Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Hurricane Season and Global Lightning

l Nino is weakening fast in the central Pacific.  As the sea surface temperatures slowly drop into the Summer, the trade winds will relax enough to allow tropical systems to develop much easier than last year.  Neutral conditions will stay steady through Hurricane Season.  Expect this season to be very active.


Back in 2005, Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita ballooned into monster storms in the Gulf of Mexico due to increased water temperatures driven by a current of warm water that travels between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is called The Loop Current.


If a tropical storm develops over this current, it can build and strengthen extremely fast. The loop current could play a pivotal role in hurricane development this season in the gulf and subsequent landfalls.

A snapshot of the Global Lightning over the last 5 days shows activity along the equator heating up.  Notice the widespread lightning over the US during the recent severe weather outbreak last weekend.

 

Monday, April 26, 2010

Has 2010 Featured More Tornadoes Than Recent Years?

...After an event like the one this past weekend, its easy to say "yes" definitely.

In reality, the short answer is NO.  Not even close.

Here are the tornado numbers through the end of April since 2000:

2000:   309
2001:   206
2002:   168
2003:   221
2004:   186
2005:   236
2006:   460
2007:   410
2008:   549
2009:   383
2010:   153

2010 has been the least active tornado season in at least 10 years.  The tornado trend map below really tells the story.  The "79" at the bottom is this year's tornado number before this weekend's event.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Tornado Outbreak Kills on Saturday

The largest tornado outbreak this season developed late Friday into Saturday across the south killing 10 in Mississippi.  17 Counties are under a state of emergency in Mississippi as the cleanup begins.  The initial reports estimate the tornado to be one mile wide.



Below is the most recent storm report from the Storm Prediction Center.


 The Storm Prediction Center posted their severe weather outlook which marks the first time this season with a HIGH PROBABILITY of severe weather, something that happens a few times a year.


At its peak, the middle of the country was covered in tornado watches.


The rainfall amounts were extensive.


Tornado watches extended into southern Ohio late Saturday evening.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday

The first major severe weather outbreak occurred Saturday.  As of 10:45PM EDT, more than 49 tornadoes were reported since midnight.


Tornado watches are still in effect as of 11PM EDT

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Happy 45th Birthday Moore's Law


If you follow computer technology then you have probably heard of Moore's Law. Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel Corportation came up with his famous law back in 1965 sighting the rapid increase of circuits on a single chips. THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE IS HERE


An article on wired.com pointed out that Moore's Law is often misunderstood. The article goes to say that the paper "referred to the number of transistors that could be cost-effectively produced on a single integrated circuit, and he somewhat optimistically predicted that this number would double every year."


The full article is here:  http://www.wired.com/thisdayintech/2010/04/0419moores-law-published/#ixzz0lj2nMhEC

Some highlights of the original paper published in 1965 are:

1.  That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost
will be 65,000

2.  Computer processing power would double every two years.

3.  The cost of computing is cut in half every two years.  In other words.  As the circuitry gets more complicated, the cost drops.

According to a press release from Intel back in September 2009, the new 22 nanometer chips contain the smallest SRAM cell used in working circuits ever reported at .092 square microns. You can fit 10,000 of these cells per millimeter.  Find your ruler, located the small hash marks on the metric side.  Now imagine 10,000 cells between each hash mark.

Eventually, the physical limits of microchips will be realized.  As Mr. Moore said in this article a few years ago:

"Moore reiterated, however, that there really are fundamental limits to his law, regardless of materials. Indeed, while he admitted to being “perpetually amazed” at how technologists have been pushing those limits out ahead of us, Moore said the end times are near. So when can you expect the law that has driven you to replace your computer every 2-3 years to be obsolete? You’ve got ten-to-15 years..."  Wired.com

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Icelandic Volcano Continued

Measuring the particulates in the atmosphere from the Icelandic Volcano was critical in determining when and for how long air traffic was to be grounded.  A good friend of mine who is a pilot was flying one of the last flights out of Europe before they grounded air travel.

Astronomer Snaevarr Gudmundsson took this photo along with hundreds of others as the eruption was occuring.

He shared his incredible experience with Universe Today: 

“I stayed near the volcano from about 16:00 hours to 22:00 hours on Saturday and watched its impressive eruption,” Gudmundsson said in an email to me. “Amazing event, awesome explosions of 1200 C hot magma reaching ice and water. I shot more than 550 images during these hours of continuous enjoyment. Sounds ridiculous but its ever changing appearance was never boring.”


Yet another fantastic lightning image within the ash plume. 

This image is from a ground-based LIDAR (Light detection and ranging) using a 532 nanometer cross polarization NFOV (Narrow field of view) telescope.  The ash cloud is the brighter pocket of red and dark orange which sinks over time.


According to the SIRTA website out of France (research site for atmospheric detection--loose translation), the instrument is "capable of retrieving the optical and microphysical caracteristics of clouds and aerosols particles in the boudary layer and the troposphere (between 0.1 km and 15 km). Two wavelengths are emitted by the laser: 532 nm and 1.064 µm ; the detection system is capable of measuring the signal at 532 nm with the same polarization than the emitted beam."  In other words, instead of using conventional radar, which sends a microwave signal, this uses a laser.

A great simulation from the Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne showing the ash plume descending over Europe since last Wednesday.





Monday, April 19, 2010

The Icelandic Volcanic Eruption



Icelandic Volcano Photo.   Courtesy:  Snaevarr Gudmundsson

A large volcanic eruption on iceland from a volcano named "Eyjafjallaajokull" has shutdown airtraffic to an extent not seen since 9/11.  The particulates in the ashcloud have been known to shutdown jet engines.  As a precautionary measure, more than 60,000 flights have been grounded since the eruption.

While the science both volcanic and atmospheric is newsworthy, the pronounciation of the volcano's name is stealing headlines due to its phoenetic complexity and journalists' butchering of it.

NPR's website has a great writeup on how to pronounce it.   Trust me, it won't help too much but its worth a listen.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/04/iceland_volcano_eyjafjallajoku.html

...or this youtube audio clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqXc8i8CvNs

Here is a great satellite animation showing the ash plume.

 

The Norwegian Institute for Air Research shows the computer model ash plume dispersal forecast into Tuesday, April 20th.  You can see why given the aerial coverage of the ash why air traffic was so greatly affected.

 
Yet another snapshot of the ash plume moving across the Norwegian Sea


In 24 hours, the ash cloud moved southeastward into continental Europe.


A great FAQ section of the Icelandic Meteorology Office on volcanoes.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1880

Also, a list of volcanic eruptions in Iceland since 1900

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1874






Friday, April 16, 2010

Recent article on the 1918 EL NINO in AMS Bulletin



I usually don't get to issues of the AMS Bulletin until I am knee deep in back issues.  So this morning, I flipped through February's issue and came across an excellent paper on the El Nino of 1918 and its relation to the influenza pandemic and other climate patterns that existed at that time.


Climate teleconnections before 1950 are very difficult to quantify due to the lack of data from that era.  Buoy arrays didn't exist.  Ground based temperature records are not as reliable as you go back to the start of the 20th century.  This paper aims to trace back the record through reanalysis of existing data.

The paper is not long nor is super-technical or filled with equations.


1918 EL NINO PAPER HERE

Thursday, April 15, 2010

US Statewide Temperature Ranks

The first 15 days of April have been uncharacteristically warm across the eastern 2/3rds of the US.  Here are the US temperatures compared to average for the first week of April.

 

A quick look at US statewide temperature rank starting in September of 2009









Was this March historically warm?  March of 2007 featured widespread warmth



The average temperatures from December 2009 through February 2010


 Remember the COLD summer of 2009?


Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Freakonomics Podcast: "Faking It"

As a supplement to the newest Freakonomics book called "Super Freakonomics", the Freakonomics Podcast on the New York Times website features updated elements from both Freakonomics books and their brand of economic theory applied to brand new societal subjects you've experienced but probably not thought much about.

The newest episode titled "Faking It" focuses on faking it in social situations, politically and religiously.



Its worth a listen.

Download from iTunes HERE


Or directly from the Freakonomics site.