Cleveland Summer 2010 vs 2009 vs 2008.....

Across the state of Ohio, this summer ranks 4th all-time warmest since record keeping began in the late 1800s.  Nationally, this summer was also 4th all-time.  It wasn't too long ago--last summer in fact--that summer temperatures were cooler than any summer in recent memory.  Let's compare this summer's ranks nationally to 2009 and 2008.

 This summer was very warm across the eastern half of the country while the west was cooler.  Last summer, more than 65% was much below averages.  2008, although not super-cool by any stretch, was near average to slightly below average.  Here are the ranks of the summers between 2008 and 2002 in Ohio:

2008:  50th warmest
2007:  26th warmest
2006:  41th warmest
2005:    5th warmest
2004:  98th warmest (13th coldest)
2003:  78th warmest (31st coldest)
2002:    4th warmest

What does this mean?  Are the temperatures across the state trending warmer in recent years or cooler?

Here is a graph of Ohio temperatures from 1951 to 2006.  it shows a negligible increase in overall temperatures.

Keep in mind that this is not a snapshot of what is happening globally.  My previous post illustrates the global increase which also note the discrepancy in the data.

Global Temperatures: Who is Right?

I've always said that I'm never a fan of politics.  I give each side of every argument a fair shake regardless of my personal opinions of beliefs. Its my open-mindedness to other information and data that has allowed me to change my opinion on many issues based on newly acquired knowledge.  Politics--as with every hot-button issue--clouds the landscape.

In climate science, the data is the foundation of the field.  This analysis focuses on the two datasets that is often sited and dissected as to what is more valid and reliable.  One represents the ground temperatures.  The other represents the atmospheric temperatures measured from satellites.

The first set is from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).  This dataset goes back more than 100 years of record keeping.  The second originates from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.  Satellites like the AMSU have been measuring the atmosphere since 1979.

The first graph is from GISS.  NASA and NOAA use this dataset in determining long term trends commonly sited.  The data is from 1880 to the present.  I noted the satellite era on the right with two solid red vertical lines.

The second graph is from the UAH website showing the satellite data since 1979.  I added the average temperature rise in red.  All data is available on the web for verification.

The question doesn't come from whether global temperatures have warmed or cooler since 1979 (warming has occurred) but to what degree.  One dataset shows between 0.7 and 0.9 degree celsius increase.  The other shows a 0.4 degree celsius increase.

Furthermore, can the increase be described best using naturally occurring cycles or does the increase in Carbon Dioxide have the most effect?





So what dataset is right?

3 HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC

CHECK OUT THIS HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE OF HURRICANES KARL, IGOR AND JULIA TAKEN ON SEPTEMBER 16TH.  CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR THE COMPLETE IMAGE FOR ACTUAL SIZE.

Monster Hurricane IGOR in Atlantic

After a week of not making up its mind, Igor has rapidly intensified into a major Hurricane with winds of 150 miles per hour.  Igor is located in the lower right hand corner of this satellite photo with a close of IGOR and JULIA following.

The reason for this hesitation in strengthening until this past weekend is in large part due to the cooling of the atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Earl and Danielle a week and a half ago.  Below is a NASA animation showing the cooling effect hurricanes have on the water in its wake.




Forecasts have the hurricane intensifying to a category 5 in the next 24 hours with slow weakening affecting Bermuda late Friday.  Notice the curved path of the highest winds staying well offshore.

Globally, IGOR and JULIA have some of the strongest and widespread wind fields.  Check out the global wind speeds.  The southern hemisphere in its winter season features strong systems over Australia and the Southern Ocean.

Does a WARM August mean a WARM Fall?

August ranked as the 6th all-time warmest.  Surprisingly, July wasn't ranked in the top ten yet June was the 9th warmest on record. Consistant warmth is probably the best way to describe this summer's temperature pattern.

Does a warm August mean a warm fall?  Let's look at the Septembers and Octobers following these hot months.
Remember what we're doing is purely statistical so obviously we are missing some big meteorological components to the analysis like EL NINO but its fun nonetheless.

Let's first list the top 5 warmest Augusts on record including this year and the number of record highs tied or broken in the right column.

1. 77.8  1995       84
2. 77.8  1947       71
3. 76.1  1959       47
4. 76.1  1953      149
5. 75.0  1938        7
6. 74.9  2010       25

Pictured below are the temperatures relative to average for each September following these war Augusts.  All of these years suggest near to above normal temperatures in September in these years.  Again, we are not taking into account any meteorological/climatological variations like El Nino/La Nina, etc.

Now, let's look at October in the same years.

Notice the consistancy from year to year.  Aside form 1947, Octobers seem to stay near normal.


Recently, the weather patterns have done a complete "180" allowing cooler air to settle into northern Ohio for the first time since late last spring.  September 7th of this year marked our 19th day at 90 degrees or better.  The following day, temperatures at 7AM were in the upper 50s!

We might finally be seeing an end to the summer heat.  So far, the forecast keeps the temperatures somewhat near average this week and into next week which would go against the September trend outline here.


Coming up next week, we will recap Hurricane Ike's effect on northern Ohio.

Hurricane Katrina - 5 Years Ago

Five years goes by very fast even when one of the most devastating natural disasters is concerned.  It was on that Sunday back in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina made landfall over New Orleans. It took a similar track to Hurricane Camille took back in 1969 over New Orleans.  This time, the damage was far more significant; the cleanup and rebuilding continues to this day.

Katrina made landfall over the Florida Keys days before as a tropical storm.

It weakened over Florida and quickly redeveloped into a major hurricane mainly due to the Loop Current, a current of warm water between the Yukatan Peninsula and Cuba.  The same current that was responsible for the steering of the 2010 Oil Spill.  The red color shows the Loop Current with Katrina's track over the top.

Katrina as a major hurricane shortly after intensifying in The Loop Current

Katrina's track from the Florida Keys to its New Orleans landfall is shown in this satellite photo blending several images with the track superimposed.

Katrina was a Category 5 shortly before landfall.  It weakened to a strong Category 3 as it made landfall with at least 80% of the city experiencing Category 1 or 2 level sustained winds. New Orleans was hit with winds of 125 miles per hour.  Below is a closeup high resolution satellite photo of the eye before landfall.

The eye over New Orleans

This graphic shows the level of the city compared to the level of the Gulf of Mexico.  You can understand  why 80% of the city was under water.

It proceeded inland with winds rapidly decreasing as shown below.

Hurricane Katrina's track headed north through Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio as a depression with heavy rains.

The total rainfall from Katrina was incredible across the south. 8 to 10 inches of rain fell across the eastern half of the state with a local report of 15 inches near the Mississippi border.  Amounts of 1 to 2 inches for us in Cleveland were common several days later.

The rainfall swath was similar to the rainfall areas created by the track of Hurricane Camille in 1969.

High winds were reported as far north as Detroit and Cleveland  of over 50 miles per hour.

This Summer vs. Last Summer

At this point in the summer, we are all ready for a break from the consistent heat and humidity.  The summer of 2009 was comsidered very cool whereas this summer has been one of the most consistently warm summers in decades.  Let's take a look why the sudden change in the pattern from summer 2009 to 2010.

We need to head to the steering current at 18,000 feet (the winds aloft) to see the large scale changes.

Notice the trough in the east last summer.  That kept cooler air over the Great Lakes and the heat south.

This year, the trough shifted west allowing heat to build in Northeastern Ohio.

The July temperatures in 2009 were WELL BELOW normal across the northern half of the country to include Cleveland.

This year, notice the temperature upswing across the Deep South and New England

Since APRIL 1st, last summer featured 56 days above 80 degrees through August.

This year, since April 1st, we've had 83 days above 80 degrees through August 17th.

What will this mean for this fall and early winter?  Remember this:  In late 2004, temperature in November and December through the middle of the month were WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  I cut my lawn on December 3rd.  What happened after that?  The pattern did a complete 180 degree turn producing more than 30 inches of snow over the last 15 days of December 2005.  So stay tuned.

The History of Searching for Stuff on the Web

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL PICTURE

Hurricane Season's Cranking Up

The official hurricane season forecast back in late May and early June was hinting at a VERY active season for tropical storms and hurricanes.  So far, only 3 named storms and one hurricane.  Will this change?  Will the tropics get more active in the month of August?  All indications are that they will. 

Click here for the National Hurricane Center

Let's head out into the open Atlantic Ocean where the tropical storms often occur.  This year, the amount of dust coming off of the African continent has been above normal.  This has suppressed tropical storm development.  Notice that the organized cloud cover is south of the dust area? Thunderstorms have develops south and are heading west and northwest into warmer ocean waters.

Warm pockets of ocean water are forming in the central atlantic which coincides with the newest tropical depression.  We can expect the ocean to continue warm into August.

Closer to home, the tropics have been very quiet.  No organized storms in the last several weeks.

What is the forecast track on this new tropical system?  Check out the following map.  It looks eerily consistent bringing it closer to home.

Even the National Hurricane Center concurs on this forecast.

If you are vacationing along the east coast, this year and in the next several years could be very active with tropical systems and/or hurricanes impacting the east coast.

Stay tuned for more hurricane updates in the days and weeks ahead.

Its Official: New Hailstone Record

Imagine this mammoth hailstone falling in Cleveland?  Here is the official story.  Credit:  The Weather Channel and the Associated Press
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A hailstone found at Vivian, SD Friday night has now been determined to be the record largest U.S. hailstone by weight and diameter.  This 8-inch diameter stone, pictured above, weighed in at an incredible 1.9375 pounds.

The old record heaviest U.S. hailstone was a 1.67-pound monster in Coffeyville, KS on Sep. 3, 1970.  The old official largest diameter hailstone, measuring 7 inches in diameter, was recovered in Aurora, NE on June 22, 2003.

The Aurora, NE hailstone still holds the U.S. record for circumference, however, with a circumference of 18.75 inches.  The Vivian, SD hailstone fell a quarter-inch short (18.5") of that standard.

Leslie Scott, who found the record hailstone, said it lost about 3 inches because he was without electricity for several hours after the storm. NWS meteorologists told him to put it in a sealed plastic bag and stop opening the freezer door to show it to people.


"If I knew it might be a record, I would have looked for a bigger one, " he said. "There was lots of bigger ones than the one I got. My mother seen one as big as a football, she claims."

Hail from the storm led to at least five reports of injuries on Interstate 90, when hailstones crashed through vehicle windshields.  All 55 homes in the town of Vivian were damaged.  One mobile home's roof was punctured 25 times!

"I've got 19 holes in my roof.  Three of them go all the way through my ceiling," said Lisa Patrick, who lives in Vivian.

SOME HAIL FACTS

Large hail is a fact of life in America's heartland. Each spring and summer, we marvel at reports of hailstones the size of baseballs, softballs, or even grapefruit from intense supercell thunderstorms roaming the Plains. Some storm chasers wear helmets when documenting supercell thunderstorms.

TWC Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Find him on Facebook ), notes that there have been six other instances of 8-inch-diameter hail in the U.S. since 1950, including a stone shaped like a cigar-box in Izard County, AR on June 19, 1970.


Hailstones this large falling at speeds up to around 100 mph, surprisingly, don't often result in fatalities. This may be due to the relative infrequency of very large hailstones (say, baseball-size or larger) over densely-populated areas.

According to Dr. Forbes, there have been only six U.S. fatalities due to hail alone, dating back to the 1700s. The most recent death was a pizza deliveryman in Ft. Worth, TX on Mar. 28, 2000.

The world's hail capital may, in fact, be in northern India and Bangladesh. A single hailstorm killed 246 people in India on April 30, 1888. More recently, 92 were killed in Bangladesh by an April, 1986 hailstorm.  According to "Extreme Weather", by Christopher Burt, India and Bangladesh witness 10-15 days with hail each year, on average.

The world's heaviest authenticated hailstone, according to Burt, weighing in a 2.25 pounds, pelted Bangladesh in the aforementioned April, 1986 deadly hailstorm.  Its diameter was not recorded.

Unofficially, a hailstone weighing an incredible 4.18 pounds was said to have fallen in Kazakhstan in 1959.  In August, 1958, a 2.14 pound hailstone was documented in Strasbourg, France.