So far no ice has developed on Lake Erie this winter through January 6, 2022.
The Great Lakes as a whole is void of significant ice.
There have been 12 winters (since 1972 when records began) where no Lake Erie ice was reported through January 5. Over those 12 winters, 6 ended up with at least 70% ice coverage for at least 3 weeks later in the winter!
Lake ice development is directly influenced by the duration of cold temperatures. The longer the temperatures stay cold, the faster and more expansive the ice coverage.
Last winter I did some research on the years where ice coverage increased rapidly and the temperature conditions that were present for this to happen.
For example, in 2019 the average temperatures over the period of Lake Erie ice coverage expansion (roughly a 2 week period) was WELL BELOW NORMAL across a large portion of the Great Lakes.