Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Eclipse Day Cloud Outlook - 12 Days Out

You've heard me say this countless times over the years. I really don't put a ton of trust in daily model data further out than 7 days. (Contrary to popular belief, 7 day forecasts are far more accurate than they were 15-20 years ago.)  They do give a nice overall picture of the pattern across a large region like the mid-west or Great Lakes. This provides information like "above normal rainfall or below normal temperatures" which are definitely usable. However, deriving a detailed hourly forecast this far out will always invite problems. Keep this in mind as we close in on Eclipse Day.

For what its worth, here is what the GFS model is showing from late Saturday April 6 through late afternoon Monday April 8th. This is middle altitude cloud cover percentage.

I wouldn't use this information to plan your eclipse viewing as we still have time before the hourly forecast details become better in focus.  If this verifies, cloud cover will be a problem

Another update on Friday.

Eclipse Path

Monday, March 25, 2024

Total Solar Eclipse Part I: What's The Weather Typically Like on April 8th?


As of this writing it's still a bit too early for a super detailed daily forecast for April 8 in northern Ohio. However it doesn't keep us from looking back at past April 8 weather history.

Here's the weather for April 8 over the last 20 years in northern Ohio:

The NWS office in Wilmington, Ohio has some nice past satellite images showing the wide variety of cloud cover regimes on April 8th.  Here is one comparing 2020 to 2021.

Historically, a cloud free day around the Great Lakes is not very high.

Image courtesy:  Brian Brettschneider, Climatologist

Here is a nice summary of April 8 weather for Cleveland:

Not that I put tons of (little if any actually) weight on deterministic model output but for semi-entertainment use, here is what the American model (GFS) is showing for Monday afternoon, April 8th. What is my confidence of this verifying?  Not high as of this writing. More to come.