Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The Next 5+ Years of MLB Hall of Fame Voting

Under the most basic of circumstances, predicting hall of fame voting of any sort is a futile exercise.  Yet the upcoming 5 years or so of MLB Hall of Fame voting will feature players that played in an era that was anything but "basic" or "normal" when compared to the historical mean.

This crop of retired players who are or soon will be eligible for Hall of Fame consideration played between the early 1990s and mid to late 2000s.  This era is so heavily associated with performance enhancing drugs that some want the statistics for these 10 to 15 years to be either rubber-stamped with asterisks or completely eradicated from all historical record.  Ultra traditionalists go so as far as branding this era as immoral and unethical.  "Purge the inflated numbers like the contagion they are!", some cry.  Anyway, you get the point that this is still fresh in people's minds 7-plus years after mandatory drug testing was implemented.

Which brings me back to the Hall of Fame. Starting next year, more and more players will be on the ballot from the 1990s era.  So here is what I think the voting will look like from 2012 to 2017.  There is nothing scientific about my methodology although I tried to take into account the typical voter's "passionate" viewpoint on the players in question. The only prerequisite is that I started with the Top 10 vote getters in 2011 as the starting list in 2012.  Here is what I came up with along with a few carry-overs from year to year.

You'll notice that I don't have Schilling or Pedro Martinez voted in.  Not because they are not deserving but because they're are other players who I believe will be voted before them.


Barry Larkin    3rd    62.1%    YES
Jack Morris    13th    53.5%    YES

Lee Smith    10th    45.3%    NO
Jeff Bagwell        2nd    41.7%    NO
Tim Raines    5th    37.5%    NO
E. Martinez    3rd    32.9%    NO
Trammell    11th    24.3%    NO
Walker        2nd    20.3%    NO
McGwire    6th    19.8%    NO
Mcgriff        3rd    17.9%    NO


Legitimate hold-overs from 2012 who have a good shot:

Bagwell        YES
Lee Smith    NO

Bonds        NO
Clemens    NO
Piazza        Maybe
Sosa        NO
Schilling        Maybe
Biggio        YES


Legitamate hold-overs from 2013

Schilling    NO
Piazza        Maybe

Maddux        YES
Thomas        YES
Glavine        YES


Legitamate hold-over from 2014

Piazza        Maybe

R. Johnson    YES
P. Martinez     NO
Smoltz        YES
Sheffield        NO


Legitamate hold-over from 2015


Ken Griffey, Jr    YES
Billy Wagner     NO
Trevor Hoffman    YES


M. Ramirez    NO

(assumming they retire at the end of 2011)

Vizquel        YES
Thome        YES