Under the most basic of circumstances, predicting hall of fame voting of any sort is a futile exercise. Yet the upcoming 5 years or so of MLB Hall of Fame voting will feature players that played in an era that was anything but "basic" or "normal" when compared to the historical mean.
This crop of retired players who are or soon will be eligible for Hall of Fame consideration played between the early 1990s and mid to late 2000s. This era is so heavily associated with performance enhancing drugs that some want the statistics for these 10 to 15 years to be either rubber-stamped with asterisks or completely eradicated from all historical record. Ultra traditionalists go so as far as branding this era as immoral and unethical. "Purge the inflated numbers like the contagion they are!", some cry. Anyway, you get the point that this is still fresh in people's minds 7-plus years after mandatory drug testing was implemented.
Which brings me back to the Hall of Fame. Starting next year, more and more players will be on the ballot from the 1990s era. So here is what I think the voting will look like from 2012 to 2017. There is nothing scientific about my methodology although I tried to take into account the typical voter's "passionate" viewpoint on the players in question. The only prerequisite is that I started with the Top 10 vote getters in 2011 as the starting list in 2012. Here is what I came up with along with a few carry-overs from year to year.
You'll notice that I don't have Schilling or Pedro Martinez voted in. Not because they are not deserving but because they're are other players who I believe will be voted before them.
2012
Barry Larkin 3rd 62.1% YES
Jack Morris 13th 53.5% YES
Lee Smith 10th 45.3% NO
Jeff Bagwell 2nd 41.7% NO
Tim Raines 5th 37.5% NO
E. Martinez 3rd 32.9% NO
Trammell 11th 24.3% NO
Walker 2nd 20.3% NO
McGwire 6th 19.8% NO
Mcgriff 3rd 17.9% NO
2013
Legitimate hold-overs from 2012 who have a good shot:
Bagwell YES
Lee Smith NO
Bonds NO
Clemens NO
Piazza Maybe
Sosa NO
Schilling Maybe
Biggio YES
2014
Legitamate hold-overs from 2013
Schilling NO
Piazza Maybe
Maddux YES
Thomas YES
Glavine YES
2015
Legitamate hold-over from 2014
Piazza Maybe
R. Johnson YES
P. Martinez NO
Smoltz YES
Sheffield NO
2016
Legitamate hold-over from 2015
Piazza
Ken Griffey, Jr YES
Billy Wagner NO
Trevor Hoffman YES
2017
M. Ramirez NO
(assumming they retire at the end of 2011)
Vizquel YES
Thome YES
