Thursday, May 01, 2014

Detailed Summer Outlook: How Many 90 Degree Days/70 Degree Days?

Last week, I wrote about how we derive our summer outlooks by analyzing ocean sea surface temperature patterns (El Nino, etc), pressure patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic among some others. The elements just mentioned are matched up with other years of occurrence. A best possible fit is created. Remember that specific day-to-day weather is never the objective.  Its impossible to determine the weather for specific days months out contrary to what the Farmers' Almanac says.

So what were CLEVELAND summers like in years that match up similar to 2014?  90 degree days, overall rainfall, days with below normal temperatures? Here is a quick graphic...

Monday, April 28, 2014

Severe Weather Update; Frequent Rains for Ohio Valley

James Bryant, Associated Press
The fatality free start to the tornado season ended yesterday (Sunday, April 27th) when an 11 month old baby was killed following a roof collapse. This was the longest stretch without a tornado fatality since 1915!  We can thank a colder than normal winter with a jet stream that kept unstable air away from the US. Add to that the high resolution radar grid across the country which gives us much better lead time when tornadic weather strikes.

Here in northern Ohio, severe weather threat will be small but the rainfall totals will be significant through late Wednesday.

Severe weather will develop today across northern Mississippi, Alabama and central Tennessee. Moderate risk across the deep south.

Current radar images for Central Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama.