Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Does a WARM August mean a WARM Fall?

August ranked as the 6th all-time warmest.  Surprisingly, July wasn't ranked in the top ten yet June was the 9th warmest on record. Consistant warmth is probably the best way to describe this summer's temperature pattern.

Does a warm August mean a warm fall?  Let's look at the Septembers and Octobers following these hot months.
Remember what we're doing is purely statistical so obviously we are missing some big meteorological components to the analysis like EL NINO but its fun nonetheless.

Let's first list the top 5 warmest Augusts on record including this year and the number of record highs tied or broken in the right column.

1. 77.8  1995       84
2. 77.8  1947       71
3. 76.1  1959       47
4. 76.1  1953      149
5. 75.0  1938        7
6. 74.9  2010       25

Pictured below are the temperatures relative to average for each September following these war Augusts.  All of these years suggest near to above normal temperatures in September in these years.  Again, we are not taking into account any meteorological/climatological variations like El Nino/La Nina, etc.

Now, let's look at October in the same years.

Notice the consistancy from year to year.  Aside form 1947, Octobers seem to stay near normal.

Recently, the weather patterns have done a complete "180" allowing cooler air to settle into northern Ohio for the first time since late last spring.  September 7th of this year marked our 19th day at 90 degrees or better.  The following day, temperatures at 7AM were in the upper 50s!

We might finally be seeing an end to the summer heat.  So far, the forecast keeps the temperatures somewhat near average this week and into next week which would go against the September trend outline here.

Coming up next week, we will recap Hurricane Ike's effect on northern Ohio.