Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Will We See 500 Homers Again? Updated Leaderboards

Opening Day 2013 is in the books. The dawn of the newest crop of young talent like Bryce Harper, Buster Posey and Mike Trout is showing signs of dominating the majors in the years to come.  Players like Miguel Cabrera who is in his 11th season began his MLB career in 2003! Chew on that for a minute. Let's put it another way: The number of players who were active as games resumed after 9/11 that are still active in 2013 is probably very small. The new generation of talent is here.

Last summer, knowing that the youth movement was in full swing, I looked up and down the active leader boards to see if any milestones were in reach by some of the veteran players who might not have many years left. Too my astonishment, milestones wouldn't be reached as frequently as what we saw in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Check out the link to my original post HERE. Basically, I "cleaned" up the leader boards so as to reflect an active leader board list more true to future trends. My list back in August had some pretty big assumptions such as retirements, part-time players and, in retrospect, some grossly optimistic bounce-backs of a few players. Back in 2008, I created a similar list with again, some REALLY optimistic projections for a few players that seem follish now. How things have changed since then!

What do these leader boards look like now? The first number is the actual stat (as of April 3rd), the second is the player's first year, the third is their position on the all-time list. The leader boards all of a sudden look a whole lot different!  I didn't list players who were not on a Major League roster on opening day. I also didn't list part-time playeers like Jason Giambi. Aside from Jeter and A-Rod, not many players are close to the top.


Alex Rodriguez    647    1994    5th
Albert Pujols       475     2001    29st
Paul Konerko      422    1997    46th
David Ortiz          401    1997    50th
Adam Dunn         406    2001    49th
Alfonso Soriano   372    1999    71th
Lance Berkman   360    1999    75th
Todd Helton        354    1997    82nd
Adrian Beltre       346    1998    88th
Aramis Ramirez   342    1998     89th


Alex Rodriguez  1898     1994      10th
Derek Jeter        1868     1995      13th
Todd Helton       1360     1997      98th
Albert Pujols      1376     2001      94st
Carlos Beltran    1267     1998    136nd
Ichiro Suzuki      1204     2001    169th
Jimmy Rollins     1182     2000    190th
David Ortiz         1124     1998    226th
Paul Konerko     1106      1997    240th
Adrian Beltre      1089      1998    250th


Derek Jeter        3304    1995    11th
Alex Rodriguez   2901    1994    37st
Ichiro Suzuki      2607    2001    76th
Todd Helton       2422     1997    113th
Albert Pujols      2246    2001    162th
Michael Young   2230     2000    167th
Adrian Beltre      2227    1998    168th
Paul Konerko     2183    1997    184th
Juan Pierre        2142     2000    211th
Carlos Beltran    2065    1998     237th


Todd Helton        570    1997    22nd
Derek Jeter         524    1995    40th
Alex Rodriguez    512    1994    48th
Albert Pujols       505    2001    53th
David Ortiz          482    1997    75th
Adrian Beltre       452    1998    86th
Alfonso Soriano   434   1999    124th
Aramis Ramirez   425   1998    137th
Jimmy Rollins      421    2000   143rd
Carlos Beltran     416     1998   147th


Derek Jeter          2585    1995    40th
Alex Rodriguez    2524    1994    50th
Paul Konerko      2143     1997   162nd
Todd Helton         2125    1997    166th
Adrain Beltre        2117    1998    173rd
Torii Hunter          1948     1997   267th
Raul Ibanez          1912    1996    286th
Carlos Beltran      1921    1998    284th
Ichiro Suzuki        1912    2001    290th
Juan Pierre          1882    2000     311th


Juan Pierre        591    2000    19th
Ichiro Suzuki     452    2001    51th
Carl Crawford   432    2002    57th
Jose Reyes        410    2003    65th
Jimmy Rollins    403    2000    72th
Derek Jeter       348    1995    112th
Alez Rodruguez 318    1994    145th
Rafael Furcal     314    2000    152nd
Carlos Beltran   306    1998    155th
Michael Bourne 276   2006     184th


Andy Pettitte          245    1995    52th
Roy Halladay         199    1998    112th
Tim Hudson           197    1999    118th
CC Sabathia          191    2001    139th
Derek Lowe          175   1997     171st
Mark Buehrle        174    2000    172th
Barry Zito              154    2000    237th
Chris Carpenter     144    1997    266th
Johan Santana        139    2000    295th
A.J. Burnett           137    1999    304th

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Moral Intuition and Social Media

If you've read my posts on Scott's World of Weather, you've probably seen my posts on psychology and how it related to how we perceive the weather. In that vein, I just read a great article on how we react to situations. The premise of the article is: WE REACT TO SITUATIONS AT WORK, AT HOME, ON THE STREET, ETC WITH OUR MORAL INTUITION FIRST AHEAD OF OUR CONSCIOUS MORAL REASONING. The author uses the term 'Social Intuitionism".

The article stems from a book by Jonathan Haidt, a moral psychologist who theorizes that our moral intuition reacts before any moral reasoning takes place. This might seem like common sense. Yet he surmises that our moral reactions are more "similar to sensations of taste". He identifies 6 of these "moral taste receptors": HARM, FAIRNESS, LIBERTY, AUTHORITY, LOYALTY and SANCTITY. His book describes how these societal traits evolved from basic behaviors like "protecting our children, forming coalitions, forming hierarchies, etc" just to name a few. Its theorized that these moral intuitions evolved from the primal behaviors which our human ancestors needed for basic survival.

I couldn't help but think about how our Social Networking behavior online often follows the same pattern.  Take Facebook comments for example. How many times have you posted some innocuous message on Facebook or Twitter where the comments are driven by the aforementioned "moral intuition"?  People seem to let their moral intuition guide their comments before their moral reasoning/rational side can have a say. Perhaps its a derivative of our ancestral survival instinct. The difference is Social Media is not a "life or death" activity. Yet many of us treat as such.

How often do we see people comment with their emotions first? Quiet a bit.

How often do we see people evoke some preconceived notion in a comment instead of rationalizing their viewpoint? Quiet a bit.

Conversely, how often do we see people let their rational side guide their comments before their emotion or--as the author of the book states--moral intuition impulsively takes over? Not much.

Let's stretch out the author's findings over a larger component of the social sciences. Politicians feed on our "moral intuition" by talking about issues in such a way as to cater to a specific demographics propensity for quick judgments Whether a person is left leaning or right leaning, the idea of a moral intuition--quick judgments before cognitive reasoning--applies.

Why does this matter? The more we have an understanding of how our consciousness works, the better our interactions with other in high pressure environments.

Some thoughts as I head out to Progressive Field where I will no doubt pull a hammy.

Education & Unemployment: Two Charts Tells The Story

While the price of a college education has continued to rise, its importance has risen along with it. These charts tell us that someone with a college degree is more apt to be employed at this stage of the recession recovery than someone with only a high school diploma. Annual earnings of a college graduate is also much higher. Bottom line: Go to college and get a degree!!!!!