Thursday, October 06, 2011

Why Science Needs To Be On Social Networks

...because most people are there...and it GROWING!

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Will Cleveland Break the All-Time Record for Yearly Rainfall in October?

After the past week we had with low, hanging cloud cover with intermittent rain, its easy to answer a resounding YES! But the pattern has done an about-face highlighted by a fall "Omega Block" over the central US. When lows stall and get cutoff, the result is the week that we had last week. When the Omega Block sits overhead, we bask in long periods of sunshine and super-dry air as we have now
So far, this year ranks 4th all-time.

1. 53.83 inches - 1990

2. 53.51 inches - 1878

3. 50.38 inches - 1950

4. 49.97 inches - 2011

5. 48.53 inches - 1992

Rainfall since July 4th even in the 95 degree heat was well above normal
For those of you who like graphs, the rainfall numbers each month are well above the norms

So back to the original question. Will we break the record this month?  The long range projections squeeze out the Omega Block slowly.  First, rainfall Monday of next week.  Still dry here in Northern Ohio

Thursday the 13th, the southern moisture and the cold front out west eliminates the Blocking Pattern almost entirely
Blocking patterns don't last long late October/early November.  Rain will return late next week but not enough to break the record. We'll have to wait for another system by month's end or early November. By then, we won't care about rain as much as the start of the lake effect snow countdown. I can't wait!

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Tuesday, October 04, 2011

After more than 5 days with rain and a thick low, hanging overcast, its nice to see the sun. October typically sees 52% sunshine overall so we have some ground to make up.

In fact, this stretch of dry days will be long lasting. The 8 day shows roughly 8 days of sunshine with above normal temps. Does this happen very often?  The data shows it happens more than we think; 4 times since 1990!

Here is our 8day stretch starting today:   65, 70, 73, 75, 78, 78, 75, 71

10 DAYS:  10/3 to 10/12 in 2004 - 64, 59, 57, 68, 75, 75, 70, 61, 61, 60

8 DAYS:    10/5 to 10/12 in 2002 - 68, 71, 65, 60, 66, 68, 69, 63

8 DAYS:   10/10 to 10/17 in 1998 - 60, 65, 73, 64, 56, 58, 70, 77

8 DAYS:   10/10 to 10/17 in 1994 -  55, 62, 69, 64, 67, 68, 70, 75

So if you are heading to Szalay's in Peninsula to pick out some pumpkins and try the corn maze or walk along the Cuyahoga River on the bike path, the temps and sun will be perfect.  Also, head out to Mapleside Farms. The hayrides are fantastic!

What does the early winter have in store?  Here is a hint:  The pattern is looking eerily like the winters of the early 1950s. More on this later this month....Here we go!
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