What is Driving this March Cold Spell?

At this point in the winter (now early Spring), we are all getting very annoyed with the cold. A few weeks ago when highs approached 70, the general populous assumed that this signified the end of the cold. The meteorological gods have had other ideas.

So what is driving this cold? The answer lies in the teleconnections derived from the pressure patterns in the higher latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific North American Index (PNA). I wrote extensively about each of these indices last year during our mild winter (2010-11) which you can read here. Even late in the season, these 3 teleconnections can still have a HUGE impact on the weather across the US.  As I write this, we are watching clusters of lake effect snow dropping several inches of "partly cloudy" across parts of the north coast

Back to the THREE indices...the more negative the NAO is, the stronger the northwest component which most times leads to a much stronger cold pattern. The AO is the NAO's close cousin. The more negative the AO, the better the propensity for colder periods and frequent clipper like systems. 

How strong is this NAO signature?  I looked back at Marches that had more than 2 straight days with NAOs below -1.5.  Why did I pick -1.5? Currently, the NAO is well below -1.5 and falling so -1.5 was a good starting point. Checking all of the data, I could only find 6 YEARS that match:  2011, 2001, 1980, 1977, 1962 & 1952.  I didn't use 2001 because those instances occurred in early march.  I plotted the NAO from March 10th through April 4th (to get some data overlap on both ends of the plot) to see if there was a pattern. Notice that in each year, the NAO bottomed out at the end of the month in EACH YEAR. Whether this is a statistical correlation or something more atmospheric, I'm not sure. More analysis would be needed to figure this out.

Where does this year rank in comparison to these years?  WAY BELOW THIS GRAPH. In fact, one model yesterday had the NAO dropping to -4.

Even if this model is a bit aggressive in its NAO forecast, we are still looking at temperatures staying WELL BELOW NORMAL for a while.

Is this cold spell some sort of record for this time of year? Surprisingly, not even close. Here is where this year's cold spell (starting after that warm Sunday a few weeks back) ranks ALL-TIME...How about 40th!

Do March Cold Stretches Lead to Milder Aprils?

Everyone is asking if this abnormally cold pattern will lead to a colder or warmer April?

Let's look at the Aprils of the past statistically after stretches of cold in mid to late March similar to this one.  The coldest stretches between March 15th and 24th were in these years. (So far, this stretch in 2013 (assuming that the extended forecast holds) is ranked 8th coldest.)

How were the temperatures in the following Aprils in these years? Here are the composites for each year. 4 of the 8 occurred before 1910.

APRIL 1906

APRIL 1960

APRIL 1872

APRIL 1885

APRIL 1896

APRIL 1956

APRIL 2006

APRIL 1967

The only years in this list that had COLDER than normal temperatures in NORTHERN OHIO were 1956 and 1885.  So statistically, the chances for an April with ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES after a stretch of cold like what we are experiencing in this part of March are fairly good. Let's hope the actual meteorological pattern matches up.

Why is the Winter Pattern Lingering So Long?

This is the most asked question over the last week or so of northern Ohio residents. March of 2013 is the polar opposite of March of 2012 when we had a handful of 80 degree days en route to the warmest March in 140+ years of record keeping.  So far this March (through the 17th) temperatures rank 67th coldest---right in the middle of the 142 years of record keeping.

I only have a few minutes this morning due to the winter precipitation moving through the area along with my multiple weather segments so I'll keep my analysis brief:

The answer lies within the 3 major indices that govern our patterns. The AO (Arctic Oscillation), the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the PNA (Pacific North American Pattern). Last winter (2011-12) I wrote an extensive explanation on these three teleconnections. You can read it here.

Each index plays a different role at different times of year. In the summer, many of these indices are not as strong. But in March, they can play havoc with the development of spring warmups. The Sunday we had recently with temperatures at 70+ was the one bright spot in this colder than normal pattern.

Recently, these indices that measure the strength of arctic storm patterns (AO, NAO) are strongly negative which mean colder than normal. (graphic courtesy: Dr. Ryan Maue)

The PNA (pacific north american pattern) has been trending positive. All of these keep the NW flow aloft firmly entrenched keeping temperatures well below normal across the eastern US.

Not to worry. The "nickel-and-dime" cold punches WILL end......at some point :)

Where Does This Winter's Average Temperature Rank in Northern Ohio?

The results come on the heals of a Facebook post I made asking to rank this winter on a scale of 1 to 10, ten being the worst winter. Surprisingly, most people said it was between a 3 and a 5. A few were above 7, a handful were down at the bottom of the scale. I thought it would have ranked higher given the comments recently after the temperatures fell more than 20 degrees.

So what does the data say?  I ran the numbers of all the years since 1871 from December 1st through March 10th and ranked the past 13 winters. You'll see last winter is close to the top of the list. This winter was much further down the list.  Here is the graph:

Now the ranks of each winter since 2000. Surprisingly, many of the winters since 2000 are fairly far down the list away from the warmer winters historically. This year ranks 32nd warmest of 143 winters!

Why are stocks rising when growth is so slow?

I love to read about a variety of topics as many of you know. One of the subjects is economics and the present state of the economy. Why? There is so much I don't know. Simple as that.

The big question in the midst of this market rally is why are stocks so high while unemployment/growth is so slow? Here are some excerpts from a well known economist which tells the story beautifully: I paraphrased the article. The link to the complete article is below

"The financial crisis and the bursting of the housing bubble created a situation in which almost all of the economy’s major players are simultaneously trying to pay down debt by spending less than their income...

...right now everyone wants to save and nobody wants to invest...excess savings are driving down borrowing costs...Stocks are high, in part, because bond yields are so low, and investors have to put their money somewhere.

It’s also true, however, that while the economy remains deeply depressed, corporate profits have staged a strong recovery. And that’s a bad thing! Not only are workers failing to share in the fruits of their own rising productivity, hundreds of billions of dollars are piling up in the treasuries of corporations that, facing weak consumer demand, see no reason to put those dollars to work."

FULL ARTICLE HERE

Hence, the markets are soaring but income is hardly rising, unemployment is high and the overall upward trend of the US GDP is not high enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate. 

Basically, We have a long way to go!

Behavorial Meteorology: Why Can't We Handle Forecasts

We generally hate probabilities in life...especially in weather forecasts. For our minds to grasp probabilities, we need to be able to handle multiple possible outcomes at once. Weather has many, many outcomes over a large area due to the changing initial conditions. Typically, our brains work much better with a theme that is linear. That is with a beginning, middle and an end. In other words, we want to know if it will rain or not. We crave "black and white" scenarios. We love a good narrative, a story, versus something that is data driven.

I try to explain the multiple variables that go into a forecast for the many locations around the viewing area which will be affected. For most, it goes in one ear and out the other.  Our minds don't easily recognize the probability elements and instead, we favor a story that fits our biases. If someone doesn't like the forecaster, they have less of a chance of being believed. If it doesn't rain over their house when the probability is 90% chance of rain, the forecaster is wrong. Even if the rest of the area was hit with a good downpour.  We find elements of the story that fit our preconceived notions about the subject and hold onto them even if data says otherwise. Remember the psychology when you hear a weather forecast. Its never as straight forward as we'd like it to be.

Snowfall Numbers Through the End of February

Over the last 4 winters, the snowfall ups and downs have been significant. Here are the seasonal snowfall totals through the end of February over the last 4 winters (This winter, 2011-12, 2010-11 & 2009-10)

Why Do I Like The Most About Television Meteorology?

When people ask me what I like the best about my job as a television meteorologist, I explain that its the perfect right brained-left brained activity. Its like solving equations while painting a picture. Most seem surprised at my answer and reply "It must be super-cool to work on TV everyday". Here is my reply.

While it is fun each morning working on the number one morning show in Cleveland, it requires alot of work that unfortunately most people don't see. The left brained element of my job--analyzing the meteorology-- while challenging, isn't the hardest part. Telling the story in a concise manner--the right brained element--was and still is the challenge. Let me explain both in detail:


First thing I do in the morning is analyze the latest computer model forecast data from different layers of the atmosphere. My browser lights up with about 23 individual tabs with each housing a separate set of data either in text or graphical form. Some animate, some are static. Before leaving for work, I have a good mental picture of the weather setup for the day. I eliminate any computer model that has a bias to the specific weather situation. Some models handle certain weather patterns differently than others. Once I get to work, I make final adjustments to the overall forecast using the final National Weather Service discussion and other summaries. There might be a forecast element you missed so its essential to not discount the NWS. This completes the left brained side of my job. The science is done.

As I drive to work each day, the right-brained part begins. I literally envision the weather forecast in a storyboard. This helps tremendously in "writing" the story which I will convey to the viewer. Once I get to the station, I take this storyboard and begin to select the graphical elements that best illustrate my mental picture. Our weather system has 3D animations, static pictures, computer simulations of weather data and many forecast elements that are "pulled out" of other graphics through "hot spots" embedded in the graphic triggered by my hand live on the air! (The trick is remembering is where you embedded all that stuff!) All of these aid in creating a strong slide show that is both visual, informative and most of all relevant to the weather of the day. Remember that we don't read a teleprompter. We present the weather forecast and all of its elements extemporaneously. A good way to remember it is the right brained part is made up of three separate elements: Visualization, illustration and presentation. All of these elements are dependent on the other. All are necessary to TELL THE STORY! By the way, none of this counts the separate elements that I create for social networking sites (Facebook, twitter) and other blog posts.

During the show, I often research topics to write about while juggling weather segments from both inside the studio and outside in the FOX8 front yard. All the while, listening to the show for changes and the well placed time cues from the producer in my earpiece. Its like carrying on a conversation while listening to music counting the beat in each measure! Its an exercise in multitasking.

So you see that television isn't at all about being famous. Its not about being glamorous. There is this perception that being in front of a camera on a television news program would be the closest thing to being a movie star. In this era of reality television where seemingly everyday people attain fame and fortune I can see why. The idea of having your "15 minutes of fame" can be very alluring to some. The attention you receive for working on a television show can be very intoxicating to the poorly initiated and inexperienced often blinding you of what really matters. That is "TELLING THE STORY". The main focus of any television reporter, anchor or meteorologist should be telling the story to your best ability, for the benefit of the viewer and to continue to tell the story better each time using all of the tools available! That's more rewarding than being in front of a camera. Unfortunately for many, this often times takes a back seat to the feeling of being in the limelight.

For me, its always been about having a job that stimulates my left brain and right brain. Its about pushing yourself to improve. Its about honing your craft of telling the story....while have some fun in the process.

Wintery Mix Breaking Apart...

Friday morning update shows temps in the lower 20s. Bursts of snow in western areas, not much in Cleveland east or south. As temperatures climb, any remaining spotty snow will transition to on and off sleet and freezing rain. Little accumulation. Expect temps to rise into the mid 30s by noon with some drizzle...40s to the west by late afternoon

Russian Meteor Explosion - What We Know Now

No, Meteorologists don't study meteors. However, in times like this when a meteor impacts the earth, we are usually called upon to shed light on the scientific specifics. Here is what we know: * This was a random event * According to the European Space Angency, there is no relation to the asteroid expected to pass within the orbits of geostationary satellites later Friday. * The Russian meteor was moving between roughly 20-30,000 mph and exploded at an altitude of 30,000 feet about 930 miles east of Moscow. * Its initial size is estimated to be around 10 tons. * The damage was caused by the shock wave from the blast NOT its impact with the ground. This pressure pulse (sonic boom) caused windows and doors to blow out. Security camera video shows this perfectly. * After the blast, pieces of the main meteor rained down damaging roofs to buildings. The size of those smaller pieces isn't know yet. Meteor explosions in the atmosphere are not uncommon. Most of the time, these meteors explode or fall into the ocean. Remember that the earth is 75% water. Meteors this size (10 tons) are not as common. GREAT VIDEO COMPILATION of the meteor event. We will know more information about this event by the end of the day.