Weather predictions
have an ingrained psychological component. The weather conditions might say one
thing, Yet we will characterize the weather differently depending on who we are
and where we live. Just looking outside at the current weather in our corner of
the world in Northeastern Ohio can shape our way of thinking even if the
overall weather data says otherwise. This winter’s lack of cold, small snow falls
and "milder” stretches are a prime
example of how psychology plays a role in how we perceive the weather. First,
let’s set the stage meteorologically then we'll examine the psych.
This early winter
weather has been stuck in a fall pattern. A ridge of milder air has sat stagnant
over the eastern US. The persistent low over the southwest and a general trough
with colder air over the western US and Canada hasn’t budged. The persistent southwestlow has spawned many Texas panhandle/southern systems rich with moisture fromthe gulf of Mexico; a pattern that is not indicative of a typical December or
January. The tropical La Nina pattern (cooler Pacific Ocean sea surface
temperatures) and an historically strong arctic pattern over the last several
winter say Canadian clipper systems would dominate the early winter with
frequent 2-4 inch snows. Unfortunately,
that same arctic component—our cold air driver--has stayed conspicuously stable
and quiet.
One computer projection
since late November has relentlessly pointed at clippers developing in Canada.
A quick snow usually accompanies these clippers across northeast Ohio followed
by colder air. This year, once we get inside 48 hours of the forecasted clipper
event, the computer projection would quickly push the system back north
allowing milder conditions to prevail!
Crazy stuff to be sure. In this atypical pattern where computer
projections offer little consistent help in forecasting, we more than ever want
a forecast that's definitive. This winter
has been anything but definitive.
At the heart of these
computer projections are equations that have no exact solutions, just
increasingly better approximations. I tell high school students to imagine math
without numbers and no calculators. That description usually follows with a
look of horror. Any thoughts of a student in the room becoming a mathematics
major are immediately wisped out the window.
Yet weather
forecasting is just that: An approximation. Throw in a splash of day-to-day
randomness and you have a very tough recipe to replicate over increasingly long
time periods. Computers will get faster
and faster. The amount of weather data from satellites will increase. But the equations that are used in these
simulations will always yield approximations…ALWAYS! No one wants to hear this
but all simulations are highly detailed shades of "grey" of varying
degrees. So are the weather forecasts that we present on television each day.
In a Facebook post,
I've explained the "approximate" nature of weather forecasts in the
context of this early winter wackiness. I hope that most people are receptive
to them. Many are judging by people’s comments.
Yet in times like this where weather isn't matching the Decembers and Januaries
of the past (snow and cold), the human condition takes over. Our mind gets
thrown off. Our preconceived notion of Decembers and Januaries featuring snow
and cold have been replaced with rain and milder air. These changes don't sit
well. It makes us feel uneasy holding onto these conflicting ideas. Psychologists call this "Cognitive
Dissonance". How many times recently have you had a conversation with
someone and they said, “What is the deal with this 'mild' winter…what is going
on here?” The uneasiness in the question is palpable.
No one likes to feel
uncertain or conflicted. Weather most
times exists in a perpetual "grey" area. It’s this built in randomness
that causes frustration and conflict. Most of the time, we grossly
underestimate its significance. We all have a built in motivation to reduce
conflicting ideas by altering the existing conditions in our mind to create
consistency. In the case of understanding the weather, we do this by 1) either
believing the weather information which best fits our comfort level or 2) we
alter its importance in our mind or 3) we just plain criticize it. Sometimes,
it’s a blend of all three. This inclination to favor information that
reinforces our comfort level is called a "Confirmation Bias". The
problem is that by creating "consistency" through favoring
information , we create a new false interpretation of the weather which we
believe to be true. Rather than looking objectively at the reasons for the
change scientifically (science scares people), most people tend to use an
overly simplified and often inaccurate scientific explanation of the weather to
ultimately confirm their predispositions.
For example, I go on
the air and say we’ll see rain to wet snow with 1-3 inches of snow by midnight.
Many of us are already preconditioned to believe that this snow forecast will
either be too much or too little. The reasons can vary from a disbelief in
meteorologists in general--some have the "they never get it right!"
mentality—to believing “the mild weather will stay” or that "the big snow
is coming!" Regardless, the
preconception of inaccuracy is set from the get-go.
The rain slowly
changes over to snow but only for some areas. It takes a few hours of rain/wet
snow before finally going to all snow. The new weather conditions highlighting
a slower, back and forth transition to rain and snow present new information
that favors the preconception of inaccuracy already present in many peoples' minds.
I go on the air and explain that there is no well-defined line where rain goes
to snow. I explain that it takes a while for cold air to overwhelm the milder
air so the rain/wet snow mix would exist for a longer period of time.
Those who are
preconditioned to believe that the forecast would be inaccurate dismiss the
scientific explanation, ignore the random changes and replace them with their
own simplified, non-scientific explanation while criticizing the real
explanation from the meteorologist as hogwash. The countless emails and phone
calls are strong evidence. All of this stacks the deck confirming their bias
that weather forecasts and meteorologists are always wrong. For a meteorologist, you can't win even if
you present objective information to the contrary.
The psychology
happens involuntarily: We struggle with the randomness of the changing weather
conditions. We feel conflicted. We feel
frustrated. We dismiss the weather
information that we deem unnecessary to ease our conflict. We might blame Lake Erie. We often say "Its Cleveland." We
criticize. We simplify. We use “weather
myths” to explain weather events. We come to a new conclusion and now believe
we fully grasp the nature of the weather. The false interpretation we just created
we believe to be very accurate. We feel
much better about ourselves. Case closed.
This inconsistency
doesn't mesh well with every one's already highly simplified view of the
weather. A crazy, changeable 8day forecast, negative connotations of weather
forecasts and forecasters in general, coupled with a lack of general understanding
is a highly volatile psychological mixture which further drives more false
conclusions and irrational beliefs about the weather. All of which makes people
even more uncomfortable and irritable. The
vicious circle is hard to break.
Weather prediction is
just as much art and psychology as it is science. We try to tailor the 8day
forecast to match the viewers’ perceptions by smoothing out some of the
randomness so that it fits nicely on the 8day but it doesn’t always work out.
Let’s hope that the weather pattern returns to "normal" soon. As a television meteorologist, the forecasts
daily would become easier to handle. As
a television viewer, the forecast could become easier to digest perhaps
quelling some of our cognitive discomfort.
I realize that
shifting the weather back to “normal” won't change perceptions. It won't change
the human condition. It probably won't alter beliefs about weather forecasts,
meteorologists and weather patterns as much as I wish it would. I can guarantee this: Cold weather in early February will make most
of us feel more at ease about the winter. That is until the first snow over
spring break!
