Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Still sticking to my "7 days above 90" prediction

Many people have come up to me and said, "So. What happened to that forecast of '7 days at 90 or better this summer' you predicted"?

My answer, "The summer is still young."  And yes, I'm still sticking to my initial prediction. Cooler air is coming...

So far as of June 8th, we've had 3 days at 90 or better.  Alot of this heat is due to two main factors:  Decreased soil moisture which reduces the amount of evaporation (which is a cooling process) and high pressure aloft which steers warmth north.

Look at the flow last month (May)

Now compared it to the last two weeks. Ridging aloft with steering winds out of the south
Now the soil moisture in indicates high soil moisture
Now for June through the 5th:  Notice the reds are replaced with yellow shades indicating drying across the eastern 1/2 of the US.
The combination of all of the extended forecasts in this next animation shows no significant "southerly flow" like the second map on the page. It illustrates a west to east flow with periods slight warmth with NO BIG HOT PERIODS at least through the 22nd of June.  This also means more quick-moving fronts with better chances of rain/storms.  If it doesn't animate, click on THIS LINK

Even NEW extended models which take into account the interaction between the ocean cycles and general atmospheric conditions around the earth show a "cooler than normal" pattern for July and August. Normal high in July is 82.  So this would predict  a better chance at upper 70s versus upper 80s.