Friday, September 07, 2018

History of Tropical System near northern Ohio

Only 11 tropical systems (mainly depressions and extra-tropical storms) have passed within 100 miles of Cleveland. The only systems that were still Tropical Storms were Hugo in 1989 and Candy 1969.

If we expand our search a total of 36 tropical systems have passed within 200 miles of Cleveland. One Hurricane (1896), 7 Tropical Storms (more recent: Hugo 1989) 12 Tropical Depressions (recent: Nate 2017) and 16 Extra Tropical Systems (recent: Sandy 2012 & Nate 2017).

Friday, July 13, 2018

Cody Allen 2018 vs 2017

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
Cody Allen, closer for the Cleveland Indians is the bookend of the worst bullpen in baseball this year. He's only blown one save through the All-Star break but his last outing in a non save situation--2/3 inning, 6 runs, 3 hits, 2 walks--had me wondering if this performance is an indication of something more substantial brewing over time.  Some basic pitching numbers along with Statcast data can shed light on this.

*  Opponents are batting more than 200 points HIGHER against Allen with runners in scoring position than last year.

                GAMES   PLATE APPEARANCES   OPP AVG.       2B   HR   RBI
2017:            69                    50                              0.226             1      2     16
2018:            32                    44                              0.432             3      1     14

*  Allen's has already walked 15 batters in 32 games. Last year his total was 21 with double the number of games pitched.

            RESULTS WITH COUNTS 3-0, 3-1, 3-2
                 GAMES         HITS/AB           BB   SO   RBI   HR   R
2017:             69            8-32  (0.250)     21    12     6       4      6
2018:             32            4-18  (0.222)     15     4      2       1      2   (THRU JULY 11)

*  Allen's velocity has steadily dropped from its peak in 2013 to its present level similar to last season

*  Batters are swinging at more of his pitches in the strike zone vs any other year since 2012.  Batters are more aggressive vs Allen.

* Yet opponents are also swinging and missing significantly more this season

* Batters are not swinging and missing at pitches up in the zone as much as last year

However he is still throwing pitches in roughly the same locations regardless of the batter

The result has been more fly balls this season than in any other season

Expected slugging percentage (formulated using exit velocity and launch angle from statcast) shows an increase from last year.

The increase in flyballs and expected slugging percentage is probably due to pitch location. His primary pitches (fourseam fastball and curveball) are higher in the zone this year vs 2017.

He has made adjustments to right handed batters this year and its showed. The real damage has been done on the other side of the plate where lefties are enjoying a large increase in OPS.  4 homeruns so far thru July 11th versus only 1 last year. 15 hits in roughly half the number of at bats.

Why is this happening?  He's leaving the ball over the plate more this year to lefties.
                              AB    H     HR   RBI   AVG      OPS
2017  LEFTIES    110   23      1        7     0.209     0.545

                              AB    H     HR   RBI   AVG      OPS
2018  LEFTIES     59    15      4      10     0.254     0.871 (THRU JULY 11)

The frequency of balls GROOVED (right over the plate) is higher with both his fourseam fastball and curveball. The increase is more pronounced with the fourseam. 

This has resulted in more flyballs.  Batters are pulling the ball more.  The number of weak hits is lower; the number of solid hits is the highest in three years!

The bottom line is Cody Allen is less effective when he doesn't locate his two pitches. This is essential now versus other years due to his decline in velocity. He needs to make adjustments DOWN in the zone especially to left handed hitter or the second half of the season will be more of the same

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Heat Index Levels: Last 10 Years (Cleveland, Ohio) and Others

This weekend will feature our first days with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s this year. Some have surmised that our weather has been more humid than in recent years.  Here are plots showing the number of hours the heat index reached at least 80 degrees. BLUE denotes current year. RED is the average for each period.

Drought year of 1988:  36 days above 90 degrees

Thursday, January 25, 2018

40th Anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978

When you ask people about historical winter weather across northern Ohio, The Blizzard of 1978 is at the top of the list. Here is a news clip from WJW FOX 8 from that evening, January 26, 1978. 

The Ohio Turnpike was completely shut down.  The only time in its history!

What most people don't remember is that we had more than 20" of snow on the ground BEFORE the 25/26th BLIZZARD. 

*  We had TWO big storms earlier in the month. 

*  The first blizzard hit on the 8th and 9th.  9" of snow fell between the 8th and the 9th. Wind gusts were near 50 mph

*  We had a 10 day break then 12" of additional snow fell between the 19th and the 21st (storm number two) just five days BEFORE the Great Blizzard.

*  Only 8" of snow fell in Cleveland, 5" in Akron, 14" in Mansfield. 

The National Weather Service defines a blizzard NOT WITH SNOWFALL but with sustained winds of at least 35+ mph for at least 3 straight hours with 1/4 mi visibility or lower. Again, heavy snow storms are not necessarily blizzards

What caused the problems wasn't the new snow but the near hurricane force winds which gusted above 60 mph for almost a day (80+ mph gusts reported in many areas. 100+ mph near Lake Erie). These winds blew the snow already on the ground from the previous snows creating the 20+ snow drifts across the state.

In fact, the snow from the Great Blizzard was nowhere near the top 50 snowiest 2 day storms on record. 

For historical perspective, 18 of the top 50 snowiest 2 day periods since 1940 occurred between 2000 and 2009.  

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Snowfall Forecast Communication: We Need to do Better

I've written variations of this post many times over the last 5 or so years and it bears repeating. I rarely post snowfall maps/computer model projections further out than 2-3 days on social media platforms. Why?  Look at these long range computer model projections starting Monday--4 days prior--for the snow event Friday and Saturday, January 12 and 13th.

Sunday Evening 1/7 (Model #1. I forgot to save Model #2 for comparison)

Monday Morning 1/8 (Model #1 vs #2)

Monday Evening 1/8 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Tuesday Evening 1/9 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Wednesday Evening 1/10 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Look at the HUGE difference between each model.

Many people posted these images online and even showed them on the air. In most instances these were shown to convey the fact that we had a long way to go before an official forecast could be made with a high degree of certainty. Uncertainty was being conveyed. It has the best of intentions. I get it. I've done it. Makes sense, right?

Except in the real world, most humans rarely interpret this type of information--data--through a rational filter. Data makes us feel conflicted. We, whether we like it or not, overly simplify complex ideas. Computer model projections are a prime example. That's how we're wired. It's well documented with behavioral scientists.

We look at the numbers, pick one out--say 20" of snowfall--react impulsively to it without historical perspective (by the way that's never happened in 24 hours from a general snow event since record keeping began) or context and before you know it, hysteria ensues. We see it on social media every time. Unfortunately social media reactions spread at an exponential rate devolving as the comment thread lengthens. Before you know it, the benign, educational intent of the snowfall uncertainty post is lost. It involuntarily morphs into a totally different story that spreads like wildfire changing with every re tweet and re post. The old game where you sit in a circle an say a sentence to the person to your right and that person to their right applies here. When the message comes back around to the beginning, it's changed entirely. Do you see the problem?

All of us meteorologists here at WJW FOX 8 always choose to wait until we have a high degree of certainty before we post any snowfall numbers usually in some sort of range. The aim is to eliminate what I just described in the paragraph above. This was my post Thursday morning, roughly 36 hours before the event begins. (Note: Andre Bernier, our evening meteorologist had a more basic snowfall map the night before not shown here)

How do we combat our hard wired human nature? The answer is simple:  We don't. WE QUALITY CONTROL OUR INFORMATION!

Psychology plays a huge role in weather forecasts. As a meteorologist who reaches hundreds of thousands of people each morning on the top rated morning show in Cleveland, Ohio, I owe it to each viewer to quality control what I say and what I create visually to accompany it. The psychological element--how the viewer perceives what we say--is a critical weather cast element that is often overlooked by on air meteorologists. The words/numbers that we say/post on the air and online can be more powerful than the weather itself.  In this age of posts solely created for clicks with the hopes of a long, viral lifespan, quality is too often sacrificed. That's fine for a cute picture or a clever, humorous meme but when a major weather event is eminent over a large population area, high quality information created for the masses is of the utmost importance.

Recently the National Weather Service has implemented a program in the works for several years that streamlines their winter season watches, advisories and warnings in an effort to simplify the forecast message for the general public. The great folks at the NWS Office in Cleveland recently hosted a seminar for media personnel highlighting these changes. The information was invaluable.

As meteorologist we always need to remember the psychology behind what we do. As communicators of science (data) need to put ourselves in the minds of the public and ask: "How is the viewer going to interpret what I say?" So when I create a snowfall forecast range map, I take into account how people react to EACH WORD knowing that many will perceive these range to fit their location.

We must remember:

*  Public perception is very powerful

*  We need to be better communicators of information

*  Choice of words is of the utmost importance in conveying severity of the weather

*  Mass media is for the masses. Risk is personal to the public. Yet people want personal forecasts. Huge conundrum.

* Human beings dislike uncertainty.

*  Too much emphasis on uncertainty breeds confusion, inaction and ultimately apathy when the next snow or weather event of importance happens.  Basic psychology here.  We need to find a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and sticking to a forecast geared to the general public without causing social media unrest