Remnants of Hurricane Ike Revisited

I'm a few days late in publishing this but it's worth a look back anyway. On September 14, 2008, the remains of Hurricane Ike (then a tropical depression at best) moved through the mid west and the Great Lakes ultimately falling a part in southern Canada.

I remember distinctly having to cut up several trees that fell in my backyard only to find that they all had Poison Oak growing throughout. Needless to say, the next two weeks were very uncomfortable.

Two distinct elements were present that allowed Ike to not only hold together but move more than a thousand miles inland. A strong high pressure cell was parked off of the east coast. A strong mid-latitude cold front was sliding across the central of the US. Both acted as a funnel focusing the storm north and east. The upper level pattern was perfectly aligned to drive the surface pattern.

500 mB heights from September 8th to September 15th

Wind gusts across northern Ohio topped out at 71 mph in northern Lorain County.

Rainfall amounts across northern Ohio were very high.

Tropical storms have impacted Ohio before. Remember Hurricane Katrina in 2005? How about Hugo back in 1989?  Here are a few notable storms NOT including Hurricane Sandy as it deserves its own post which you can read HERE.

Irene is history. Now another tropical system brewing

For all of the talk concerning Irene being blown out of proportion, areas from New Jersey to New England are still under water. Hundreds of thousands of people are still without power.  The bottom line: Never underestimate hurricanes.

We are entering the peak hurricane season

All eyes are on the eastern Atlantic where another tropical system is in its infancy.

The question remains whether or not this "soon to be" hurricane (by Thursday) will take a similar track to Irene.

Here are several different projections: You can see the "blob" in the center by Sunday

Here is the projection by NEXT THURSDAY (10 days away). The projections take the hurricane north and away from land next week.

So if you are heading to Disney over the next several weeks, watch the tropics. Its going to get real bumpy.

Hurricane Projections Getting Interesting

So far this year, hurricane season has been very quiet. A few storms developed in the central Atlantic. Those storms didn't last long.  But notice the storm track. The steering currents have curved each storm to the northeast.

The focus of attention in the weeks ahead will be over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. While no storm (as of this writing--August 18th) has developed yet, all of the computer projections show rapid development of one area of storms into a formidable hurricane late next week

We look at 3 distinct projections.  The GFS model, the Canadian model and the European Model.

The GFS (American) Model by next Saturday the 28th show a hurricane near Florida

The Canadian Model shows the same hurricane near the Carolina coast

The European Model shows it near Florida

Whether or not this actual verifies remains to be seen. The bottom line is that the computer are seeing the tropics becoming very active very soon and very fast. Based on a multitude of factors, I believe that the US will be hit with a hurricane at some point this season. Stay tuned!

First Tropical System of 2011

Tropical Storm Arlene is still hanging around in the western Gulf of Mexico drifting into central Mexico.

Forecast continues to drive this west over the next several days

The National Hurricane Center concurs

Since the water temperatures are above normal, we can expect more tropical storms in the weeks ahead

The Atlantic is very quiet due to dust from Africa spreading west

Movement on any tropical waves will be westward.  Unless a storm develops in the Gulf, the Caribbean storms should stay away from the US

We are still looking at an above normal year of tropical storms.  If you are vacationing along the east coast or Florida, your chances of being affected by a tropical storm/Hurricane this year is increasing.

A dry June and the start of hurricane season

Just when out weather is starting to dry out after more than 14 inches or rain since April 1st, the start of hurricane season is now taking center stage with the talk of an above year for tropical storms and hurricanes. 


Why the increase this year?

Let look at the total amount of available moisture in the atmosphere in the tropics courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters at the wunderground.com.

Now take a look at the water temperatures in the same spots compared to the averages and last year. Notice the warm pockets in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern US coast. Last year, most of the warmth was located in the central Atlantic.  This year, its all over the place. Click on each image to make it larger.

Last year in late May

Late this May

The latest satellite image shows clusters of storms in these spots as of May 31st.  So look for the first tropical storms to develop in these spots in June and July.

The major hurricanes that make landfall in the US originate in the locations that are the warmest this year. We will need to watch these areas VERY carefully in the months ahead.

La Nina, the temporary cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean is weakening to neutral conditions this summer and early fall.  This allows the winds aloft to weaken allowing tropical storms to develop further without being sheared apart. 

These factors are why the National Hurricane Center is calling for an active hurricane season. Here is their link with the details

One other thing to remember in the next several years:

We are in a period of higher hurricane activity mostly due to the Atlantic Ocean entering a "warm mode" in the mid 1990s.  These warm modes typically last 25-35 years.  We can trace these warm/cold modes back into the 1800s.  These warm modes are directly related to higher hurricane activity.  We can expect a greater than normal number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US in these "warm modes".  This also increases the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in New England. This is a REAL threat; one that's been a reality in the past and one--according to many forecasters-- will likely occur in the next 5 to 10 years.

If you vacation along the east coast in late August or early September, stay updated on the tropics. The right side of the following graph might be our reality in the future.

3 HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC

CHECK OUT THIS HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE OF HURRICANES KARL, IGOR AND JULIA TAKEN ON SEPTEMBER 16TH.  CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR THE COMPLETE IMAGE FOR ACTUAL SIZE.

Hurricane Katrina - 5 Years Ago

Five years goes by very fast even when one of the most devastating natural disasters is concerned.  It was on that Sunday back in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina made landfall over New Orleans. It took a similar track to Hurricane Camille took back in 1969 over New Orleans.  This time, the damage was far more significant; the cleanup and rebuilding continues to this day.

Katrina made landfall over the Florida Keys days before as a tropical storm.

It weakened over Florida and quickly redeveloped into a major hurricane mainly due to the Loop Current, a current of warm water between the Yukatan Peninsula and Cuba.  The same current that was responsible for the steering of the 2010 Oil Spill.  The red color shows the Loop Current with Katrina's track over the top.

Katrina as a major hurricane shortly after intensifying in The Loop Current

Katrina's track from the Florida Keys to its New Orleans landfall is shown in this satellite photo blending several images with the track superimposed.

Katrina was a Category 5 shortly before landfall.  It weakened to a strong Category 3 as it made landfall with at least 80% of the city experiencing Category 1 or 2 level sustained winds. New Orleans was hit with winds of 125 miles per hour.  Below is a closeup high resolution satellite photo of the eye before landfall.

The eye over New Orleans

This graphic shows the level of the city compared to the level of the Gulf of Mexico.  You can understand  why 80% of the city was under water.

It proceeded inland with winds rapidly decreasing as shown below.

Hurricane Katrina's track headed north through Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio as a depression with heavy rains.

The total rainfall from Katrina was incredible across the south. 8 to 10 inches of rain fell across the eastern half of the state with a local report of 15 inches near the Mississippi border.  Amounts of 1 to 2 inches for us in Cleveland were common several days later.

The rainfall swath was similar to the rainfall areas created by the track of Hurricane Camille in 1969.

High winds were reported as far north as Detroit and Cleveland  of over 50 miles per hour.