Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Yes, Big El Nino Brewing But Not All El Ninos Are Alike: 2015 vs 1997

You have probably heard about the BIG EL NINO or SUPER EL NINO or some phrase like that. If not then you will soon enough. Eventually EL NINO will trend on social media by the end of September. You heard it here first.

But hold on. Doesn't Big El Nino mean mild winter?  Not necessarily. See the differences between the last BIG El Nino in July 1997 and July 2015.  Also, notice the differences in the North Atlantic ocean temperatures? This is why the winter 2015-16 outlook is not an "El Nino shoo-in". Not all El Ninos are alike. (See my post on the different El Ninos and what they mean for our weather)

When will we know enough to make an educated assessment on the upcoming winter?  Probably by the end of September. Stay tuned...