The BIG Winter Recap - Part II - Northern Ohio (Summer Thoughts)

The last "cold" morning in Ashtabula this winter

The strongest El Nino since 1997-98 and a stable arctic tempered the cold of the last two winters. Temperatures across northern Ohio were well above normal with below normal snowfall similar to the winters of 2011-12, 2001-02, 1997-98 and 1982-83. Two of those three were strong El Nino winters.  Our outlook last fall was for above normal temperatures and slightly below normal snowfall.

Above normal temperatures were more extensive across the US. According to the NCDC, global ocean temperatures were at record levels.  (See PART I of my winter recap for other drivers)

Given the panhandle storm track forecast back in September/October, we were very confident that we would get hit with at least ONE big general snowfall which would boost snow totals into the 50-55 inch range. Overall, the heavy snowfalls stayed south and east of northern Ohio which kept our totals even lower. Those big snows came VERY close to northern Ohio!

BIG SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...VERY CLOSE TO CLEVELAND & AKRON

How does this winter compare to the last two cold winters? How does this compare to the similar winter of 2011-12?  Here are the final tallies.  The same metrics used in last winter's winter recap were used this year to keep everything consistent.

Everyone thought winter was over until our early April snowfall. The April snowfall was almost 24% of the entire winter total; second highest ever!

 Lake Erie Ice Cover reached a peak of 75% for a few days in mid February.

 That's a bit misleading as the peak ice cover went from 3% to 79% in 3 days! In 11 days, it dropped to ZERO in a week and a half.  GRAPH BELOW

Ice cover was thicker and more widespread for much longer last winter.  For comparison, last year it took 28 days to reach 94% and it stayed above 90% for 47 days. Whereas in the winter of 2011-12 (similar to this winter--see above), ice cover reached 13%, only 6 days above 10%.  

Ice cover during the last big El Nino back in 1997-98 was even LOWER than this year. A whopping 8.4% maximum!

Will the leftover winter El Nino play a role in our summer temperatures and precipitation?  Will El Nino continue to weaken?  If so, how will this effect the summer and upcoming autumn? Will severe weather occur more frequently?  Summer Outlook coming up in a few days!  Check out fox8.com 

Mindset Behind My Snowfall Forecasts

Sandusky, Ohio snow on February 25, 2016.  Photo courtesy: Bryan Edwards (Twitter)

Snowfall forecasts are very difficult animals both in the meteorology that's used to create them and the public's perception of the numbers you display.

Tuesday morning, I posted a general low resolution hand drawn preliminary forecast for Thursday's snowfall. 

Preliminary Thursday Snow Forecast Issued Tuesday Morning

Yet, many people on social media interpreted this preliminary forecast too literally. Several on Twitter freaked out when they saw Lorain close to the 3-5" range contour.  I told them it probably didn't matter since its--A RANGE!  Sure, Lorain was closer to the potentially heavier snowfall but the overall difference using the range for Lorain was small, probably an inch or two. Yet many on social media see it differently. 

Yesterday morning (Wednesday), I adjusted the area of heavier snow further west but KEPT THE RANGES THE SAME. Once again, people on social media interpreted this as a huge alteration in the snowfall forecast to which I replied, "Use the ranges NOT absolute numbers".  In reality, the overall forecast within the confines of our ranges remained the pretty much the same aside from shifting the heavier amounts west a bit. Yet the perception by the some was that Lorain went from five inches to one inch.  

Most meteorologists on television, the public sector (National Weather Service) and in private industry use snowfall ranges in their forecasts. This works best because it takes into account the variance in movement and intensity of the many individual bands of snowfall within snowfall systems. The problem for the meteorologist is that most people want A SPECIFIC SNOWFALL NUMBER for their backyard.  Yet many people see a snowfall forecast during the morning newscast and believe that this holds for the entire day. Nothing is further from the truth. These forecasts are not one-and-done. They evolve throughout the day as the event unfolds. Forecasts change as the conditions change. People see individual snowfall amounts on their phone apps and believe these over human derived forecasts. They want absolute specifics yet more often than not, one snowfall amount number for any location will not work.

For example, here was my official snowfall forecast issued Thursday morning at 4am for the entire day using ranges:

One specific (WRF 4km) high resolution computer model early in the morning cranked out these amounts for Thursday's snowfall.  While these were in line with our official snowfall forecast above, people fixated on some of the individual numbers and were confused. 

How do we combat this confusion on social and broadcast media? Good question. 

My soft policy is that I rarely post computer model snowfall output unless we are inside 24 hours before a snowfall event. If my intention is to highlight the general outlook for the week ahead, I will post snowfall accumulations without numbers.  A quality controlled "hand drawn" map is another option. My ultimate goal is to present information that describes the weather without creating confusion.  

Situations like this reminds me of the psychology behind the weather forecast. Most people want exactness in there forecasts. Remember that we are all hard wired to simplify uncertainty. So when a snowfall forecast range is posted on a map, people immediately find a number within that range that best fits. I'd like to say that I make a forecast with a cold, rational eye but I don't. I take into account how people with react to EACH WORD knowing that many people with perceive selective elements to fit their location.  I learned that real quick after my first major lake effect event twenty years ago.

If I could make a poster with bullet points for meteorologists, it would list these five at the top

*  Public perception is very powerful

*  We need to be better communicators of information

*  Choice of words is of the utmost importance in conveying severity of the weather

*  Risk is personal (public).  Mass media is for the masses. Yet people want personal forecasts. Huge conundrum.

*  Too much emphasis on uncertainty breeds confusion, inaction and ultimately apathy when the next snow or weather event or importance happens. This is basic psychology that's been well documented over the years. We need to find a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and sticking to a forecast.

5 Distinct Snow Makers This Week

Coldest air of the season Friday and Saturday

Snowfall forecast by Thursday early afternoon

2016 Nor'easter Snow Totals

Winter Pattern Taking Shape

Back in September, I strongly speculated on the possible winter pattern. This was my initial outlook given the initial conditions and projections FOR DECEMBER back in September.  In reality, the southern jet stream hadn't established itself as a winter storm driver.

The position of the warmth was too far west for December.  The arctic air over the North Pole was very stable. The ridge was powerful across the east. Heavy rain and severe storms/deadly tornadoes during the month were common around Christmas.

On December 6th, I opined using videos (bottom half of the post at this link) showing the stronger position and intensity of the southern jet stream in January.

Our final winter outlook in late October echoed this southern panhandle storm track for the second half of winter

The extended models are this southern storm track (panhandle lows) as the dominant track through much of February.  Here are the snapshots on six periods of seven days each ending during the third week of February.

Most of the teleconnections (NAO, AO and PNA--EPO bouncing back a bit) showing troughiness in the east overall.

All of these factors seem to be the real deal which will lead to colder temperatures and higher chances of panhandle low type systems to interact with colder air leading to an eastward push of snow!

Lake Erie ice cover is nearly non-existent. Last year (before the record setting cold developed) ice cover was only 5% through the first 8 days of January. The current water temperature is still at 40 degrees.  The average water temperature is 35 on the 8th. Any cold outbreak like what we will see next week will aid in dropping the water temperature versus adding lake ice outside of the western basin where the water depth is shallow. Bottom line, lake effect snow is more possible January through March than in past years.

Let's Clear Up A Few Things...

Many wonder why I write so much about the psychology of weather. If you read the comments on most of my posts over the last several weeks you'll see why: They believe what they want to believe. They use social media as a conduit to say whatever impulsive thought they want without recourse. Perception is the ultimate reality.

I use social media and my blog to show why weather events occur the way they do. I post stats and records about past weather to show some perspective in the hope that this will help viewers of our station and the general reader. Often times it just doesn't work...much to my dismay.

So let's clear up a few things. Rather than use science to explain the why we do what we do, I'm using straight forward bullet points. Let's wipe the slate clean and start out fresh and new as we approach the end of the year.

*******************

1) It WILL snow at some point. It always does. And no, I don't like snow.

2) The warm weather is playing with our minds.  Our weather perceptions (cognitive biases if you will) are very strong.  We are not immune.  We are all human.  Recognition of these preconceived notions is the first step in an objective understanding the weather and the science that governs it.

2a)  We hate forecast uncertainty. Here's why LINK

3) Contrary to what you might believe, weather forecasts are more accurate than they were 15 years ago.  According to this study, "the accuracy of the 8-10 day forecast today are similar to a 5-7 day forecast 15 years ago. Hurricane accuracy is greatly improved since Hurricane Katrina LINK.

4) Our morning show here at FOX 8 is on for 6 hours. The weather forecast between 4 and 10am can change as the conditions change. Forecasts are not frozen in time during each newscast.  The weather doesn't stop for television.

5) The decision to break into a popular TV show or sporting event with a weather update is NOT an impulsive one. Stations have different philosophies on when to break into programming. I can't speak for the others. However, my station WJW-FOX 8 only breaks during a tornado warning or a significant winter weather event (widespread, blizzard-like snow). If you send a comment complaining about our stringent guidelines, you obviously care more about football than being warned when a tornado warning is issued.

6) Contrary to many weather maps on the air, the atmosphere is three dimensional and ever changing. Imagine the atmosphere (especially during sleet, freezing rain events) like layers of a wedding cake.  Each layer of icing represents the different layers of air at different temperatures with different types of precipitation.

Note: The wedding cake analogy is mine and mine alone. I invented it.

7) Moon or sun halos are not uncommon. They are beautiful sights caused by the bending, splitting and reflecting of sunlight through ice crystal clouds.  We have hundreds of photos.

8) I'm not a fan of phone weather apps that promise super-local weather forecasts for your backyard. They are like unicorns.  They don't exist.  Most are computer generated data approximated based on your location via GPS.  I trust a human generated forecast (via NWS or your local tv station) every day of the week.

9) Jet contrails are not chem-trails.  They, like, unicorns don't exist.  I don't like conspiracy theories.

10) I have no control of weather, news or school closing promos that run 15 times per hour. The promotions department is on the first floor.

11) These above normal December temperatures were mentioned in a blog post on my weather blog in early September and again in our FOX 8 winter weather outlook. Yes, pre-Christmas warmth has happened before.  Remember 1982?

12) Simply because the weather has been warm or cold, wet or dry doesn't confirm or deny climate change in any form. I'm an operational meteorologist who happens to be on television.  Keep your subjectivity or bias to yourself.  So please don't send me anecdotal evidence confirming your preconceived notions.  See number 2 above for the reasons why.

13) We forget that last December was above normal with no snow for only the 3rd time in 140 years.  Christmas week in 2014 was the 8th warmest on record in northern Ohio.

14) This warmth is driven by BOTH El Nino and a strong Polar Vortex not just El Nino. Remember the Polar Vortex from last winter?  Yes, it's real (LINK)

15) Storm systems like what we are seeing currently which develop over Texas and move northeast--termed "Panhandle Hooks"--are more common in El Ninos.  Wet snows are more common from Texas through the mid-Atlantic in these years.

16) Contrary to what we believe, you cannot use one or two days or a weeks worth of weather as a predictor or the season ahead. In other words, a warm or cold December is not an indicator of the spring or summer ahead. The drivers of winter aren't necessarily the drivers of spring and summer.  It's not an apples to apples comparison.  (Remember December 2014 was warmer than normal.  Then the bottom fell out: January through February was the 6th coldest on record, coldest since 1978)

17) The fact that I have said over the last week that colder air in January will replace the relative warmth in December doesn't mean the entire winter will be colder than average. (see FOX 8 outlook issued in October)

18) Lake Erie water temperature is 45 degrees. It's been this warm before on the 22nd of December: 2001 and 1998 for starters.  The water temperature is taken at a depth of 30 feet. No one seems to have an answer as to why.

19) There is a TON of science behind seasonal outlooks. The Farmers' Almanac is not science (although I enjoy reading it).  Weather consulting companies issue seasonal outlooks tailored for their clients. This sector has grown significantly in recent years.

20) Many readers will ignore everything I typed here and replace it with their own conclusions regardless of their validity.

I reserve the right to add to this list.

I hope this helps.

Warmth Continues...When Will It Flip To Winter?

No one is complaining about the above normal temperatures after the two past harsh winters. Above normal temperatures across the eastern 1/2 of the US.  This warmth is not unexpected given the strong El Nino reaching peak strength though I am somewhat surprised that the warmth has been this consistent.

It can't last forever.  So when will it flip or at least trend colder with higher chances of snow!

Remember our preliminary December outlook issued back in early September showed the core of the high pressure/warmth across the northern states into Canada with the core of the low pressure centers across the south (panhandle low type systems).

Through the first week or so, the core of each HIGH and LOW is much stronger than anticipated yet they are roughly in the same position as our forecast 3 months ago indicated. However, the southern lows (Panhandle type) are far weaker and, as of this writing--December 8th--are just now showing signs of developing. (see the smaller "Ls").

Since November, the warmth has been extensive with below normal temperatures in the west. Warmer colors indicate above normal temperatures, cooler colors below normal temperatures.

Some computer model projections have been bullish in tracking these southern lows further east and the warm ridge further north into Canada by the beginning of Christmas week.

The big questions for the end of the month and Christmas week: 1) How fast will the ridge lift north and 2) how strong will the low in the southwest/panhandle region push east?

We do know this: Any easterly migration of the southwest low along the southern jet stream will increase our chances of a wet panhandle-type snow by month's end. 

The chances we will receive wet snow from a panhandle low will climb further after the first of the year.