Warmer Trend Next Week. Remember Last Year? Mild December Ahead?

Using the various teleconnections as a guide for future weather pattern can be a crap shoot considering all of the random processes that occur in the atmosphere. Now consider that we are into late October--a transition month--which by itself offers a bunch of other forecasting obstacles. Forecasts can be very tricky to say the least.

I frequently post some of these workups on my Facebook Fanpage as single images.

Taking all of this into account, let's look back to last year at this time to see how the pattern was evolving in late October and November. Remember that last winter was one of the mildest EVER in northeastern Ohio.

By late October, the upper level pattern showed typical autumnal characteristics. Strong ridging and strong troughs which equated to rain and milder periods followed by cooler periods.

By early November, the trough in the east was starting to break down allowing for longer periods of milder air.

By Thanksgiving, the high pressure ridge responsible for the milder winter was almost in place.

Throughout December, the ridge south of Alaska and the ridge in the east prevented cooler outbreaks.

So temperatures across NE Ohio and eastern US were well above normal.

Notice how late October is shaping up. The projections are establishing a ridge in the east with a warmer than normal trend all next week.

Will this translate to a milder than normal pattern similar to last year? I am somewhat skeptical for two reasons: 1) Last year we were in a La Nina. This winter will be a weak El Nino at best. 2) The water temperatures in northern Atlantic close to the Canadian shoreline are VERY warm. This seems to be displacing the Greenland high so as to make the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) more favorable for colder air outbreaks.

While next week will be a nice break from our frequent rains and cooler/windier pattern recently, I don't think this Indian Summer next week will last into early winter.

Tricky System This Weekend; Lots To Cover

In my opinion, warm fronts are one the most tricky parts of a storm system to predict. The computer models in many instances have a difficult time nailing down the timing and the position of the rain associated with it. A few days ago when the different models were showing warm frontal development at multiple levels, I paused.

I've been burned before. Will this warm front lift north taking the moisture with it or will it hesitate and stall temporarily causing some rain along the turnpike corridor?  Complicating matters are that this is going down over a weekend in mid October when most people will be enjoying fall activities as the leaves are reaching peak. The other factors show a trailing cold front which will push winds to near criteria levels Sunday with temperatures in the 70s with some scattered storms....during the Browns game! One can argue that an act of God is the only thing that can help the Browns but I digress.

The surface map today (Friday October 12th) show the beginnings of the weekend system in the south.

Dew points (available moisture) climbs Saturday and Sunday.

One projection takes the rain over the extreme 1/4 of Northeastern Ohio tomorrow afternoon. I'm not liking this!

Yet the amount of rain shown on the forecast map from the HPC doesn't reflect this. Now you know why warm fronts are tough.

The winds plotted on this chart through Sunday shows the increase in EVERY model outlook. With winds like this, it seems more plausible that the winds will help push the front further north keeping the bulk of the rain away from northeastern Ohio. I circled Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The bottom line is that the forecast details for Saturday will be changing on the fly. I wouldn't cancel outdoor activities but I would stay tuned for updates in the morning. Let's not forget about Sunday...showers and gusty winds for the Browns game for sure!!!

Is October Weather An Accurate Gauge For Winter?

We love to look ahead.  We are addicted to predicting all elements of our future. Where will you be in 3 years, 5 years?  New job in your future?  How about kids? Enough money to retire?  Whether we like it or not, we do subconscious prognostications all of the time. It makes us feel like we have control.

How about the talking heads on television and the web who claim to have a crystal ball into what the economy will look like 3 months, 6, 9 months or a year? They are a dime a dozen.  "Expert" analysts and internet pollsters write ad nauseum about their data, complex homemade algorithms and other techniques in predicting the next President. Once again, we doubt their validity, we doubt their methods yet we love hearing what the future may hold.  For me, its a bit of a rush. This rush is one of the reasons why I've loved meteorology since I was a kid.


No time of year does a look into our weather future feel better than in October. Those thoughts of snow so abruptly pushed into the dark recesses of our mind last winter beginning their mental resurface. The first cold snap hits and what happens? We immediately ask ourselves TWO QUESTIONS?

When is the first snow?  and How cold and snowy will this winter be?

...To which I answer silently to myself: "I haven't a clue".


Yet we NEED AN ANSWER to satisfy our insatiable need to know the future. An answer gives us the subconscious control that we crave.  So I try to give everyone my best "shot in the dark" given the patterns that we see currently.  Do October patterns indicate the winter ahead? Is the October pattern the crystal ball that we all believe it to be?

I plotted the temperatures for each OCTOBER since 1997 next to the DECEMBER/JANUARY of winter that followed:  Here are the plots in order. Yellow/Orange colors indicate above normal temps. Blue shades are temps cooler than normal.

Looking strictly at Northeastern Ohio, here are the results:

6 of the 15 Octobers above were BELOW NORMAL.  

Of those 6, only 2 of those December/Januaries that followed were BELOW NORMAL too. 

6 of the 15 Octobers were ABOVE NORMAL. 

Of those 6, only 4 of those December/Januaries that followed were ABOVE NORMAL.

The bottom line is that there are no statistical patterns to predicting the winter by looking at October. 

I know its not the answer you hoped for but its the truth. Maybe we need to stick to the Woollybear or Onion Peels or.............

Great Lake Erie Waterspout/Cold Air Funnel Photos from Lake Erie

Another burst of colder air (25-30 degrees at 5000 feet) this past weekend which interacted with the warmer Lake Erie (65-70 degrees) created the sharp temperature difference necessary to facilitate some very wild variations of weather. Hail producing thunderstorms and of course waterspouts or as they are technically known as "COLD AIR FUNNELS". But whose counting.

Here are the photos that I received in no particular order either through FACEBOOK, TWITTER OR EMAIL. 

I didn't have the chance to include everyone's name below each photo. So thank you ALL for submitting these great pictures. Your hard work never goes without notice.

The Evolution and Devolution of Facebook Comments

I love doing Facebook experiments. 

The feeling of getting people fired up after posting a hot-button topic is second to none! For me, its like election day sitting at home when the polls close. I just sit and watch the results, or in this case comments, come pouring in.

Why do I do this? I guess its the sarcastic, chaotic side of me merging with the scientific side which loves witnessing the human condition in action.

Social Networking represents a cultural paradigm shift that's very strange if you're not used to it. The vale of anonymity the internet provides creates an environment where the degradation of responsibility becomes the norm.  Behavior becomes more primal; comment threats are driven by impulse and emotion.  Best of all, its totally predictable.

Before I start a FB experiment, I chose a topic or subject. It doesn't have to be specific as long as it has the staying power of more than a few hours. These days, my post usually points to an article or less frequently, a blanket question. I try to avoid asking a question because its like shaking hornets nest. You know what you'll get and its not good.  So my tried and tested approach of posting neutral statements with an attached article as a reference usually presumptively extinguishes the fire of some of the hot headed commentors.

Remember that this is an experiment so the aim is to create a post that by itself is neutral but can spawn comments both pro and con yet objective. Except in many instances, it doesn't work out this way. Most Facebook comment threads usually degrade into either one and/or several thought patterns.

Enter into the ring:  Human Nature.



Comment 1 through 9 are by in large objective and directly related to the post. Unbiased, thought provoking responses that are worth reading. I find myself responding to these the most. Very engaging, rational people for the most part.

By comment 10, somehow the topic gets spun from its original subject matter into a rant about religion or race or both. One person will relate the topic or another comment to a greater religious ideal. This fuels more theologically based comments.  Since this an election year, comment 11 through 20 take on a political tone which begins with taxes, debt, government and rich people. 

By comment 30, most comments either have a blend of religion, politics and a few expletives for reinforcement. Can you get more incendiary? Someone will try the rational approach in quieting the sharp comments of the others but will have little effect. The toxic blend of religion and politics is too hard to overcome.

If you comments reach the magic number of 40, the comments continue their rapid downward spiral into the world of comments about the commentor or what I like to call "commenter vs commenter crime". Instead of comments relating to the topic or the unrelated topics mentioned in comment 10 through 39, the comments now attack one or many of the various people commenting. These can be flat out assaults of the person's manliness or intelligence. 

After a while, most people have lost interest as the comment threat now 50 plus deep permanently resides in an abyss where the laws of rational thinking no longer apply.

Many scientists believe that the universe trillions of years from now will be filled with random particles fighting for existence in a cosmos void of anything substantive. The Facebook comment thread past 50 resembles this theoretical late stage universe in that only a few stubborn commentors will be left.  While the original post has run its course these few commentors continue to fight for Facebook post supremacy by themselves while everyone else has moved on.

Facebook comments are akin to a clockwork machine. At first, the components move real smooth. After a time, the machine needs to be cleaned and lubricated. If not, it runs rough, gets a bit squeaky and might begin to rust and possibly seize up. Most Facebook comment threads are no different. Not all Facebook comments follow this path but many do. Beautiful photos of your family or pet, sunrises or sunsets are the notable exceptions.  

Watch my posts on my Facebook Fanpage. Sometimes I will "conduct" an experiment to see where the comments go. Check out this phenomena for yourself. How many times has the Facebook comment machine seized up? 

More often than not I'm afraid.

Are We Done With 80 Degree Temps This Year?

It happens each year.

The first cool snap and everyone is rushing to prematurely proclaim the end of summer, an early start to fall and snow by Halloween. I see the posts on Facebook and I just shake my head. Sure, sometimes it works out this way but often times, their is still some summer warmth left in the tank in October.

Quickly, I checked the October highs over the last 30 years (since 1982) to see how often we reached 80+ degrees. It doesn't happen very often. Try only 3% of the time! Only 9 times did we reach 80+ twice in one year (Last year, 2007 and 2005 were the last instances)

What does the pattern say? It is strongly hinting at a longer surge of cooler air not only across northern Ohio but across the eastern half of the country! Take a look at the current upper level steering currents. Notice the trough (dip) in the flow.

This is NOT the pattern we saw this past summer. Remember the heat around the 4th of July? Look at where the trough was back then. Obviously no where near the eastern US and Ohio.

By the middle of August, the ridge was breaking down and the trough started to build weakly in the east cooling temperatures off allowing a series of rain producing systems to alleviate drought conditions a bit.

The strength and duration of the cooler pattern is determined by the characteristics of the trough. If the trough's amplitude and wavelength are very high, the pattern becomes more difficult to change once its established. This diagram of a sound wave works well in describing the upper level wave that governs our weather.

Check out the computer model projections for late next week. The trough is deep and very wide on just about all of them.

All of these projections tell me a few things:

1) The cool down will be sharp and long lasting (3-5 days or more)

2) 80 degree high temperatures will be very hard to come by if this pattern becomes stagnant late in the month. Remember that 3% chance statistically in October earlier

3) Even if the trough ends up not being as deep and wide as indicated above, the chances of temperatures being below normal are very high.

3) The frequency of rain producing fronts will be much higher in the the next 10 days

As always, stay tuned to the latest forecast. The specific details will be in better focus as we start next week.