New England Snowstorm Update

Radar is still showing the two system phasing together...given the wind gusts tonight, thousands of people will be without power by Saturday. CURRENT RADAR LOOP LINK

Winds will exceed 60-70 mph along the coast

Sea surface temperatures are well above normal along the coast which according to some, might be amplifying the moisture content within the storm hence the high snow numbers..After looking at the actual sea surface temperatures, the numbers are not that high (in fact fairly cool) so the connection between higher precipitation amounts and the sea surface temperatures might not be as clear cut. In fact, a study done in 1988 says that "Surface energy fluxes had no significant impact on the development during the 24 hour period of rapid deepening" (courtesy Dr Ryan Maue)

Snow forecast amounts still showing 25"+ inches in eastern Massachusetts.

New England Nor-Easter Update

An historical New England storm is developing rapidly.

The National Weather Service office in Boston released this URGENT MESSAGE.....

Winter storm warnings and Blizzard warnings are posted for most of New England

The RPM model shows the circulation center off of the coast tonight

Initial snowfall forecasts could exceed 24 inches!

New England Blizzard Snowfall Update

The models are in better agreement showing the areas with heavy snow. The question is whether or not the higher model output numbers (30"+) will continue in the next runs today and tonight. Here is the 12Z hi resolution NAM snowfall accumulations forecast. Notice the two bulls eyes of 30"+ circled in black.

Updates later today and this evening...

Trip to Okinawa: Awesome "Random" Photos

I made it a point to do several things while overseas:

1. Observe everything: People watch. Look for subtle cultural nuances
2. Experience as much of the culture as possible.
3. Eat only Japanese food.
4. Try to converse in basic Japanese, i.e. "Please, Thank You, Hello, Good-bye"
5. Don't attempt to drive (they drive on the left side of the street)
6. Take as many pictures as possible that show the uniqueness of the culture even if it seems a bit strange

(All 6 goals were met until one dinner when the only viable option was a steak. I didn't complain.)

...Which brings me to number 6.

Normally, I focus on taking pictures of nature. An island in the Pacific offers infinite possibilities. The city also provides a great landscape for shots that tell a story of the metropolis--the city and its complex movements big and small frozen in time.

I couldn't help but see the many signs that don't translate well into English.

Some signs just make you laugh...what kind of coffee show is this?!

People are not laid to rest in cemeteries in Okinawa. Above ground tombs are used. They are located in some of the strangest places. These tombs are about the size of a shed; made of stone and marble.

Beverage vending machines are all over the place. They have both cold and warm beverages.

You'll find them EVERYWHERE and the most random places. Here is one that is next to a tomb. The service truck pulls up, fills the machine and goes on his way.

Forget, IHOP. Here, some restaurants have a conveyor belt with all kinds of sushi rotating around the restaurant.

You had better finish your dinner or this guy will rough you up!

Want a snack of almond and fish?

Snakes in booze.

One random observation:  I continued to follow the changing weather here in Ohio while overseas. I had to Google the link to the Storm Prediction Center website to find severe weather updates. Normally a Google search of "SPC" in the States yields the "Storm Prediction Center" website at the top. In Japan, the Storm Prediction Center was no where to be seen. However, the 11th listing for "SPC" in Japan was "Supergirls".  I didn't investigate further.

My Trip to Okinawa in Pictures: Post #1

Shuri Castle in Okinawa

My trip to the other side of the planet was an adventure. Navigating airports both here in the U.S. and abroad was a trip in and of itself.  What continues to amaze me after years of flying from Mexico to Europe and around the U.S. is the commercial flight machine. I check in at Hopkins Airport, receive my boarding passes for all of the connections around the world!  The whole process in an involuntary process like breathing:  It happens yet we think nothing of it.

Its so easy to take this complex system of airports, airplanes and airlines now all connected to reservation sites like Priceline.com & expedia.com for granted. Consider that thousands of flights occurs globally each day at all hours of the night transporting tens of millions of people each day, its amazing that the air travel system with all of these various parts and people function--in most cases--with such a high level of efficiency.  But I digress...

As for jet lag, I didn't have a problem when I first got there. Once home in northern Ohio after 22 hours of flying each way with at least an hours worth of delays combined along with passport and customs checks, my body was thrown off and still is somewhat.  Since normally I am up at 1:50AM for work, adjusting back to normal time has been much easier than expected.

I took more than 400 photos while visiting Okinawa. I narrowed these 400 down to 61. Here are 16 of them focusing on nature.  Enjoy!

Tree stripped of branches from several typhoons

More stripped trees on the beach now coming back

Rock formation with erosion carved base from ocean water

230 foot cliff at Hedo Point - Northern tip of Okinawa

Hedo Point Cliff

Cave stalactites below Okinawa World

Banyon Tree

Midday overlooking a South China Sea inlet

South China Sea

Picture of resort from 1500 feet over the South China Sea

Aerial look of South China Sea coastline with shallow ocean, sediment deposits

Okinawa highlands from 1500 feet. Pacific Ocean in background

Sunset over the South China Sea

Lighthouse

Latest Snow Depth Reports - NORTHERN OHIO

Here are the latest NWS snow depth reports as of Wednesday morning at 10AM. Although the map doesn't show it, almost 18 inches in spots in the heart of the snow belt according to one report.

***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION                 SNOW     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     ON GROUND           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
   PIERPONT 2SE          10.0   815 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ASHTABULA              9.0   645 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ASHTABULA 1SW          6.0   800 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   NEW WASHINGTON 5S        T   817 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NW BUCYRUS             T   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
   EUCLID                 6.0   819 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND-EDGEWATER    2.0   829 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GARFIELD HTS           1.0   748 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI   1.0   700 AM  1/23  ASOS
   SOLON                  1.0   730 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 SE BRECKSVILLE       0.5   620 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

...GEAUGA COUNTY...
   1 SSE MONTVILLE       13.5   600 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   THOMPSON 5SW          13.0   700 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MONTVILLE             12.0   609 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CHARDON               12.0   610 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH MADSION         10.0   739 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLARIDON TWP           9.0   807 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NE MIDDLEFIELD       7.5   800 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   BURTON                 5.0   800 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...HURON COUNTY...
   NEW LONDON 3NW           T   838 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...LAKE COUNTY...
   1 SW KIRTLAND         14.5   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   MADISON VILLAGE        7.0   702 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MENTOR                 5.0   730 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PERRY TOWNSHIP         5.0   655 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WILLOUGHBY             4.0   904 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MADISON-ON-THE-LAKE    3.0   752 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...LORAIN COUNTY...
   SE ELYRIA              1.5   810 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   SHEFFIELD LAKE         1.0   837 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 E SHEFFIELD LAKE     0.5   830 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   AVON                     T   855 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...LUCAS COUNTY...
   2 ENE TOLEDO             T   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPO     T   700 AM  1/23  ASOS

...MEDINA COUNTY...
   BRUNSWICK              1.0   732 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NE BRUNSWICK         0.5   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

...PORTAGE COUNTY...
   HIRAM                  1.0   849 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   N HIRAM                0.8   800 AM  1/23  COCORAHS
   2 SSW STREETSBORO      0.7   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

...RICHLAND COUNTY...
   MANSFIELD LAHM AIRPO   1.0   700 AM  1/23  ASOS

...SANDUSKY COUNTY...
   E LINDSEY              0.5   500 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

...SUMMIT COUNTY...
   CAK AIRPORT            1.0   700 AM  1/23  ASOS
   STOW                   1.0   913 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TWINSBURG                T   700 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER

...TRUMBULL COUNTY...
   MESOPOTAMIA            3.0   954 AM  1/23  TRAINED SPOTTER
   YOUNGSTOWN WARREN AI   2.0   700 AM  1/23  ASOS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   1 N KIDRON               T   700 AM  1/23  COCORAHS

Lake effect continues out east.....HERE IS THE NWS CURRENT RADAR LOOP LINK

How Much Lake Effect Next 2 Days?

Snow in Geneva - Rt 20

Science is harder to understand than buying into conspiracy theories or old wives' tales.
People like a good narrative versus unbiased science or weather explanations on why forecasts are difficult. Stories are easier to digest. Science is not. People feel conflicted with science so they grasp unsubstantiated theories or stories to make them feel at ease. That's my psychology 101 lesson of the day. :) Quiz tomorrow...

Such is the case with Lake Effect Snow. The science of lake effect is well documented. Yet the official forecasts are riddled with ranges like 8-12" or 7-14". These type of ranges are not what the public wants. They want certainty. They want something cut-and-dry. They want exact numbers for their town. Most times, its not possible. Lake Effect Forecasts are a mix of science w/ alot of uncertainty; randomness and a dash of art! Or as a colleague of mine once said: "Its like nailing Jello to a wall." 

                                 ---------------------------------------------------------

We already looked at the different variables that go into lake effect snow prediction in my previous post. The one element that really stands out Tuesday is the difference between the 5000 foot level and the lake water temperature. Once the difference gets above 13 degrees (in celsius), the amount of lift/evaporation becomes significant enough to create lake effect snow  Tomorrow, the difference hits 28!  Back in January of 2009, we had a similar situation regarding the cold air aloft.

What was the high that day? How about 6

Light snow in Carollton, Ohio Monday morning

The heaviest and more widespread lake effect snow will develop this evening, tonight and tomorrow as the coldest air in 4 years moves across the area! Here are the headlines:


* Expect to hear some thunder tomorrow *
* Wind Chill will drop to 10 below! *

The winds will shift from the WSW to the WNW tonight and tomorrow which will shift any lake effect snow south. Some areas that need to be watched are LORAIN, WESTLAKE and southern CUYAHOGA COUNTY. The second map shows the TOTAL accumulations from today through early Wednesday. Most of this will fall late tonight and TUESDAY.

Pockets of lake effect mainly east today as winds are out of the west and WSW. Not much accumulation south of Cleveland...an inch or two. Temps stay around 20 with wind chills in the single digits. Here are accumulations for TODAY ONLY

More updates as needed!