Hurricane Sandy Update #1 of 3- Impacts on North Carolina Coast

Since Hurricane Sandy has impacts that will be felt as far west as Northern Ohio, I'll post updates in three parts so that we can spend time showing the varying elements of this HISTORIC storm. But for right now, I want to show the impacts this weekend along the Carolina coastline.

Notice the amount of area this storm covers. Google Earth satellite photo illustrates this well.

The tropical storm wind probabilities, although very small, extend from eastern Ohio to southern Florida north to Maine!

Most of the computer models keep Sandy well off shore until next week, the impact will be initially felt along the North Carolina coast. Stormsurf.com has some excellent graphics showing the wave heights and wind direction for some high impact areas. Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks late Friday evening shows no big changes

Watch the wind heights JUMP Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon in the next TWO MAPS....Storm surf heights of 15 to 20 feet are not out of the question!

Storm surf heights rise very fast according to this graph derived from the graphics above.

HUGE Warmup...Late October Atlantic Hurricane...Potential Storm Next Week

Once again, I don't want to overshadow this nice warmup we are enjoying but the potential for major storm development early next week is too meteorologically interesting to ignore. Temperature will climb nicely today through Thursday. If we are lucky, a few backyards could touch 80 by Thursday!

Now to next week.
Three different elements are factored into the pattern next week.

1. Unseasonably warm air
2. Strong Cold Front
3. Late Season Tropical Storm (Hurricane) near the east coast

The interesting element is the late season Tropical Storm named Sandy in the Caribbean. Late season tropical systems DO occur from time to time. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was a significant hurricane which made landfall in mid October along the coast of North Carolina and moved north into central Pennsylvania.

We are approaching Halloween so the tropical storm/Hurricane chances greatly diminish. Even less are the chances of a tropical system making landfall along the east coast of the US.

Using NOAA's Historical Hurricane Plotter, I created a map of the tropical systems that developed from October 22nd through early November in the Caribbean that made landfall along the east coast.  I found ONLY THREE SUCH STORMS. All of these storms occurred 1800s. 

So Sandy would be a rarity given its super-late season development and its potential impact area.

Here is the plot of the many computer projections using Google Earth. The red circles are showing selected cities like Cleveland, New York, Boston, Cape Hatteras and Hilton Head.

The European solution is still very aggressive in keeping Sandy along the east coast Sunday through Tuesday merging it with the cold front coming from the west. Lots of energy coming out of the west which--according to this projection--would pull it WEST. Here is Sunday and Monday back to back.

Now check out Tuesday.....




The model takes Sandy, merges it with the front and pulls it as far as western New York and blows it up into this monster! This would mean 50+ winds for Northeastern Ohio with rain (maybe wet snow).

While I am skeptical of this result, the model's consistancy can't be ignored.  We still have a week to go. Let's see what happens...

Big Storm Next Week? No Storm...What To Believe?

The Meteorology subculture inside the global Twitter world is buzzing with the prospects of a major east coast wind/snowstorm sometime early next week before Halloween. As with all long range computer model simulations, some have a better handle on the atmospheric dynamics this time of year than others. Rather than bore you with the specifics of each computer model, I'd rather show you what a few of the projections are saying about late this weekend/early next week:

One note first. I really like warm weather versus cold weather any day of the week, any time of year. So my excitement over the upcoming scenarios for early next week is not to quickly passover the nice warmup this week. Temperature will be in the 70s from Monday through Thursday. The meteorologist grim reaper I am not. The meteorological realist I am. (Was any of that grammatically correct?)

Let's set the stage with the three components that will be intertwined into this potential system:

1) Warm air building in the east
2) Cold air pushing southeast behind the cold front
and 3) The late season tropical system soon-to-be called "Sandy" in the Caribbean.

Lots of map ahead so find OHIO and work east. I show these maps to illustrate the point that computer projections this far out usually have differing results. Also, understanding how these computer models tick make you a better meteorologist in the long run and a more informed viewer of weather





The clash between the warm air ahead and the cold air behind will be the trigger for some thunderstorms across Ohio this weekend. Notice the energy developing late Thursday followed by the cold air behind.

The clash between these components is very apparent on this map that I created for the morning show. 

The big question is what component becomes the dominating feature this weekend?

Using Google Earth, soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sandy is projected to stay out to sea. The lines shows the different projections.

The National Hurricane Center shows that most of the October tropical storms take this general track.

What to these computer projections say specifically? The EUROPEAN model shows this MONSTER STORM off the east coast with strong winds late Monday with a push west into Ohio and PA on Tuesday.

 The CANADIAN model shows some development late Saturday night off of the coast.

The NAVY MODEL show development further out at sea.

The AMERICAN MODEL shows hardly any development early next week.

I can guarantee you one thing: ITS GETTING COLDER NEXT WEEK!

More updates on my FACEBOOK FANPAGE as the week continues.

Warmer Trend Next Week. Remember Last Year? Mild December Ahead?

Using the various teleconnections as a guide for future weather pattern can be a crap shoot considering all of the random processes that occur in the atmosphere. Now consider that we are into late October--a transition month--which by itself offers a bunch of other forecasting obstacles. Forecasts can be very tricky to say the least.

I frequently post some of these workups on my Facebook Fanpage as single images.

Taking all of this into account, let's look back to last year at this time to see how the pattern was evolving in late October and November. Remember that last winter was one of the mildest EVER in northeastern Ohio.

By late October, the upper level pattern showed typical autumnal characteristics. Strong ridging and strong troughs which equated to rain and milder periods followed by cooler periods.

By early November, the trough in the east was starting to break down allowing for longer periods of milder air.

By Thanksgiving, the high pressure ridge responsible for the milder winter was almost in place.

Throughout December, the ridge south of Alaska and the ridge in the east prevented cooler outbreaks.

So temperatures across NE Ohio and eastern US were well above normal.

Notice how late October is shaping up. The projections are establishing a ridge in the east with a warmer than normal trend all next week.

Will this translate to a milder than normal pattern similar to last year? I am somewhat skeptical for two reasons: 1) Last year we were in a La Nina. This winter will be a weak El Nino at best. 2) The water temperatures in northern Atlantic close to the Canadian shoreline are VERY warm. This seems to be displacing the Greenland high so as to make the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) more favorable for colder air outbreaks.

While next week will be a nice break from our frequent rains and cooler/windier pattern recently, I don't think this Indian Summer next week will last into early winter.

Tricky System This Weekend; Lots To Cover

In my opinion, warm fronts are one the most tricky parts of a storm system to predict. The computer models in many instances have a difficult time nailing down the timing and the position of the rain associated with it. A few days ago when the different models were showing warm frontal development at multiple levels, I paused.

I've been burned before. Will this warm front lift north taking the moisture with it or will it hesitate and stall temporarily causing some rain along the turnpike corridor?  Complicating matters are that this is going down over a weekend in mid October when most people will be enjoying fall activities as the leaves are reaching peak. The other factors show a trailing cold front which will push winds to near criteria levels Sunday with temperatures in the 70s with some scattered storms....during the Browns game! One can argue that an act of God is the only thing that can help the Browns but I digress.

The surface map today (Friday October 12th) show the beginnings of the weekend system in the south.

Dew points (available moisture) climbs Saturday and Sunday.

One projection takes the rain over the extreme 1/4 of Northeastern Ohio tomorrow afternoon. I'm not liking this!

Yet the amount of rain shown on the forecast map from the HPC doesn't reflect this. Now you know why warm fronts are tough.

The winds plotted on this chart through Sunday shows the increase in EVERY model outlook. With winds like this, it seems more plausible that the winds will help push the front further north keeping the bulk of the rain away from northeastern Ohio. I circled Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The bottom line is that the forecast details for Saturday will be changing on the fly. I wouldn't cancel outdoor activities but I would stay tuned for updates in the morning. Let's not forget about Sunday...showers and gusty winds for the Browns game for sure!!!

Is October Weather An Accurate Gauge For Winter?

We love to look ahead.  We are addicted to predicting all elements of our future. Where will you be in 3 years, 5 years?  New job in your future?  How about kids? Enough money to retire?  Whether we like it or not, we do subconscious prognostications all of the time. It makes us feel like we have control.

How about the talking heads on television and the web who claim to have a crystal ball into what the economy will look like 3 months, 6, 9 months or a year? They are a dime a dozen.  "Expert" analysts and internet pollsters write ad nauseum about their data, complex homemade algorithms and other techniques in predicting the next President. Once again, we doubt their validity, we doubt their methods yet we love hearing what the future may hold.  For me, its a bit of a rush. This rush is one of the reasons why I've loved meteorology since I was a kid.


No time of year does a look into our weather future feel better than in October. Those thoughts of snow so abruptly pushed into the dark recesses of our mind last winter beginning their mental resurface. The first cold snap hits and what happens? We immediately ask ourselves TWO QUESTIONS?

When is the first snow?  and How cold and snowy will this winter be?

...To which I answer silently to myself: "I haven't a clue".


Yet we NEED AN ANSWER to satisfy our insatiable need to know the future. An answer gives us the subconscious control that we crave.  So I try to give everyone my best "shot in the dark" given the patterns that we see currently.  Do October patterns indicate the winter ahead? Is the October pattern the crystal ball that we all believe it to be?

I plotted the temperatures for each OCTOBER since 1997 next to the DECEMBER/JANUARY of winter that followed:  Here are the plots in order. Yellow/Orange colors indicate above normal temps. Blue shades are temps cooler than normal.

Looking strictly at Northeastern Ohio, here are the results:

6 of the 15 Octobers above were BELOW NORMAL.  

Of those 6, only 2 of those December/Januaries that followed were BELOW NORMAL too. 

6 of the 15 Octobers were ABOVE NORMAL. 

Of those 6, only 4 of those December/Januaries that followed were ABOVE NORMAL.

The bottom line is that there are no statistical patterns to predicting the winter by looking at October. 

I know its not the answer you hoped for but its the truth. Maybe we need to stick to the Woollybear or Onion Peels or.............