How Will January's Weather Play Out?

We've already have a few decent snow events this winter.  The first was on December 1st.  The second was Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the snowiest Christmas Eve/Day since 1995. The National Weather Service here in Cleveland has a great summary HERE .

Now that we are a few days into January 2021, what does the current pattern tell us?

If you remember back on December 8th on my post, I mentioned the possibility of a GREENLAND BLOCK (red color) which would increase the possibility of cold and snow to finish out December.

MODEL animation from December 8 showing potential Greenland Block

It was too early at that point to say for certain that the mid-late December pattern would be a harbinger of what was to come in January. Now look at the animation below. See how the block (red color) near Greenland is staying in place.  Also see how the western North America ridge (red colors) is starting to develop. This is a bigtime one-two punch: Ridge west (potential block) and a ridge (Greenland block) east.

The jet stream is trending MUCH stronger. Look at the warmer colors across the eastern US. East coast snow lovers will love this!

Top years with similar pattern shows below normal temperatures the 3rd week of January

So after watching the pattern over the last month becoming more persistent, as of this writing (January 4) all this seems to be foreshadowing more cold and deeper southern storm systems!

Some projections are starting to show this idea.

First 2 weeks of January snowfall

3rd week of January snowfall projection

What about the Polar Vortex? Are there indications this become more unstable in the weeks ahead?  Absolutely. 

Look at the surface map over Asia and the large surface high pressure. 

Meteorologist Mike Adcock noted this on Twitter on December 28th:  "Looking at 2100 UTC obs in Mongolia, Tosontsengel is reporting 1089.5 hPa. This station is the record-holder from 2001 (1084.8 hPa). Further, Tsetsen Uul (labelled w/ H) is reporting 1093.5 hPa (32.29"). These, along with other reports, if verified, would break the world record."

This Siberian high pressure ridge is very large. Its been locked in since last month.

Climate specialist Rick Thoman also noticed the abnormally low pressure near the dateline on December 30th: "The GFS is all in for the deepest cyclone in a long time in or near Alaska waters. I've listed the four storms since 1975 that I know of with an analyzed minimum pressure below 930hPa".

The jet stream has been extremely strong off of Asia east into the northern Pacific which probably enhanced the storm above around New Years Eve. Notice the up and down jet across North America.

What does this have to do with the Polar Vortex and the potential for cold for the eastern US?

The super-high pressure center over Mongolia if located just right creates friction along the Mongolian Mountains. This process creates atmospheric waves that propagate into the stratosphere! The mountains change the pathway so that these waves can significantly weaken the stratospheric jet stream. This can cause warming events at the top of the atmosphere called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. When these occur, its just a matter of time before the "top-of-atmosphere warming" creates a weakening of the jet stream closer to the surface in the northern latitudes along with expansion of cold around the north pole. A weaker polar jet stream means the Polar Vortex can move south easier. 

See how the temperatures have jumped recently in the stratosphere

Also notice how the wind direction made a big directional change

Here is great tutorial on how this all fits together.

It doesn't happen overnight.  Its usually weeks down the road.  

See how the cold reloads across western Canada and then drains into the central US by the 20th?

Expect our chances for MORE wetter snows second half of January!

Christmas Snow is Coming...How Much and Where?

Warm Christmas 1982

It's not every year that we receive snow or have snow on the ground on Christmas Day. The chances historically are around 40% which isn't great. 

Back on December 8th in my post HERE I went into detail on the many forecast elements. Most were showing an active storm track with period of milder air. There was ONE we were watching closely as a driver toward a COLDER and snowy solution:  The GREENLAND BLOCK!

Here is the pattern showing the Greenland Block back on December 11th.  See the warmer colors near Greenland and the North Atlantic? 

Along with the Greenland Block, the trough in the western US was promoting the development of a potent storm system. Watch the blue colors across the west...

Here is the Tuesday December 23rd frame from December 8th...

As of this writing, the radar (Monday morning) is now showing that storm system. It's currently off the west coast.

What type of temperatures are we looking at before and after the front goes through? Wednesday will be "mild"

Christmas Eve morning temperatures will be in the 40s.  Watch how FAST the temperatures drop.

The question isn't whether lake effect snow will develop, the question is WHERE and HOW MUCH Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day.

General snow will develop Christmas Eve impacting much of the state of Ohio after morning rain.

Now the Lake Effect:

The 850 mB temperatures (5000 feet) will be around -18C.

Lake Erie temperatures are in the lower 40s.  For comparison, the water is a bit warmer than at this point in 2019.  No ice on the lake anywhere.

All except ONE lake effect parameter is checked:  Wind Direction

A shift from a westerly wind to a more WNW or NW wind can make a HUGE different in snow movement, amounts and locations.

Preliminarily this is what a west wind lake effect snow event could potential look like. A band paralleling the shoreline with a sharp cutoff in snow amounts north to south.

National Weather Service Bufkit is showing a brief period of EXTREME instability Christmas during the day.

It is way too early to post specific snowfall forecast numbers. But given the conditions as we see them now (Monday morning) I think they'll be snow amounts in the Lake County, northern Geauga and Ashtabula snowbelt areas that could exceed 20"+ from late Christmas Eve through Christmas day!

How Does the Cleveland Indians Payroll Compare To MLB Average?

These numbers are not adjusted to inflation. They are base numbers compiled from Cots Contracts and www.thebaseballcube.com via retrosheet.org. All graphs show data from 1995 through 2020. Attendance numbers are through 2019 due to Covid-19 pandemic. 2020 payroll data is adjusted for the shortened 60 game season.

First overall Cleveland Indians payroll vs MLB yearly average since 1995

Numbers inflation adjusted to 2020 dollars...

Cleveland Indians yearly payroll ranks since 1995.

Cleveland Indians yearly attendance rank since 1995.

Indians WINS vs YEAR to YEAR attendance change. Changes in attendance don't seem to be connect with team success.

All MLB team payrolls vs team average attendance over five years (2015-2019). R-squared is 0.525

Where do the Cleveland Indians fit on this scatterplot? See white dots on graphic below.

This would suggest that is a fairly significant correlation between attendance and team payroll.

If we subtract the top and bottom 10 teams each year, we get this relationship below. The correlation seems to be a better, tighter fit.

Next we correlate MLB team payroll vs winning percentage. The correlation is less significant. R-squared is only 0.225.

White dots below indicate the Cleveland Indians on the graph. Notice that they have been pretty good at making the most out of their limited financial resources.  

Does attendance and winning percentage correlate more than payroll/winning percentage? Not really.  R-square is only 0.241.  Look at the upper left quadrant. Many teams have decent attendance numbers with more loses than wins! Having a good team (more than 81 wins) doesn't mean attendance always follows. 

(See the graphic earlier showing Cleveland WINS vs Changes in attendance)

Cleveland Indians are the white dots below for comparison

So what does all of this mean?  

* The correlation between MORE team spending and higher attendance is strong (graphic 6, 7, 8). 

* Spending tons of money doesn't necessarily mean a higher winning percentage (graphic 9 & 10)

* Winning more games (81 or more) doesn't necessarily mean higher attendance (graphic 11 & 12)

* There are other factors (perhaps unemployment, socio-economic, other professional sports team influences) which drive attendance unrelated to team spending and team success.

Fangraphs has an excellent piece showing other factors 

Snow or Rain for Christmas week?

As of this writing (December 8) with a week removed from our heavy snowfall, the overall pattern across the US and North America has been somewhat stale. No major snow.  No major rainfall.  No extreme temperatures either way. Look at the morning lows Tuesday December 8th. No major cold.

Temperatures each day this week look fairly typical for early December. A brief period of milder air Friday and Saturday then back to near normal.

Is this "stale" pattern going to continue over the next 14 days as we approach Christmas week?

Back on December 3rd, the pattern strongly suggested a short-lived, "mid-month-ish" break from the cold with an active panhandle storm track (see the "L" on the picture below). The warmth is going to peak Friday the 11th, a few days early. 

So far, the storm track seems pretty good with primarily rain this weekend for Ohio with the majority of the snow staying across Missouri, Illinois and parts of Michigan. Snow is close but not close enough if you're a snow lover. (see animation below)

Historically, we receive at least ONE INCH or more of snow between December 24-26. Most recently 2.6" in 2018.  Who remembers the BIG snow in 2002?

Northern Pacific pattern is starting to give us BIG hints on Christmas week.  1) LOW just west of the dateline 2) Edge of high pressure south of the weak Aleutian Islands which stretches to the west coast. 3) Trough in the southwestern US which continues to promote panhandle low development

Animation from December 7 to December 23

The Southern Oscillation Index region also gives us big clues.  Recall that the SOI is an index that measures pressure changes between Australia and Tahiti. 

When we look at the southern oscillation index (SOI) data , there is a 10 point drop around December 3rd.

We can check what the pattern was like during similar SOI changes in La Nina early winters 18-22 DAYS AFTER the SOI changes. This is what those composite periods look like below.  Notice the colder colors signify CLIPPER TYPE storm systems and brief cold periods. See how quickly they move across the Great Lakes.  Also look how the southern high pressure centers quickly bounce back...

Let's not forget about the lack of significant BLOCKING around the arctic and northern Atlantic.  We look for warmer colors which signify HIGH PRESSURE around Greenland. Not much blocking currently. There are some indications that this could be changing in the upcoming week. 

This strongly suggests that the active storm track Clipper systems (NW to SE) AND panhandle systems (SW to NE) seems fairly strong over the next two weeks heading into early Christmas week. The big question is where specifically: 

Will the storm track trend more from St. Louis to southern Michigan or more east from Louisville, KY to Pittsburgh?

Early Christmas week, I see another storm system developing in the central US similar to what we have already seen. Given the east coast ridge is stronger, I think this will create a storm track more from St. Louis to Michigan vs more east.  

Temperatures across Ohio will briefly warm into the 40s at the start of Christmas week

I think we will see a better chance of rain not snow Christmas week for northern Ohio. Timing of rain (brief mix) is closer to WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23-24.

I'm watching Greenland for potential COLDER changes

 If I had to put money on it, chances for light snow on the ground Christmas Day are around 30%.