Thursday, November 13, 2014

First Lake Effect Snow Event Underway

We knew this was coming:  LAKE EFFECT SNOW 

I90 and I271  (click image for update image)

Last week, I mentioned a lake effect event similar to this one on November 17, 2005. The 850mB temperature during that event was -12. Lake Erie water temp: 52 degrees. Winds were westerly then west-north-westerly. That event dropped 9+" in Lake/Ashtabula/northern Geauga Counties. 

Today, 850mB temperatures will fall to between -10 and -13.  Lake Erie water temperature just fell to 51 degrees. Winds are westerly with an expected shift to the northwest tonight/Friday. Below are the Bufkit numbers for today at noon and today at 10pm.  The rectangles areas from west to east are:  850mB temperatures, relative humidity and wind direction. The Bufkit numbers support the drop in 850 mB temperature, increase in low level moisture and a veering wind to the WNW later this evening.

The amounts by Saturday morning will be close to the November 2005 event mentioned above. 


Remember that during snow events (big or small) we are not able to mention every town and municipality's snow forecast. The best way to do this is to check our snowfall map and estimate based on the snow contours. We usually mention the larger cities so that people can use that information in their estimating based on where they live.

Here is the snowfall forecast from early Thursday morning through Friday morning. THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  Total accumulations will reach 8-10" in classic snowbelt areas by Saturday morning.

The first snowfall of the season try the patience of everyone. I've written extensively about the frustration people have about the weather, weather forecasts and extreme weather events here on my weather blog. I try to take the psychology of the weather into account when I formulate the initial snowfall forecast and subsequent updates. As much as we try to please everyone all of the time as broadcast meteorologists, it rarely works out. Remember that our approach has always been not to exaggerate the weather. We call it like it is. We don't sugar coat it. It might be hard to take especially this time of year when the first snow is around the corner. We highlight the overall pattern, present general forecast ideas then give you the specific numbers/amounts the closer we get to the day of the event. Please share this with others here and on Facebook. Remember our weather approach when the next snow falls this winter.