What Happened to the "Warm" Lake Erie?

It was only a little over 3 weeks ago (November 18) when Lake Erie was the warmest ever at this point in November. Satellite water temperatures go back to the mid 1990s. This was undoubtedly in response to the very warm early November.

The warmth started in October across the central US and Great Lakes.

When you look at just the first 3 weeks of November the warmest expanded and intensified.

November 14 through the 19th warmth continued to move into the Midwest.

Once we moved past Thanksgiving, the overall pattern became dominantly colder across areas that were breaking record high temperatures. Here is the progression of the cold from central Canada starting in late November. Each image is a 10 day period. First image starts November 19th.

The first half of December has been below normal overall across much of the Great Lakes even after the core of the cold retreated back north.

The graph below illustrates the Lake Erie water temperature each year (1995 through 2024) starting on November 28 and ending December 17. Notice how this year was the warmest 3 weeks ago. Look how the Lake Erie water temperatures responded to the below normal temperatures. Compared to the last 30 years, the water temperature now is near average. A huge drop of roughly 10 degrees in almost 3 weeks!

Given the 2-3 day period of cold this weekend then the warmer pattern between Christmas and New Years, the water temperature drop will probably slow.  Look at the new Canadian long range model output for early January. Ridge development near Greenland, Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian island low shifts west. Ridge/warmth over the central US shifts west. Trough/cold settles into the Great Lakes/eastern US the first week of January. (This setup was highlighted on the the FOX 8 Morning Newscast December 9). If this verifies, Lake Erie water temperature will continue to drop. Good bet we will have some ice coverage by the second week of January.