It's not uncommon for April to feature stalled low pressure with long stretches of "cool" air across the Great Lakes/New England. Our long stretch of warmth a few weeks ago makes this cooler/cloudy/rainy pattern that much harder to deal with. What does the long range (2-3 week outlook) say?
The southern oscillation index went through some significant changes over the last week and a half. The greater these day-to-day changes the stronger the effect across North America, Here is the peer reviewed research: PAPER HERE
SOI analog forecast show the Great Lakes/Eastern US trough backing off by mid month. How quickly will the Southeast ridge build back is the big question.
The reinforcing front Sunday/Monday of next week could produce rain/snow mix. Here was my forecast tweet from April 20 on the early May rain/snow mix potential.
As of this writing (April 25) the new EURO and GFS models show the Greenland Ridge & western North America ridge (red areas) holding strong until the second week of May then gradual weakening. This flattens the trough across the central US bringing an end to the unsettled pattern. These solutions were indicated on the SOI analogs more than a week ago.
Temperatures per the GFS also corroborate what the SOI analogs indicated 2 weeks ago. That is gradual improvement across the central US and Ohio Valley but still no big signs of any long stretches of warmth.
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