So far no ice has developed on Lake Erie this winter through January 6, 2022.
The Great Lakes as a whole is void of significant ice.
There have been 12 winters (since 1972 when records began) where no Lake Erie ice was reported through January 5. Over those 12 winters, 6 ended up with at least 70% ice coverage for at least 3 weeks later in the winter!
Lake ice development is directly influenced by the duration of cold temperatures. The longer the temperatures stay cold, the faster and more expansive the ice coverage.
Last winter I did some research on the years where ice coverage increased rapidly and the temperature conditions that were present for this to happen.
For example, in 2019 the average temperatures over the period of Lake Erie ice coverage expansion (roughly a 2 week period) was WELL BELOW NORMAL across a large portion of the Great Lakes.
In similar years, the average amount of time of ice coverage expansion from 20% to 80% was roughly 2 weeks.
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| Temperatures vs normal: January 25 to February 23, 2021 The issue this winter as in a few recent winters is the Lake Erie water temperature. The average water temperatures as of January 5 is still around 40 degrees.  While there are local regions in the mid 30s (western basin) the water temperature overall is well above average. When we compare this winter to other winters (2020-21, 2015-16, 2011-12 and 2006-07) when the water temperature was around 40 degrees on January 1st, it usually takes a month for the water temps to drop low enough to promote significant ice development. How fast the current lake water temperature drops will be key this winter!  |
