While I was skeptical on biting to quick on this solution late last week, I quickly made adjustments Monday to reflect the huge changes for next week for two reasons:
1) The recurving typhoon. Typhoon Neoguri began a trek northwest then recurved toward Japan. When Typhoons recurve like this, it is a reflection of the overall hemispheric pattern which if followed "downstream" over North America typically means a major cool down across the eastern half of the US. This idea is called "The Typhoon Rule".
2) Model performance: I didn't bite on the cool down was simply the models kept showing the trough/cool pocket over the east flattening which was suggesting a warming trend back into the mid 80s. A quick look at the model performance showed that they were having a tough time beyond 5 days probably due to the erratic behavior of the developing El Nino and the atmosphere's response to it. (Note the up and down SOI numbers--South Oscillation Index).
However, the models started to trend "not-so-warm"again (I like that wording versus "cool" since 70-75 degrees isn't really cool) where they have stayed all week.
Aside from Monday, get ready for a week that is about 8-10 degrees below average. Very comfortable but probably not pool weather.
