Friday, August 24, 2012

Isaac Update - Gulf Coast Landfall Looking Better and Better

This morning's Tropical Isaac update shows more consensus on the track of Isaac as it intensifies into a hurricane.

The satellite shows the areas of concentrated convection coming together as it moves into warmer waters.
The track as of mid morning Friday continues to show it moving over Cuba, Key West and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week
The wind swath painted by the National Hurricane Center shows tropical storm force winds over a large area.
 Rainfall will be tremendous across southern Florida and into southern Alabama and the panhandle of Florida. Look at the 8"+ ares from Key West northwest.

Hurricane Dennis back in 2005 took a similar track.

The water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are above normal in most areas so the potential for intensification is very high before it make landfall along the gulf coast. Check out the temperatures. The black line indicates the projected path of Isaac.
What about after it makes landfall? The long range track pulls the center of Isaac more east which would eliminate Ohio's chances of seeing tropical rainfall. More updates this weekend!

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Issac Moving Toward Florida/Gulf Coast

Hurricane season is all of a sudden upon us after a relatively quiet summer in the tropics. Now, Tropical Storm Issac is steady with further development to hurricane strength (if not already).

The satellite image (as of Thursday) doesn't show a defined eye. That should change later this week.

The hurricane track from the National Hurricane Center always included a white cone which shows the degree of uncertainty in the movement of the movement. The larger the cone, the greater the uncertainty. Here is a great graph on this "Cone of Uncertainty".
You can trace the beginnings of this storm back to the African country of Guinea when it was a weak tropical wave.

Now to the specifics. Most of the statistical and dynamical models bring Issac near Florida later this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center concurs.

Tropical wind speed swath paints a rough picture for Southern Florida.

Rainfall for southern Florida could be excessive!

How does Issac compare to other tropical systems that share similar speed, intensity, motion, location?

 Could Issac redevelop in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall along the Gulf Coast?  Yes!!!

Computer projections take the remains of Issac right up the east coast next week. This could bring heavy rainfall from Georgia to Virginia. More later this week!

Monday, August 20, 2012

Rainbow Photos After Morning Storms

Storms popped up this morning in this fall-like pattern. Fortunately, they faded away just as the sun was rising. The sun was at just the right angle through the showers west of Cleveland to produce some great rainbows. If you took a rainbow picture, email them to me ""!

Canal Fulton
FOX 8 Rainbow over Cleveland
Double Rainbow in Lakewood
Fairview Park
Hopkins Airport
Kamm's Corners
Lake Erie Crushers Stadium
Lorain Looking East
Rocky River
Storm from FOX 8 roof before it moved onshore west of Cleveland
West 130th