EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) teleconnection last Friday showed two dips into negative territory. One around the 7-9th and another less confident dip at mid-month. The first dip coincides with the SOI composites from above.
Today (5 days later) the EURO and GFS ensembles have backed off on the second dip (mid-month). The EURO is more bullish on a colder pattern than the GFS.
The EURO ensembles from last Friday (February 29th) showing the pressure pattern through March 14th. Cold colors represent low pressure. Warmer colors represent higher pressure. Lines indicate west-to-east winds aloft between March 10 and 14th...This represent fast moving storm systems. See the SOI composites above.
Also Remember the "???" on Figure A above? The SOI is now showing a sharp 32 point drop
Looking at the SOI composites (17-20 days out from the starting point of Feb 27-29 which puts us at roughly March 17-20th) the answer gets even more murky. The composites couldn't be more opposite. One shows a strong SE ridge/active central storm systems. The other shows the SE ridge more suppressed with a more active panhandle storm track.
REMEMBER THIS BIG SOI DROP. THIS BARES WATCHING. STAY TUNED!
The northern Pacific pattern has been progressive. No sustainable ridging over the Bering Sea or over Alaska. Fast flow aloft is keeping LOWS barreling east from out of central Asia, over the Pacific and into western North America.
Based on all of this we can conclude the following for the first 3 weeks of March:
* Temperatures should stay near/slightly above normal
* More days in the 50s overall
* Rapid west-to-east flow will keep storm systems moving frequently across the central US
* Small periods of colder air still possible. Light snow is not off the table.
* Watching the period of March 17-20th