Friday, August 09, 2013

Tornado Confirmed in Orrville, Ohio

The National Weather Service confirmed that the damage from severe storms Wednesday afternoon in Orrville, Ohio WAS from a tornado. Estimated maximum wind speed: 95 mph; Maximum path width: 50 yards; path length: 1 mile.

There is a misconception that tornado wind speeds are estimated from doppler radar or some other direct measurement. Wind speeds are "reverse engineered" by surveying damage. The estimated wind speed is the--and this is key--AN ESTIMATED THREE-SECOND GUST AT THE POINT OF DAMAGE.

The type of structure/tree is assigned one of the 28 Indicators that describe the type of structure. DEGREES OF DAMAGE (scale of 1 to 9) are assigned to each indicator. After the assessment for all indicators is complete, the estimated three second wind speed is determined. A more detailed EF Powerpoint is provided by the National Weather Service.

Thursday, August 08, 2013

Tornado in Orrville...More Storms Today?

A viewer sent this photo of the funnel cloud (more than likely a tornado) in Orrville yesterday afternoon around 3PM. More on this from the NWS later today.


Will we see redevelopment later today? Yes. However, the conditions are not favorable for severe weather. The front is on our doorstep as of 8AM Thursday.
The front will stall focusing the storms across the southern portions of northern Ohio later today.

Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Severe Storms Possible Later Today

We're already seeing development in southern Michigan. In fact, this cluster started to develop in Wisconsin at 1AM where it moved west over Lake Michigan, weakened a bit and is not fanning out to the west. CLICK HERE FOR THE NEWEST RADAR LOOP

The dew points are climbing; precipitable water levels will be much higher...
Convective Energy is highest in western Ohio later today and this evening
 Severe thunderstorm watch possible later today in this area
The HRRR model still shows spotty storms developing ahead of the Michigan cluster by midday.....
Here is the HRRR projection for this afternoon and early evening showing more widespread storm coverage.