Thursday, August 18, 2011

Hurricane Projections Getting Interesting

So far this year, hurricane season has been very quiet. A few storms developed in the central Atlantic. Those storms didn't last long.  But notice the storm track. The steering currents have curved each storm to the northeast.

The focus of attention in the weeks ahead will be over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. While no storm (as of this writing--August 18th) has developed yet, all of the computer projections show rapid development of one area of storms into a formidable hurricane late next week

We look at 3 distinct projections.  The GFS model, the Canadian model and the European Model.

The GFS (American) Model by next Saturday the 28th show a hurricane near Florida

The Canadian Model shows the same hurricane near the Carolina coast

The European Model shows it near Florida

Whether or not this actual verifies remains to be seen. The bottom line is that the computer are seeing the tropics becoming very active very soon and very fast. Based on a multitude of factors, I believe that the US will be hit with a hurricane at some point this season. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Players Aren't Seeing the Pitches They Used To

Have certain pitches become more common place in recent years?

Here are the number of players over the last 10 seasons who were pitched 60% fastballs or more. Other pitches and their percentages follow.

Notice that the number of players who saw 60% fastballs has seen a THREEFOLD DROP since 2006. Players who saw more than 15% of their pitches as sliders have steadily increased since 2004.  Curveball percentages saw a drop then an increase the last 3 seasons while changeup percentages have stayed fairly steady throughout.

While the number of players who hit more than 50% of batted balls as groundballs has stayed steady, the number of players who have swung at more than 25% of pitches out of the strikezone has risen 500%!

The bottom line: Pitching overall is getting better.  Batters are getting fooled more than they did just 5 years ago.