Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Lake Erie Ice Cover: This Year vs 2012 vs 2011

Even with the cold snap which started late December through earlier this week, the amount of ice cover on Lake Erie is still very scant. How does this year's ice cover compare to last year and two years ago? Here are the charts from the Canadian Ice Service from this year back to 2011. Notice the ice free year last year compared to the almost frozen Lake Erie in 2011/

January 7, 2013
January 9, 2012
January 17, 2011

Monday, January 07, 2013

January Thaw Begins...When Will Winter Return?

So far,  a nice "January Thaw" pattern shaping up for this week. The typicaly signature is a ridge in the east with a trough in the west which drives above normal temperatures here in Ohio and surrounding areas with below normal temperatures out west.

First, what will this mean for us:

1. The snow cover will melt completely by the end of the week

2. The ground will become saturates so the rain system on Thursday/Friday could cause some high water in low lying areas

The high is deflecting many of the weather systems back into Canada. When a system makes it through the ridge, it produces rain not snow

Second question: When will the winter pattern flip back to winter?

Looking at the long range blend of several computer projections, there are strong indications that the trough out west will migrate back east by the end of the week.

Colder temperatures seem a good bet by the 20th.