Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The Last Push of Winter Ahead

Its been a rough winter for Northeastern Ohio.  Almost 60 days with highs below freezing. More than 80 days with snow on the ground. How about an end?

Well not quite.  The overall pattern of colder air pushing south hasn't really let up.  With the exception of a few brief respites of 50 and 60 degree days over the last few weeks, the winter has been consistantly cold.

Last April was one of the warmest on record.

Now the details on what we are expecting for the rest of this month and April:

This winter has featured a strong La Nina.  This means that the Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to South America have been well below normal.

This shifts the jet stream over North America so that it drives cold fronts in from Canada.

This continued into early March.  Now that La Nina is finally weakening, the jet stream is backing off. This has allowed for warmer than normal air to push north into Ohio over the last few weeks.

Now, the long range outlook is for the La Nina pattern to reestablish itself one more time. Look at the temperature trend compared to normal for the first few days of April.  Its still trending a bit below normal.

The long range model still show temps staying well below normal through the 29th...

Heading into early April, the temps will probably not venture much above normal which is nearing 50 by Apri 1st.  Expecta continued cool and wet spring.