop along the shoreline to between 1-2 inches

 at most by the end of the week. STAY AWAY FROM THE ICE!

Jose Ramirez's Offensive Cool-Down in 2018

Jose Ramirez was in the midst of an historical season for the Cleveland Indians. His offensive numbers have cooled down recently as teams have taken a different approach in pitching to him.

Slugging percentage has dropped

The first 4 months of the 2018 season, Jose feasted on fastballs. The majority of the pitches he saw were fastballs even when the pitcher was ahead in the count.

By August, pitchers began throwing more breaking balls and off speed pitches especially when they were ahead in the count.

The breaking ball/off speed pitch trend continued with higher frequency in September

2018 Movie List

2018 MOVIE LIST - 55 TOTAL

STAR WARS EPISODE 8
GIRL ON THE TRAIN
LADY BIRD
SPIDERMAN
12 STRONG
SILENCE
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
BLADE RUNNER 2049
FINDING DORY

THE POST
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
WIND RIVER
MAGIC MIKE XXL
THOR: RAGNaROK
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
A MONSTERS CALL
PHANTOM THREAD
DESPICABLE ME 3
DADDY'S HOME 2

CAMERAPERSON
MOLLY'S GAME
WONDER
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
LAST DAYS IN THE DESERT
I, TONYA
READY PLAYER ONE
THE DISASTER ARTIST
MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

PROFESSOR MARSTON-WONDER WOMEN
BLACK PANTHER
BRAD'S STATUS
LIFE
ATOMIC BLONDE
DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIME
GAME NIGHT
THE GIFT
WHITE BOY RICK
A STAR IS BORN

CREEPY
BLOCKERS
BLACKKKLANSMAN
MAJORIE PRIME
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
A BEAUTIFUL BOY
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 6
OCEANS 8
FIRST REFORMED
ROMA
VICE