How Often Does July Feature Above Normal Temperatures? July 2020 Outlook

Here is a look at the average OVERALL temperatures for each July for Cleveland over the last 50 years. RED circles indicate years that were above normal by at least 1 degree.

Let's add BLUE circles to indicate years below normal.

How about the number of days with ABOVE NORMAL high temperatures?
Last year we had more than average.  Yet from 2013-2015 above normal high temperatures in July were way down.

Bottom line:  July isn't always consistently hot historically like many of us believe.

So what is July 2020 looking like?

The position of the ridge of high pressure in the central US will dictate how hot we get in the Ohio Valley. This animation shows the ridge expanding after July 8th.

We'll be on the eastern edge of this heat ridge. This will more than likely allow some NW to SE moving storms to develop early next week and again mid-month...

Analog composites show this too. Something to watch.

Bottom line July Outlook:

Temperatures: Above normal (25 of the 31 days above normal)
Rainfall: Well below normal

How Did This Summer Compare To Similar "Cooler" Summers?

Good day everyone. Now that the meteorological summer period is behind us, let's recap the weather in Cleveland from June through August.  A twitter follower reminded me that you can make numbers say what you want them to say. I responded to him saying that I always aim to paint a broad statistical picture with any weather recap to eliminate any biases and preconceived notions. Prior to the end of August, most of us had already involuntarily created our own narrative about summer before it had ended! So I try to combat the psychology with objective analysis while being cognizant of how people will perceive the numbers I present.

Enough of that, here is what I found. Remember, the time period is from June 1st through August 31st. Here is a quick look at the temperatures versus average across the US and North America. Much of the US especially the interior had temperatures around 1 to 3 degrees below average.

For Cleveland, the average temperature over the 3 months was the coolest in 10 years!

We forget about the summers in the early 2000s and a few in the 1990s.  

2004 and 2000 were far cooler than 2014.

The real temperature story was the number of days below 80 degrees. This summer ranked 5th highest of any summer since 1935.

Summer rainfall was especially high as it was last summer and in 2011.

14.84" was 5th highest in the last 30 years.

The number of days with more than ONE INCH of rainfall was not impressive...

...yet the frequency of 1/4 inch rain events was the 2nd highest (one shy of the record--21--set in 1902) since record keeping began in Cleveland in 1871!

Prior to the late 1920s, the official measurements were taken in downtown Cleveland. Since then, Hopkins Airport is the official location.

* In summary, the summer was the COOLEST since 2004

* The number of days below 80 degrees was the highest since     

   2004

* Most don't remember that 2004, 2000 and 1992 had more

* Rainfall was almost 5 inches ABOVE AVERAGE, 5th  

   highest in 30 years

* The number of 1/4" rain events was 2nd all-time. Only 1975 

   and 1957 matched this summer

How Has Our Summer Outlook Fared So Far?

Those of you who are saying "What happened to the cool summer you guys talked about"? My response is three fold. One, remember that no summer is ever cool. We predicate our summer outlook with this statement each year. Two, we talked about how this summer would have frequent breaks from the heat. That is, we'd have bursts of heat followed by breaks in the 70s especially early on. That was the critical element of our outlook WHICH HAS WORKED OUT TREMENDOUSLY! Third, we are only 30 days into the 3 months are summer. So far, June temperatures are running about 0.8 degrees above average. Here is our summer outlook map (for all 3 months) that we used looking at several years that were shaping up to be similar to 2014. Remember that this map was created on April 9th.

Here is a better comparison between our forecast and the June temperatures.

1) The core of the heat we believed would push a bit east into the Great Plains. It stayed out west.
2) The areas of "cooler" air (gulf coast and Florida) were on target.
3) The slightly above normal temperatures for Ohio and the Ohio Valley were pretty close.

     The BIG miss was the "cooler" air in the upper Great Plains.

Have the overall conditions changed since April? Will we stick with the original summer outlook? I'll revisit summer in a few week.