Does the Homerun Derby REALLY mess up players swings?

I love posts that dispel myths of all sorts. After reading about the psychology of our love with fanciful stories (narratives) fueled by information that fits our preconceived notions versus solid data driven evidence (especially concerning economics and science) versus solid data driven evidence (especially concerning economics and science), its not hard to see how our worldly observations are heavily biased. We hate feeling conflicted; we hate to be wrong.

The baseball Home Run Derby is no different.

The myth goes like this: Most players who participate in the Home Run Derby will have their swings irrevocably altered the rest of the season resulting in a huge drop in home runs. 


A great post on Fan Graphs examines the data and found some interesting results that helps dispel this myth:  FANGRAPHS POST

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The Home Run Derby is kind of counter-intuitive to many MLB managers. Old-schoolers like Mike Scioscia would rather his players did not participate, saying, “I haven’t seen somebody come away from that derby and be a better player for it.”¹ The Home Run Derby turns the team game into an individual competition. Players exhaust themselves and risk tweaking their swings, but has the derby really affected the second-half performance of its participants?

To answer this question I looked at what goes into a player’s stats. There is a lot of luck involved in baseball, so I took a look at the differences in the way players hit the ball before the derby compared to after the derby. Looking at the past five derbies, I calculated the average batted-ball flight for players that were healthy for both halves of the season

The HR to FB ratio drops considerably, and could explain a decrease in batting average and slugging percentage, as well as on-base percentage. It seems that players hit the ball the same way, just with slightly less power.

The large drop is ISO shows that indeed power does decrease for derby participants in the second half, and the overall line shows that players do perform worse. It’s not merely a function of hitting the ball to the wrong place, as the .oo6 drop in Bating Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) is not really significant. Players strike out a little bit more, but the notion that players change their swings and have trouble hitting the ball the same way after participating in the derby seems misguided when considering the small change in K% along with the consistent batted-ball percentages outlined in the first table.

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So, NO CHANGE IN TYPES OF BALLS HIT. I speculate that (all other factors being equal) given the small 1% increase in strikeouts, the drop in power (home runs) in the second half of the season could be the result of fatigue.

July 17th Drought Update

Drought conditions still exist in the west.

The corn belt is still enjoying good soil conditions.

HERE IS WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE IN JULY OF LAST YEAR

...NOW TODAY'S DROUGHT CONDITIONS

Does Rainfall Effect High Temperatures?

90 degree heat is here and its been a long time coming. After a rainy/cooler than normal spring along with the more recent 8-10 inch rainfalls over the last two weeks, this round of warmth is a welcome break. I don't want to lessen the significance of the flooding last week since many areas are still cleaning up. But the heavy rains and subsequent saturated ground is a welcome sign as the daytime highs soar north of 90.

FOX8 Front yard on July 13th -- Lush Green Grass!

I talked about this earlier in the spring and summer:  WET GROUND SUPPRESSES HIGH TEMPERATURES!  Large scale factors like the heat dome overhead can override this effect somewhat depending on how large in extent the wet ground goes.

Here is a map of the rainfall numbers compared to normal for the first 14 days of July.

Here is the location of this VERY STRONG AND DEEP heat dome. The center is right over Ohio. The 600dm (decameters--height of the high pressure dome) is a rarity over Ohio. In fact, last summer, I don't recall the heat domes over ANY part of the US pushing above 600.

When you superimpose the heat dome location over the rainfall map, you see that the center is over the saturated ground over Ohio and Kentucky. High temperatures on Monday only hit 91.

Last year, the heat dome was well west of Ohio yet daytime highs in July reached 98 TWICE. The ground in the first weeks of July was incredibly dry!

  

Historically, 42% of our 90 degree days occur in July.

 

We had many more days above 95 in the 1940s and 1950s than we've had since.

So will the wet ground override the effects of the strong OHIO CENTERED heat dome over the next few days keeping temperatures in the 90 to 93 degree range versus what happened last year at this time? 

I say YES.  Check back on Friday as the heat retreats west.

Heavy Rain/Storms Continue Today: Day #16 and Counting

Towering Cumulus over Lake Erie: Photo by Scott Sabol

Did the thunder wake you up last night/early this morning? We still have MORE rain and storms today then a HUGE break tomorrow and this weekend. The forecast today goes like this: Morning storms move out over the next several hours...a nice break as the temps climb into the high 80s with hazy sun late morning/midday. The area circled on the left side of the map below shows where the redevelopment will occur later this morning along the sweeping cold front.

That redevelopment will make it into Ohio this afternoon/early evening. Some of these storms will reach severe limits (winds of at least 58 mph and/or 3/4" hail) Areas especially in Richland/Ashland Counties that have already received 5"+ of rain over the last 2 days will have high water problems made worse by this afternoon noon's rainfall.

Here are the impressive rainfall numbers: 

July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport.

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900.  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!

* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966

Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE NEVER GONE MORE THAN 7 DAY STRAIGHT WITH RAINFALL!

Just how rainy has it been since this stretch started?  Here are the rain totals over the last 5 years over the same days. These are the official numbers at Hopkins. Some areas have received DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS!

More later...

Consecutive Rain Streak Continues...

"When will it end?!"

The collective question of all residents of northern Ohio is resonating loudly.  The answer is very soon. 

"This rain must be some sort of record", you ask.

The answer is we've had unsettled, rainy patterns in mid summer like this before. 2009 was one such summer. Temps were "cooler"...rainfall was plentiful. The recency effect (the cognitive bias which weighs current events with more importance than past events) is at work here.  Our perceptions of weather extremes are a prime example of this.

While above normal rainfall has occurred in the past, its the "frequency of the rain" this summer that sits at the front of our memory. Here are the bullet points:

* July 9th marks the 15th straight day with at least a TRACE of rainfall at Hopkins Airport. 

I scoured the rainfall records for JUNE through AUGUST of EVERY YEAR since 1900. (Yes, I looked at over ten thousand days of data--10,488 days...whew).  What I found was very surprising:

It's NEVER happened...EVER!

* The last time we had 14 straight days with at least a TRACE of rain was in 1928.

* The next in line, 11 straight days:  2004, 1961, 1935
* ...10 straight days: 1977, 1973, 1947, 1966

Its easier to count the years with small stretches of rain. Check this out:

76% OF THE SUMMER'S SINCE 1900 HAVE HAD LESS THAN 7 DAY STRETCHES WITH RAINFALL!





The streak should end at 16 days when the first cold front in several weeks changes the pattern into the weekend.

Cabrera and Davis Leading The Way

Courtesy: ESPN

I distinctly remember looking at Miguel Cabrera's stats a few years ago after 6+ years in the big leagues and speculated:  IF he kept up his pace through his prime years and into his early 30s, his overall numbers would look real Hall of Fame-like.  Here we are 3 years later. His numbers haven't wavered. The pace he's on is historic and he's getting better at the age of 30! All of this happening a decade AFTER the long ball era  faded into the baseball traditionalist world for further debate.

Courtesy: MLB.si

Not to be overlooked is Chris Davis's season:  0.320 average, leading MLB in slugging with 33 homers, 85 RBI a week before the All-Star break. Statistical speculation for Davis is tough considering his sporadic playing time before last season since 2008. Prior to last season, he played in 100 games only one time. His 2012 season was impressive with 33 homers, 85 RBI.  So impressive are his numbers this season, only 7 players have had MORE homers before the All-Star break.

Both Cabrera and Davis are entering into downright historic single season statistical territory. Here are the HOME RUN and RBI lists through the All-Star Break. Both Cabrera and Davis are climbing high.

The list of 30+ homer season BEFORE the All-Star Break is impressive

Most RBIs before the All Star Break:

 

Hot Dogs and The Law of Diminishing Returns

The Law of Diminishing Returns as it relates to food intake is one of the most underrated laws of the universe. Most think of gravity as a universal law experienced everywhere. But when it pertains to the consumption of certain foods and beverages, this law is as ubiquitous as any physical law.

The basic premise of the Law of Diminishing Returns as it relates to food and drink is this:

You believe that each successive helping of food will replicate the pleasure you experienced with the first helping. You've convinced yourself of this.  Nothing will alter your belief.  It becomes an absolute.  You are hellbent on recreating that euphoria.  Nothing will stop you. After you finished eating or drinking any successive helping, disappointment settles in as you realize it didn't taste as good as the first.  You question the food.  You question yourself saying silently "What am I doing?" That realization hits you hard. You experience a rapid and intense depression.

A mistake was been made.  You become hard on yourself and wonder out loud why you continued with that second helping knowing full well that your glutinous behavior would be an exercise in futility.  Your confidence returns and you swear you will NEVER make the same mistake again.  Yet in the near future, when the same opportunity presents itself, you do exactly the opposite believing that the Law of Diminishing Returns no longer applies.  The process repeats endlessly with nothing learned.  Don't pretend that this has not happened to you.

This Law applies to these select foods and drinks without fail:

HOT DOGS
DONUTS
COFFEE
CHEESY POTATOES (ASK MY BROTHER ABOUT THIS ONE)
EGG NOG
SWEDISH MEATBALLS
DESSERTS ONLY FOUND AT FAMILY REUNIONS USUALLY MADE BY A GREAT AUNT YOU ONLY SEE ONCE A YEAR
CREAM SODA


The inverse of this law applies to these foods:

PIZZA
GARLIC BREAD
HOT WINGS
LASAGNA
CHICKEN
CHOCOLATE CHIP COOKIES
BROWNIES
FRENCH FRIES
BEER


Do you have any foods to add to these lists?

Independence Day Quotes

As I get older, I have a more profound appreciation for history.  We learn the nuts and bolts, all of the straightforward facts and figures in grade school.  We know the important dates, places and persons for the most part.  Its the finer more intricate stories and events that don't get the publicity I find more appealing and enlightening now that I have some years behind me for perspective.

The Age of Enlightenment was running at full steam as America was solidifying its identify in colonial America. I liken the term "enlightenment" to having a larger perspective in your world view.  The Founding Fathers certainly had that trait in abundance. Jefferson was a polymath; fluent in 5 languages and had a deep interest in philosophy, science and architecture. He was the foreign minister to France and Secretary of State before becoming President. He kept detailed weather records and invented some of the mechanisms he incorporated into his house on Monticello.

John Adams isn't as celebrated at Jefferson but was his equal in many ways. He became a lawyer as a young age. He was a keep observer of the world and utilized his observations in formulating his social views.  He drafted Massachusetts state constitution himself and worked with Jefferson in the formation of the government of the young United States. They both began a correspondence that last almost 15 years and more than 150 letters. If you have the chance, read some of these letters.  They were eerily prophetic on the future of the country. 

I leave you with some quotes from my two favorite Founding Fathers on this Independence Day: Enjoy and remember the people who came before us both in American history and in the recent past both domestic and abroad.

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”.
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

“I always consider the settlement of America with reverence and wonder, as the opening of a grand scene and design in providence, for the illumination of the ignorant and the emancipation of the slavish part of mankind all over the earth.
-John Adams (1735-1826)

“Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean of the characters and conduct of their rulers.
-John Adams (1735-1826)

“The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.”
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)


“I am well aware of the toil and blood and treasure it will cost us to maintain this declaration, and support and defend these states. Yet through all the gloom I see the rays of ravishing light and glory. I can see that the end is worth all the means. This is our day of deliverance.”
-John Adams (1735-1826)


“Equal and exact justice to all men — freedom of religion, freedom of the press, freedom of person under the protection of the habeas corpus; and trial by juries impartially selected, these principles form the bright constellation which has gone before us.”
-Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

25 Year Ago: 104 Degree Heat in Cleveland!

I remember the hot and dry summer of 1988 vividly. My lawn mowing business took a HUGE hit. After mowing lawn at a record pace in April and May, everything came to a stand still by June and never really recovered until September. By then, it was too late to re coop the losses.

That was also my first time experiencing 100+ degree heat. Sure, it was a "dry heat". But 100 degrees is 100 degrees! Today marks the 25th anniversary of the HOTTEST DAY IN CLEVELAND HISTORY when we reached 104 degrees that late afternoon on the 25th of June.

What is interesting about June of 1988 was not only the all-time recording setting heat which we all remember but the cold nights!

First, we set 4 record highs that month leading up to the 104 on the 25th...

Check this out: We had 7 nights in the 40s. The 2 nights in the 40s at the end of the month were RECORD LOWS!

The drought had a lot to do with this. Humidity levels that summer were low so large variations from day to night were more common.

Its an interesting case study. When you look at the occurrences of 100 degree heat in June---only two other times (1944 and 1934)--they featured no instance of record low temperatures! 

This really shows the severity of the drought during the summer of 1988.

Why is this early summer pattern different than 2012? More 90s in store?

In March at The Ohio State Weather Symposium, I  presented a paper on the conditions that preceded the Drought of 2012 and how those conditions set the stage for the summer of 2012. You can scroll through my POWERPOINT here. Its loaded with graphics that give a chronology leading up to last summer.

Last summer and the summers before it (2011 and 2010) are still fresh in everyone's mind. All three were above normal. Each one featured different degrees of heat. 2010 & 2011 had consistent heat. Last summer featured about 3 solid weeks of oppressive heat in late June and early July with 28 days in the 90s by mid September.  So its nature to think that this summer will be just as hot right? Not necessarily.  Why is this summer setting up to be different than last summer?  The answer lies partially in the amount and location of the spring rains.

Take a look at the Long Term Drought Indicator. This map blends a bunch of variables to include soil moisture, short term and long term precipitation, ground water and reservoir water levels. Last year's indicator for late June is on the left; this year is on the right.

The corn belt was in serious trouble last year with dry conditions that carried over from the winter before (SEE MY POWER POINT) while this year, above normal spring rains across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and parts of Missouri are in great shape. Spring heat was absent so evaporation of soil moisture didn't occur as rapidly as it did in 2012. Look at the temperatures from March through May in 2012 and this year: POLAR OPPOSITES!

Evaporation was lower, rainfall in spring was above normal. The above normal rainfall for much of June this year has stayed above normal versus last June.

So what does ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAIN, COOLER SPRING TEMPS AND HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE MEAN for our summer pattern? Last summer, the central US drought feed the heat which strengthened the ridge of high pressure which worsened the drought....etc. It was a huge drought/heat feedback loop with no end in sight.

This year, with WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN SPRING AND EARLY JUNE along with other pattern changes globally, the chances for a huge heat dome to develop in the center of the US and across Ohio are considerably smaller than last summer. The wet ground will reduce the propensity for the heat dome to develop. So far, the core of the heat has stayed out west with only small bursts of 90 degree heat across Ohio so far.

Remember that almost 50% of our 90 degree days occur in July so we have a lot of summer left.

More than half of the summers since 1980 have had less than 10 days above 90.

What's the bottom line?

1. This summer is starting out much different than the summer of 2012. 

2. The soil conditions and accumulative rainfall in the central US and across Ohio are far better.

3. They favor more frequent breaks from the 90 degree heat into the first 10 days of July. As long as we continue with frequent rainfall, this pattern could stick around longer. We'll watch carefully as we head into 4th of July week and beyond!