How Do You Define a "Harsh Winter"?

HOW DO YOU DEFINE A "HARSH WINTER?"

No question typifies weather subjectivity and story telling more than this one.  Ask this question and you'll get a different answer virtually every time. Here are some of responses via Twitter when I asked this question recently.  I'll analyze each one with data from Cleveland to see how often each weather occurs.  Responses are abbreviated.

TWITTER (X) RESPONSES AND ANALYSIS:    

1) Above average snow & below average temps

First, here is snowfall vs normal for each winter since 1960-61 using a running average.

Now winter temperatures vs average over the same time frame.  Again, we use a 10 year running average.

The only winters that fit each component (temps and snowfall) are:

1962-63, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1981-82, 1983-84, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2008-09, 2013-14 and 2014-15

2) Sustainable snow cover into April

Most Aprils rarely has sustainable snow on the ground.  Here are the total days with 1"+ snow cover for each winter since the late 1930s.  Most year its only one day. Only 6 winters had 3 or more days in April in the last 40 years.

Expanding snow cover days into March and April, we find 21 of the last 64 years with 10 days or more with snow cover between March 1 and April 15:

3) Less than 10 days without sunshine

Hard to quantify due to data limitations.

4) Extreme cold with no breaks

"Extreme cold" is arbitrary. So we'll go with total days with temperatures under 20 degrees.

5)  DJF - 45 days or more below freezing for highs AND Total snowfall 50"+

Nice graph showing the 45 days at/under freezing. Red box indicates years with total snowfall 50"+

Most recently:  2014-15, 2013-14, 2010-11, 2002-03, 2000-01, 1995-96, 1984-85, 1983-84, 1980-81

6) Below zero temps

Not many in recent years. Only 4 in 2017-18.  The two back-to-back super cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 saw 23 combined.

7) Temps consistently below 32

Winters since 1969-70 where we had more than 14 straight days at/under 32 degrees. Date shows when the streak ended.

8) More than 4 weeks with more than 6" of snow on ground

Only 6 winters had more than 28 days with at least 6" snow over:

1962-63, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, 2008-09, 2009-10

9) DJF - half of days with snow cover

Most recently, these winters:

2014-15, 2013-14, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2004-05, 2002-03

1995-96, 1993-94, 1985-86, 1984-83, 1983-84, 1981-80

1980-81, 1978-79, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1967-68, 1963-67

1962-63, 1960-61

10)  Snow totals above normal

Filtering out the winters with at least 8" snow above normal we get these winters:

11)  Wind chills under -10

My nice chart I update each year denoting the total hours where we reach below zero wind chills. I noted the years in red where chills dropped under -10.  Last winter it occurred frequently around the holidays. In fact it was coldest period (using wind chill) since January 1994. Prior to last winter, the winter of 2012-22, 2018-19 and 2017-18 were the most recent winter with chills under -10.

The winter of 2008-09, 2006-07 and 2000-01 

12)  High temps under 20 degrees for 30% of the winter

Has never happened

13)  20 days with single digit temps & Frequent 10" snows

The only winters with ONE DAY 10" snowfalls are:

How about TWO DAY 10" snowfall?  That has happened 57 times.  Here are the occurrences in the last 50 winters:

How about 2 day 10" snowfalls AND 20 days with single digit temperatures in the same winter?

14)  5 snowfall events greater than 6"

Hard to believe but the most in one year (since 1960) is 6 and that happened in 2004-05.  Here is the list showing all winters with at least two.

15)  Below 10 degrees for two weeks

Since 1960, we've only had TWO WINTERS where we had more than 10 straight days with overnight lows at/under 10 degrees.  

16)  Consecutive days with at least 1" of snow cover

Last year we had only 15 days with at least an inch of snow cover. Second lowest since 1960-61. 

The top ten winters with snow cover since 1960-61:

17  Consecutive days under 40

Here is the list showing the top 15 winter and the date when the consecutive streak ended.

So you can see that everyone's definition of a harsh winter is different.  By checking history, many of these listed above don't occur as frequently as we would believe. There is definitely some availability bias here. That is we tend to create--in this case--a weather narrative using the most noticeable, seemly important information we have at our disposal. Yet in reality, that information can be incomplete. The the lack of super cold and snowy winters in recent years has seemed to artificially "enhance" our memories of what a rough winter used to be.  As is often the case, what we remember of winter weather from yesteryear gets blurred and sometimes exaggerated over time. If we experienced an historic weather events firsthand those indelible marks, can inflate--perhaps due to availability bias or recency bias (more recent events tend to be overemphasized)--what might have been a more benign event.

Either way, our feelings on winter are highly subjective and always filled with emotion unlike any other season. Let's see if winter 2023-24 conditions make these lists!

How Does The Christmas 2022 Blizzard Compared to the January 1978 Blizzard?

Just last week we remembered the Blizzard of 1978 or the White Hurricane as it would be known as after the fact. Ohio turnpike was shutdown gate to gate.  Twenty foot high snowdrifts. Wind gusts above 80 mph in spots across Ohio and beyond.  If you lived during the storm, the memories will live forever.

A blizzard is defined as three hours of sustained winds of 35+ mph, 1/4 mi or lower visibility due to blowing and/or falling snow.  The last condition is key as you don't need falling snow for a blizzard to occur.  Recently the Blizzard of Christmas 2022 created conditions that in some respects rival the '78 blizzard.  Below is a comparison between the initial 12 hour period for each blizzard. The data includes precipitation type, temperature, wind chill, wind direction, speed and gusts followed by air pressure from Cleveland Hopkins Airport:

A few elements stand out here.  You'll notice the wind chill values of the 1978 storm are greatly reduced compared to what many publications sited years ago. The wind chill calculation changed in 2001 to reflect new science on the subject of heat loss on the body.  Earlier estimates put the wind chill at under -60° but in reality, the chills probably bottomed out at -30°,  maybe -40° with the higher gusts with the new formula.  Other notable findings from the observations above:

* The temperature drop during the December 2022 storm was greater (42° to 0° in 8 hours).  The 1978 storm had a sharper drop. 43° to 9° in 5 hours.

* 2022 storm created wind gusts nearing 50 mph at Hopkins with some reports above 60 mph once the temperatures dropped into the single digits.  These wind gusts (50+ mph) took roughly 5-7 hours to reach after peak temperatures. The 1978 storm had gusts reaching 70+ within 3 hours of peak temperatures. 

* Official wind chill values were LOWER during the 2002 storm.

* 1978 storm was far deeper with lowest air pressure at 958 mB vs 993.0 mB with the 2022 storm.

* Snow depth was much deeper in 1978.  16" before the storm versus no snow on the ground at the start of the 2022 storm.

What about the conditions after the initial 12 hours?  Here are the hourly observations for each storm over the next 48 hours. 2022 storm on left.  1978 storm on right. Color coding is identical to the image above.

Here are some notable findings in these 48 hours

2022 storm:

* Temperatures remained below zero for another 12 hours and under 10 degrees for another 19 hours.

* Sustained wind speeds stayed at 30 mph for 12 hours with gusts near 40 mph for 24 hours.

* Wind chills remained at under -20° for 24 another hours.

The progression of the arctic cold was fast and widespread. After 7 days the extreme cold had faded.

7 day temperatures vs normal during and following blizzard

1978 storm:

* Temperatures never dropped below zero; remained below 10 degrees for only 9 hours

* Sustained winds were similar to the 2022 storm (30 mph for 12 hours) with 40+ gusts 

*  Wind chills stayed between -5° and -15° as temps stayed between 5° and 15° degrees

The cold following the '78 blizzard was just as harsh and quick but it lingered much longer.

7 day temperatures vs normal during and following Blizzard

The surface features with both storms look very similar.

January 1978 Blizzard

December 2022 Blizzard

Psychology tells us that our experiences especially during extreme events tend to leave a stronger mark in our mind more than more benign events.  The January 2022 blizzard was one of those events.  The blizzard around Christmas 2022 was also a memorable one--certainly not the worst in northern Ohio history but it's on the list (maybe top 5)--and should be remembered in the same breath as the '78 storm.

40th Anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978

When you ask people about historical winter weather across northern Ohio, The Blizzard of 1978 is at the top of the list. Here is a news clip from WJW FOX 8 from that evening, January 26, 1978. 

The Ohio Turnpike was completely shut down.  The only time in its history!

What most people don't remember is that we had more than 20" of snow on the ground BEFORE the 25/26th BLIZZARD. 

*  We had TWO big storms earlier in the month. 

*  The first blizzard hit on the 8th and 9th.  9" of snow fell between the 8th and the 9th. Wind gusts were near 50 mph

*  We had a 10 day break then 12" of additional snow fell between the 19th and the 21st (storm number two) just five days BEFORE the Great Blizzard.

*  Only 8" of snow fell in Cleveland, 5" in Akron, 14" in Mansfield. 

The National Weather Service defines a blizzard NOT WITH SNOWFALL but with sustained winds of at least 35+ mph for at least 3 straight hours with 1/4 mi visibility or lower. Again, heavy snow storms are not necessarily blizzards

What caused the problems wasn't the new snow but the near hurricane force winds which gusted above 60 mph for almost a day (80+ mph gusts reported in many areas. 100+ mph near Lake Erie). These winds blew the snow already on the ground from the previous snows creating the 20+ snow drifts across the state.

In fact, the snow from the Great Blizzard was nowhere near the top 50 snowiest 2 day storms on record. 

For historical perspective, 18 of the top 50 snowiest 2 day periods since 1940 occurred between 2000 and 2009.  

Snowfall Forecast Communication: We Need to do Better

I've written variations of this post many times over the last 5 or so years and it bears repeating. I rarely post snowfall maps/computer model projections further out than 2-3 days on social media platforms. Why?  Look at these long range computer model projections starting Monday--4 days prior--for the snow event Friday and Saturday, January 12 and 13th.

Sunday Evening 1/7 (Model #1. I forgot to save Model #2 for comparison)

Monday Morning 1/8 (Model #1 vs #2)

Monday Evening 1/8 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Tuesday Evening 1/9 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Wednesday Evening 1/10 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)

Look at the HUGE difference between each model.

Many people posted these images online and even showed them on the air. In most instances these were shown to convey the fact that we had a long way to go before an official forecast could be made with a high degree of certainty. Uncertainty was being conveyed. It has the best of intentions. I get it. I've done it. Makes sense, right?

Except in the real world, most humans rarely interpret this type of information--data--through a rational filter. Data makes us feel conflicted. We, whether we like it or not, overly simplify complex ideas. Computer model projections are a prime example. That's how we're wired. It's well documented with behavioral scientists.

We look at the numbers, pick one out--say 20" of snowfall--react impulsively to it without historical perspective (by the way that's never happened in 24 hours from a general snow event since record keeping began) or context and before you know it, hysteria ensues. We see it on social media every time. Unfortunately social media reactions spread at an exponential rate devolving as the comment thread lengthens. Before you know it, the benign, educational intent of the snowfall uncertainty post is lost. It involuntarily morphs into a totally different story that spreads like wildfire changing with every re tweet and re post. The old game where you sit in a circle an say a sentence to the person to your right and that person to their right applies here. When the message comes back around to the beginning, it's changed entirely. Do you see the problem?

All of us meteorologists here at WJW FOX 8 always choose to wait until we have a high degree of certainty before we post any snowfall numbers usually in some sort of range. The aim is to eliminate what I just described in the paragraph above. This was my post Thursday morning, roughly 36 hours before the event begins. (Note: Andre Bernier, our evening meteorologist had a more basic snowfall map the night before not shown here)

How do we combat our hard wired human nature? The answer is simple:  We don't. WE QUALITY CONTROL OUR INFORMATION!

Psychology plays a huge role in weather forecasts. As a meteorologist who reaches hundreds of thousands of people each morning on the top rated morning show in Cleveland, Ohio, I owe it to each viewer to quality control what I say and what I create visually to accompany it. The psychological element--how the viewer perceives what we say--is a critical weather cast element that is often overlooked by on air meteorologists. The words/numbers that we say/post on the air and online can be more powerful than the weather itself.  In this age of posts solely created for clicks with the hopes of a long, viral lifespan, quality is too often sacrificed. That's fine for a cute picture or a clever, humorous meme but when a major weather event is eminent over a large population area, high quality information created for the masses is of the utmost importance.


Recently the National Weather Service has implemented a program in the works for several years that streamlines their winter season watches, advisories and warnings in an effort to simplify the forecast message for the general public. The great folks at the NWS Office in Cleveland recently hosted a seminar for media personnel highlighting these changes. The information was invaluable.

As meteorologist we always need to remember the psychology behind what we do. As communicators of science (data) need to put ourselves in the minds of the public and ask: "How is the viewer going to interpret what I say?" So when I create a snowfall forecast range map, I take into account how people react to EACH WORD knowing that many will perceive these range to fit their location.

We must remember:

*  Public perception is very powerful

*  We need to be better communicators of information

*  Choice of words is of the utmost importance in conveying severity of the weather

*  Mass media is for the masses. Risk is personal to the public. Yet people want personal forecasts. Huge conundrum.

* Human beings dislike uncertainty.

*  Too much emphasis on uncertainty breeds confusion, inaction and ultimately apathy when the next snow or weather event of importance happens.  Basic psychology here.  We need to find a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and sticking to a forecast geared to the general public without causing social media unrest

5 Distinct Snow Makers This Week

Coldest air of the season Friday and Saturday

Snowfall forecast by Thursday early afternoon

Early Summer El Nino Update

More geeky weather talk ahead >>>

The newest updated from the MEI (Multivariate Index) website run by Klaus Wolter shows a significant increase over the last month of +0.61 to +1.57 as of April/May which rates the El Nino in the strong category using a ranking method.  If we look at the top April/May rankings according to Mr. Wolter then then take away the El Nino events that were weakening as of April/May, we are left with the 5 years below. ALL OF THESE YEARS STAYED AT EL NINO LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

One important note: Only 1998, 1993, 1992, 1987 and 1983 had HIGHER MEI levels in April/May. 1987 was a only building El Nino. The rest were fading or close to it.

The El Nino is very apparent in the current sea surface temperature anomaly map in the last week of May.

The 2014 El Nino (although not official using the ONI) was considered weak by many meteorologists including myself.  If you assume a weak El Nino for a time last year, this year's much stronger event would be a 2nd year El Nino. Expanding the possible El Nino matches using the MEI TIME SERIES for "double El Nino events" we found two such events:  Late 1991 through 1993 and 1986/87.  A 2nd year El Nino has the advantage of an ocean already primed from the previous one.

It's not an exact match but comparing these two years to 2014-15 gives us an idea of a possible El Nino outcome.  Remember that this year's El Nino is developing much earlier. Most El Nino's develop in late summer and fall.

By examining the MEI, assuming a building El Nino, a double El Nino event (last year was weak) and a very high April/May MEI, a good match so far is the 1986-87 event.

What were the bi-monthly overlapping sea surface temperature anomalies starting in April through the end of 1987?  Notice the cooler water in the western Pacific near Australia which is necessary for the development of a strong El Nino according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Watch how the lower temperature areas warm by the end of the year (lower two maps below) and the warmest regions start to cool a bit as the El Nino started to fade by year's end.

How about this year's event?  The water off the coast of Australia (circled in red) is starting to cool comparing April 1st to may 27th but not at the level of the 1986-87 event...yet.

This El Nino continues to strengthen much earlier than other El Ninos. We continue to watch the water temperatures in the western Pacific near Australia as they cool.  How cool will they get? Will the El Nino peak in late Fall then taper off?

Models are strongly hinting at this...

Our summer outlook took much of this into account. Check it out here on my weather blog post from early May. 

BIGGER QUESTION, how will this El Nino impact winter?  Too early to call. More on this in August!