Friday, October 01, 2010

Cleveland Summer 2010 vs 2009 vs 2008.....

Across the state of Ohio, this summer ranks 4th all-time warmest since record keeping began in the late 1800s.  Nationally, this summer was also 4th all-time.  It wasn't too long ago--last summer in fact--that summer temperatures were cooler than any summer in recent memory.  Let's compare this summer's ranks nationally to 2009 and 2008.

 This summer was very warm across the eastern half of the country while the west was cooler.  Last summer, more than 65% was much below averages.  2008, although not super-cool by any stretch, was near average to slightly below average.  Here are the ranks of the summers between 2008 and 2002 in Ohio:

2008:  50th warmest
2007:  26th warmest
2006:  41th warmest
2005:    5th warmest
2004:  98th warmest (13th coldest)
2003:  78th warmest (31st coldest)
2002:    4th warmest

What does this mean?  Are the temperatures across the state trending warmer in recent years or cooler?

Here is a graph of Ohio temperatures from 1951 to 2006.  it shows a negligible increase in overall temperatures.

Keep in mind that this is not a snapshot of what is happening globally.  My previous post illustrates the global increase which also note the discrepancy in the data.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Global Temperatures: Who is Right?

I've always said that I'm never a fan of politics.  I give each side of every argument a fair shake regardless of my personal opinions of beliefs. Its my open-mindedness to other information and data that has allowed me to change my opinion on many issues based on newly acquired knowledge.  Politics--as with every hot-button issue--clouds the landscape.

In climate science, the data is the foundation of the field.  This analysis focuses on the two datasets that is often sited and dissected as to what is more valid and reliable.  One represents the ground temperatures.  The other represents the atmospheric temperatures measured from satellites.

The first set is from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).  This dataset goes back more than 100 years of record keeping.  The second originates from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.  Satellites like the AMSU have been measuring the atmosphere since 1979.

The first graph is from GISS.  NASA and NOAA use this dataset in determining long term trends commonly sited.  The data is from 1880 to the present.  I noted the satellite era on the right with two solid red vertical lines.

The second graph is from the UAH website showing the satellite data since 1979.  I added the average temperature rise in red.  All data is available on the web for verification.

The question doesn't come from whether global temperatures have warmed or cooler since 1979 (warming has occurred) but to what degree.  One dataset shows between 0.7 and 0.9 degree celsius increase.  The other shows a 0.4 degree celsius increase.

Furthermore, can the increase be described best using naturally occurring cycles or does the increase in Carbon Dioxide have the most effect?

So what dataset is right?