Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Will Opening Day 2020 at Progressive Field be "COOLER THAN NORMAL"?

If you recall from my blog a few weeks ago when I dove deep into why the winter pattern was abnormally warm, one of the drivers was the lack of ridging over Alaska.

Early January Pressure Pattern
Now, the models are strongly showing a monster ridge late this week/weekend.

Recall what happened back in November when the ridge was locked in. Plenty of cold across the eastern US.

The ridge looks incredibly strong for this time of year.

Based on the strength of this huge Alaska ridge and comparing this to the top 5 years similar (hat tip: Brian Brettschneider) the surface temperature departures for +2 days later through +14 days later look colder than normal the last full week of March for the Ohio Valley and northern states! (March 16 thru 28th).
The EPO is strongly negative

The MJO is also heading into a cooler phase.

The MJO isn't as strong as what it was earlier in the winter so IMO this won't be as much of a driver if it stays weak.

CIPS analog (based on the GFS) is still warm east between March 21 and 24. This should start to correct COLDER east in the days ahead.

Good possibility that temperatures could be COOLER THAN NORMAL for Opening Day here in Cleveland. Normal high for March 26 is 51°. We could end up with mid/upper 40s more days than not that week!