Thursday, January 07, 2010

Baseball Hall of Fame - Next 5 Years

Andre Dawson was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame yesterday.

However, there are a list of players awaiting election over the next couple of years that might not get in once the list grows including sure-fire-first-ballot guys in 2013 through 2015.

The leftovers who almost garnered enough votes this year are:

Roberto Alomar, Lee Smith, Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Edgar
Martinez and Jack Morris

2011 marks Jeff Bagwell's first year of eligibility. If the writers are liberal with their votes--unlike their track record in recent years--Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven can make it.

2012 marks a year where there is no clear-cut first ballet players. Tim Raines and Lee Smith might have a shot then. Jack Morris, a good pitcher, doesn't have the stats in my opinion. If these players don't get in within a few years, they odds drop significantly.

Edgar Martinez is an interesting case due to his DH role throughout most of his career. Writers who see the DH as a bonefide position rather than a career extender will vote for him. I don't see it happening for a while.

2013 is the year that sees the eligibility list getting bunched up real fast. This also marks the first time that multiple players who were attached to performance enhancing drugs are on the list not named Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. The list of first-time eligible players include:

Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds.

Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza are in on the first try.

Sosa, Bonds and Clemens don't get least not now. Too much incomplete information on their involvement. Curt Schilling is an interesting case. Post-season play can't be argued...regular season stats are border-line.

2014 will see Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux list on the ballet. All first-ballet inducties.

Assuming that they retire in 2010, Ken Griffey, Omar Vizquel, Randy Johnson and Gary Shefffield are on the list. Everyone except Gary Sheffield are first-ballet hall of famers. Sheffield's link to PEDs will keep him out for a while.

2016 potentials are Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Ivan Rodriguez. Count on Rivera and Rodriguez as first-ballet inducties. Trevor Hoffman a distant second.

Sometime between 2015 and 2020, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones will be eligible.
Around 2020, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez will be on the list.