Heavy Rain/Storms Continue Today: Day #16 and Counting

Towering Cumulus over Lake Erie: Photo by Scott Sabol

Did the thunder wake you up last night/early this morning? We still have MORE rain and storms today then a HUGE break tomorrow and this weekend. The forecast today goes like this: Morning storms move out over the next several hours...a nice break as the temps climb into the high 80s with hazy sun late morning/midday. The area circled on the left side of the map below shows where the redevelopment will occur later this morning along the sweeping cold front.

That redevelopment will make it into Ohio this afternoon/early evening. Some of these storms will reach severe limits (winds of at least 58 mph and/or 3/4" hail) Areas especially in Richland/Ashland Counties that have already received 5"+ of rain over the last 2 days will have high water problems made worse by this afternoon noon's rainfall.

Here are the impressive rainfall numbers: 

July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport.

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900.  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!

* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966

Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE NEVER GONE MORE THAN 7 DAY STRAIGHT WITH RAINFALL!

Just how rainy has it been since this stretch started?  Here are the rain totals over the last 5 years over the same days. These are the official numbers at Hopkins. Some areas have received DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS!

More later...

Consecutive Rain Streak Continues...

"When will it end?!"

The collective question of all residents of northern Ohio is resonating loudly.  The answer is very soon. 

"This rain must be some sort of record", you ask.

The answer is we've had unsettled, rainy patterns in mid summer like this before. 2009 was one such summer. Temps were "cooler"...rainfall was plentiful. The recency effect (the cognitive bias which weighs current events with more importance than past events) is at work here.  Our perceptions of weather extremes are a prime example of this.

While above normal rainfall has occurred in the past, its the "frequency of the rain" this summer that sits at the front of our memory. Here are the bullet points:

* July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport. 

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900. (Yes, I looked at over ten thousand days of data--10,488 days...whew).  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!

* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966

Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE HAD LESS THAN 7 DAY STRETCHES WITH RAINFALL!





The streak should end at 16 days when the first cold front in several weeks changes the pattern into the weekend.

Cabrera and Davis Leading The Way

Courtesy: ESPN

I distinctly remember looking at Miguel Cabrera's stats a few years ago after 6+ years in the big leagues and speculated:  IF he kept up his pace through his prime years and into his early 30s, his overall numbers would look real Hall of Fame-like.  Here we are 3 years later. His numbers haven't wavered. The pace he's on is historic and he's getting better at the age of 30! All of this happening a decade AFTER the long ball era  faded into the baseball traditionalist world for further debate.

Courtesy: MLB.si

Not to be overlooked is Chris Davis's season:  0.320 average, leading MLB in slugging with 33 homers, 85 RBI a week before the All-Star break. Statistical speculation for Davis is tough considering his sporadic playing time before last season since 2008. Prior to last season, he played in 100 games only one time. His 2012 season was impressive with 33 homers, 85 RBI.  So impressive are his numbers this season, only 7 players have had MORE homers before the All-Star break.

Both Cabrera and Davis are entering into downright historic single season statistical territory. Here are the HOME RUN and RBI lists through the All-Star Break. Both Cabrera and Davis are climbing high.

The list of 30+ homer season BEFORE the All-Star Break is impressive

Most RBIs before the All Star Break: