Friday, November 05, 2021

Will This Warmth Give Way To More Cold By Thanksgiving Week?

The pattern is looking more favorable for cold as the east coast trough becomes deeper and much wider.  Here is the GFS model showing the trough developing then reloading by the 20th of November.

Northern Pacific pattern is very progressive.  Lows sliding out of eastern Asia, across the dateline, the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska before they dive into the northern US. 

I hesitate showing a snowfall map like this but it tells the GENERAL story:  Bursts of cold.  Fast moving systems.  Warmer than normal Great Lakes.  All of this points to a good possibility for snow at some point the week of November 15-20...maybe deeper into the month.  How much actually sticks is the big question. 

Historically one day 3 inch snows occur mostly between 23 and 33 degrees

Historical November snowfall