Tornado Warnings - NWS Cleveland - Date of First Issuance

 

Welcome Changes to Flood Watch/Warnings - NWS

In an effort to simplify the communication of weather information, the National Weather Service has now consolidated all types of FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  This will help the public significantly.

Flood Warnings Through June 25th

Issuance numbers for each NWS forecast office from January 1 through June 25 each of the last 10 years. Note that the colorized legend changes for each year depending on the range.

Which weather service office leads the pack this year?  NWS Indianapolis with 343. The most of any office through June 25th since 2010

NWS Cleveland Flood Warning count

Hurricane Matthew: VERY Strong Statement from the NWS

I haven't seen a National Weather Service discussion with language this strong since Hurricane Katrina 11 years ago:

Statement from the National Weather Service office in New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina:

Why is it so cold in Rome, Ohio?

Last winter, Rome, Ohio in Ashtabula County reached an unofficial state record low temperature of -39. Why is Rome, Ohio so cold compared to other rural locations?  It lies in a valley surrounded by higher elevation. The denser, colder air drains into the valley when the sky conditions are clear and the winds are relatively calm. The heavy snow cover also promotes more cold.

I emailed a variety of people within the National Weather Service asking why this temperature was not certified as the new state record low. Gerry Creager explains:

"In general (and there are others on here who can correct me if I'm wrong), US NWS, and climatological records are recorded by the National Weather Service Forecast Office with responsibility for that area, as well as the Operational Monitoring Branch of the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/information/who_we_are/miss_analysis.shtml).

In addition, the various State Climatologists are responsible for their local data, and report to their own State, often as direct reports (at least on paper) to their Governor.
There are three networks of stations that might use for climate monitoring, including the Historical Climate Network, the Climate Reference Network, and the Federally maintained ASOS sensors usually found at airports. To the best of my knowledge, unofficial, and Citizen-Science sources are not included in monitoring extremes for records, but may be used, as they are in operational meteorology, as sanity checks for other observations. 

I believe you can pull the MADIS Mesonet records, and look at METARs as well. There are several climate data sets in there, but the ASOS data are present, as are the CWOP data. You might also want to peruse http://www.noaa.inel.gov/crn/crn.htm, and the NCDC holdings.

Note: This is based on my knowledge and interpretation due to my research, and some of the work I do with the CWOP servers. There are other folks, associated with the Federal side of CWOP and MADIS, included here, who can provide more authoritative data, perhaps."

Regards
Gerry Creager
4-22-2015

John Horel from NOAA reiterated the same ...

"Gerry covered the issue very well. It is very difficult to get the Climate Extremes Committee managed by NCDC to use networks beyond NWS/FAA.

See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records
for more details on the process, etc."

Regards
John

So it doesn't look promising that Rome, Ohio will officially break the all-time state low temperature record set back in 1899 in Milligan, Ohio

Northern Ohio Severe Weather Recap. ONE TORNADO CONFIRMED

A pretty big weather day yesterday across northern Ohio. Many severe storms with heavy rainfall (2-5"), 1" hail reported & tornado warnings. 

Many people have complained about our "wall-to-wall" coverage saying that nothing was happening and it wasn't worth it. "No tornadoes on the ground so what is the point of coverage like this?" a few said via Facebook and Twitter.  While its easy to lump this event in with all of the others, this round of severe storm was very different than other severe weather events we've had in the recent past in northern Ohio. Why? First, many of the severe cells had the classic hook echo characteristic indicating strong counter clockwise winds which often indicate a tornado. Thankfully, only ONE TORNADO was confirmed in Lorain County. I thought we'd end up with 4 or 5 easily.

Secondly, many cells also had strong changes in wind direction embedded within them. By using the "Velocity Scan", we can determine which cells have rotational signatures by recognizing those small scale wind direction changes. Green colors mean wind moving toward the radar. Red colors mean wind is moving away. Notice the abrupt change and the implied rotation.

For these reasons, the National Weather Service issued tornado warnings. As a public service, it is mandatory to inform the public of the tornado warnings. Given the numerous storms, we needed to break into programming to cover this event BIG TIME! 

For those of you who claim that more tornado warnings are being issued for northern Ohio, that's not the case. After doing some exhausting research compiling tornado warning history, I found that the issuance of tornado warnings at the National Weather Service office in Cleveland, Ohio (our home office) is trending lower since the early 1990s. Also, the percentage of tornado warnings that result in actual tornadoes here in northern Ohio during the same period is comparable to the national average.

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As we recap yesterday's severe weather, its a good idea to review what constitutes a severe thunderstorm as defined by the National Weather Service.

Most storms NEVER reach severe limits. A very small number of severe storms actually produce a tornado. That's comforting news for all of us. That said, the mere mention of the word "severe" has extreme connotations. Many people believe that the word "severe" means "tornado". Nothing could be further from the truth. Here are the tornado facts and figures that I hope set the record straight.

* 5% of storms are severe. Only 1% of storms produce tornadoes

* Tornado warnings are issued for about 75% of all tornadoes

* In 2007, the National Weather Service started to issue warnings on a more local level versus on a county basis. These "polygons" localize the threat inside a specific part of a county.

* Tornadoes occur over a wide spectrum of strengths, sizes, and lifetimes.  Of the 800–1400 tornadoes reported in the United States each year, about 86% can be characterized as weak, 13% as strong, and 1% as violent.  

* In general, weak tornadoes (86%) have lifetimes less than 10 min, widths around 100 m (yards) and paths less than 1.6 km (1 mile) in length.  National Weather Service radars can complete ONE SCAN every 4 to 6 minutes! 

* Typical tornadic wind speeds are on the order 110 mph.   

* The average “lead time” for tornado warnings was less than 5 min in the late 1980s. By the late 1990s, lead time was up to 10 minutes; 13 minutes today (2014)

* National Weather Service forecasters provided a 24-minute lead time for tornado warnings in Joplin, Missouri back in 2011, almost TWICE the national average. 

* According to one study in 1978, there was a 22% probability of tornado detection with a 3 minute warning lead time. By 1998, the probability had jumped to 65%!