A HIGH RISK for severe storms and tornadoes Saturday and Saturday night for the middle of the country was issued by the Storm Prediction Center. High risks are very rare, normally reserved for drastic severe weather situations. No doubt many long path tornadoes will develop tomorrow.
Historically, high risk areas are relegated to the traditional "tornado alley" areas. Below is the HIGH RISK climatology put together by University of Oklahoma graduate student Patrick Marsh who runs a blog about meteorology data, severe storms and a slew of other meteorology related topics.
Upon first inspection, the map seems straight forward. Yet the work involved in creating this easy-to-read map is not so simple. Normally I steer clear of detailing complex descriptions due to their esoteric nature. However this time, I made an exception. Here is Patrick Marsh's explanation on how he took almost 20 years of HIGH RISK data and morphed it into the above graph.
I took the polygon outlining the first Moderate [High] risk during a given year, regardless of time of issuance. This means I treated a 12 UTC issuance the same as a 1630 UTC issuance and 2000 UTC issuance. I took the risk polygon, placed it on a 4km grid (specifically grid number 240), and activate all grid points that fell inside the risk polygon. This left me with a grid of 1′s (inside outlook) and 0′s (outside outlook). I created a grid for each year and then summed all the grids together. This gave me a grid containing the number of times each grid point was within the first Moderate [High] risk of the year. I then divided each grid point by the number of years I was examining. This left me with the probability that a grid point would be contained in the first Moderate [High] risk of the year.
Got all that?
What about the areas where the FIRST HIGH RISK is issued each year? The same technique was applied.
The same system will move through OHIO and CLEVELAND on Monday. Even if the parent cold front is a shadow of its Saturday self, we can anticipate some severe storms. More updates this weekend
As this winter's La Nina weakens, the strength of the southern jet stream won't be as strong this spring. So the frequency of tornado outbreaks over the next 3 months shouldn't be as high. Yet the middle levels of the atmosphere remain strongly cool. While we don't anticipate tornado outbreaks like what we had last year, a few outbreaks will occur.
Here are some historic tornado statistics. We start with the time of day tornadoes occur.
Tornadoes By Month...
Strong tornado trends since 1950 (EF3-5)
EF0 Tornado Reports to Total Reports
Remember these statistics when the next outbreak occurs.
The footage showing the Dallas tornado tossing tractor trailers like toys is fascinating and scary. Thankfully no one was killed yesterday
Evidently a CNN meteorologist said that the Dallas tornadoes were brought on by Global Warming. The meteorologist stated further:
“That’s kind of the climate change we are seeing. You know, extremes are kind of ruling the roost and really what we are seeing, more become the norm.”
Normally, I stay calm and cool when erroneous statements like this make headlines. Yesterday evening, something inside me went off. So I went on a twitter rant. Social media venting in general rarely results in anything positive. The pot become stirred. Words are taken out of context. Objective analysis becomes obscured in a cloud of emotion. Passion and enthusiasm fade into a mire of negativity. Once you are there, it becomes very difficult to extricate ones self. Last night on twitter, I danced on the precipice of the mire. I noticed the err in my way so I stopped dancing and cooled down. All of this happened in roughly 10 minutes. Did you follow all of that?
Let's be clear. The statements by the CNN meteorologist needs to be separated into two subjects which need to be addressed individually.
1. Tornadoes and Global Warming.
2. Extreme weather events and Global Warming.
The portion that I am concerned about here is correlating Global Warming to tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has an excellent FAQ section on their website. One of the questions is simply stated:
Does "global warming" cause tornadoes? Here is the answer word for word from the SPC site:
Does "global warming" cause tornadoes? No. Thunderstorms do. The harder question may be, "Will climate change influence tornado occurrence?" The best answer is: We don't know. According to the National Science and Technology Council's Scientific Assessment on Climate Change, "Trends in other extreme weather events that occur at small spatial scales--such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, and dust storms--cannot be determined at the present time due to insufficient evidence." This is because tornadoes are short-fused weather, on the time scale of seconds and minutes, and a space scale of fractions of a mile across. In contrast, climate trends take many years, decades, or millennia, spanning vast areas of the globe. The numerous unknowns dwell in the vast gap between those time and space scales. Climate models cannot resolve tornadoes or individual thunderstorms. They can indicate broad-scale shifts in three of the four favorable ingredients for severe thunderstorms (moisture, instability and wind shear), but as any severe weather forecaster can attest, having some favorable factors in place doesn't guarantee tornadoes. Our physical understanding indicates mixed signals--some ingredients may increase (instability), while others may decrease (shear), in a warmer world. The other key ingredient (storm-scale lift), and to varying extents moisture, instability and shear, depend mostly on day-to-day patterns, and often, even minute-to-minute local weather. Finally, tornado record keeping itself also has been prone to many errors and uncertainties, doesn't exist for most of the world, and even in the U. S., only covers several decades in detailed form.
As my tweets said last night, I am not against Global Climate Change. As a meteorologist with a focus in physics and mathematics, my stance has been luke warm on blaming any and all "extreme" weather event on global climate change. Why not mention the connections to the change in southerly jet stream position and strength to severe weather and how La Nina can drive this? How about mention that the changes in temperature with height as primary driver of thunderstorm complexes not just warming at the surface?
If the CNN meteorologist made an argument that global climate change is a driver for upper level wind/temperature changes over time which make conditions much more favorable severe weather/tornado outbreaks, I'd listen. Yet the met jumped right into blaming global warming for the tornadoes in Dallas. How can anyone make the jump from "A" to "Z" without addressing components "B" through "Y"
first?
This all might sound like a game of semantics. After all, if the conclusion is correct, who cares how we get there. Why bother with what lies in between "A and Z" if we know the endgame as fact? In this case, the conclusion, or endgame, drawn on CNN--later refuted earlier in this post from the Storm Prediction Center website--is way off course.
"Over the last 60 years (since 1952), a total of 172 tornadoes have been reported in either Tarrant or Dallas Counties, Texas. Of these, 42 have been rated at least EF2 (wind speeds over 110 mph). The strongest, rated EF4, hit Dallas on April 25, 1994, killing 3 people and injuring 48. Neither county has ever reported an EF5-rated tornado."
An incomplete list of downtown/metro tornadoes from the Storm Prediction Center in the link below:
On April 3rd back in 1974, the 2nd deadliest tornado outbreak in US history (2nd only to the outbreak last year). The Xenia tornado touched down around 4:30PM and was on the ground for more than 30 miles killing 32 people. All told, 12 tornadoes touched down in Ohio in less than 24 hours with 148 tornadoes across 13 states! Half of the buildings in Xenia were destroyed
Imagine television weather reports like this in 2012. The archaic radar loop hardly has any detail!
Original 8mm footage of the tornado as it approached
The photos of the damage below tell it all.
HIGH SCHOOL BEFORE (ABOVE) AND AFTER (BELOW)
The "Ohio History" website has even more great photos and some video.
The Mega-Millions lottery jackpot is now very close to the highest lottery jackpot in history. So many stories of people snatching up lotto tickets praying that their ticket answers their financial prayers along with their kids, grandkids and future generations of grandkids....assuming they don't blow their ca$h like the lotto winner from West Virginia in 2002. He blew $100+ million in a little under 4 years! How does that happen?
Not to burst anyone's bubble but for lotto winners who win more than $150,000 are twice as likely to go bankrupt in under 5 years than the general population!
...I'd still take my chances.
Anyway, the numbers are staggering. The odds of getting all of the numbers correct on your ticket are...wait for it...
176,000,000 to 1
So, hypothetically, at $1 a ticket, if you spent $176,000,000 in tickets, does this guarantee that you would win the jackpot? Absolutely not! Remember that the odds are statistical not actual. Who is to say that the same two winning tickets with the same numbers haven't been printed?
How about the odds of some other events:
odds of dying in a fire: 1,116 to 1
odds of fatally slipping in the bath or shower: 2,232 to 1 odds of dying in an airline accident: 20,000 to 1 odds of dying from a lightning strike: 84,000 to 1
odds of dealing a ROYAL FLUSH: 649,350 to 1
odds of being injured by hail: 5,114,000 to 1
odds of being killed by hail in a years time: 734,400,000 to 1
One prominent meteorologist recently said that the combination of elements (teleconnections) which when pieced together dictate specific weather patterns are like the elements of a movie. You can vary any one of the elements of a movie just a little (sound, background sound, brightness, character development, storyline, the way its shot, etc) and the effect can be dramatic for some movie watchers. Yet that same change for another group of film goers could have very little effect.
The winter of 2011-12 is an example of this metaphor. The northern Pacific was cold (PDO) like last winter. La Nina was present just like last winter but it was shorter and not as strong. Yet the biggest change to a more stable arctic/north Atlantic this winter had far different results than the winter of 2010-2011.
SNOWFALL LAST WINTER: 65" SNOWFALL THIS WINTER SO FAR: 38"
An easier way to put it is this way: You change grandma's soup recipe by adding too little salt and pepper and skimp on the paprika and it might bear no tasteful resemblance to grandma's soup. Got it?
This March is yet another example of how the combination of elements driving our weather patterns can and do yield different results when compared to other time frames like last year.
Here is the weather pattern scorecard so far for March
LAST MARCH THIS MARCH
LA NINA STRONG WEAKENING
MJO PHASE (equator) PHASE 3-4 (COOL) STRONG PHASE 6 (WARM)
ARCTIC POSITIVE POSITIVE
NORTH ATLANTIC POSITIVE POSITIVE
PDO (NORTH PACIFIC) COOL COOL
SNOW COVER 19% 20%
PNA (PRESSURE OUT WEST) POSITIVE WEAKLY POSITIVE
Forget the specifics on each element for a moment and look at the similarities.
All but the LA NINA stage and the MJO are similar to last year.
Last March when we were finally able to take a breath as the perpetual snow cover was melting away, the temperatures finally started to rebound but there was still some winter chill left. You probably remember if you tried to golf at Big Met around St. Patrick's Day in 2011.
This year, the trees are starting to bloom. I hear the sound of lawn mowers. I smell fertilizer. I see daffodils attempting to flower. Scary yet awesome sight and sounds in mid March. A sensory overload to say the least.
This week (March 14-20th) we have broke almost a thousand record high temps. We reach a high of 83 on Tuesday. That was a first in March since 1945 and only the 3rd time in a century! Its not only Cleveland but the eastern 2/3rds of the US.
Now do you see how difficult it is to compare this March and early spring to last spring?
The weather pattern ISN'T ALWAYS THE SAME AS THE SUM OF ITS PARTS!
Has this HOT MARCH pattern happened before? You bet. If we look at ALL 17 INSTANCES where we hit 80+ in March in the last century, the pattern (sum of the parts) looks almost identical:
Here are the patterns for the last 80 degree days in March: 1998, 1990 and 1983
How about 1945 and 1910--the last 83 degree days in March?
THEY ALL HAVE RIDGES IN THE EAST AND TROUGHS/COLD IN THE WEST!
I talked with the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources Agricultural R&D Office in Wooster about the growing season so far. According to Dan Herms, we are almost 4 weeks ahead of last year. He says that this early warmth--as long as the temperatures don't drop--won't harm the trees of plant. He also says that you shouldn't plant flowers just yet.
Why should we wait to plant our garden?
Why should we stay away from Lake Erie?
And Why could Christmas trees be the most susceptible to this early spring warmth?
It took a while to sift through the numbers for March. I found that we have had only 8 stretches of 6 or more straight days above 60 in the month of March since 1910.
The last 6 day stretch was in 1995.
The longest stretch was in 1945 when we had two stretches: The first was 8 days, the second was 7.
As of Friday (3/16), the stretch was at 6 days. If the 8day forecast stays on target, we could reach 13 DAYS by the end of next week!
I am sure back in 1737 when Leonard Euler first use the symbol Î , he never envisioned the fascination with Î that developed since. There are tee shirts, PI plates (yes, I have one) and PI mugs. Novelty websites have just about every PI trinket you can think of!
What is PI?
PI is the number that represents the ratio of a circle's circumference to it diameter. It works for every circle. Most math concepts are complex. Just ask any student who is in their
first year of Algebra or Calculus. Yet the PI concept is very simple to
understand by all. Just find a circle, measure the distance across and
with PI, you have the rest. Take a bike tire or a cookie cutter. It works every time!
The interesting part is that PI is a non-repeating, never ending decimal. Since PI is a non-repeating, never ending number, it can only be approximated. Mathematicians have tried to find a pattern to PI but to no avail. Throughout its history, PI has become a fascination among mathematicians and computer programmers. Since PI is a non-repeating, never ending number, it can only be approximated. Over the years as computer processing power increases, developers use the inexact nature of PI to test out computer system efficiency and accuracy. One individual last year calculated PI to
10 trillion digits. It took one computer 371 days and 16.6 terabytes or
3500 DVDs to store them! Read about it below...its pretty amazing.
To put this number of digits in perspective, you only need 40 digits of PI to calculate the
circumference of the observable universe (assuming its a sphere...highly unlikely) to the
accuracy of a width of a particle inside an atom! Anything more is not necessary. Yet,
the search continues for even more digits of PI.
Best of all, circle are present in every aspect of our lives. Think about it, we can't go a second without seeing a circle. More importantly, PI is used in most calculations in the fundamental development of all infrastructure, communications, quantum physics, music theory, medical procedures, DNA; propulsion systems for air travel, space and military aircraft.
Famous scientific discoveries and the math that describes them are riddled with PI components.
* The calculation for determining the horsepower of your car has PI in it
* Einstein's famous equations that describe relativity which is now directly applied in satellite calibration has PI in it. Here it is in very simple form:
* The math that determines electric force (electricity) has PI included
* How about the speed and volume of blood flow inside the first artificial heart? You bet.
PI is included in that calculation too.
* Want to figure out the position of two planets nearest to the earth? Boom! PI is smack
dab in the middle of that equation too!
* Radio communications, cellphones, computer hard drive/processor technology were both developed using mathematics that incorporates the number "PI"
* Airlines use PI to calculate flying distance around the earth
* Manufacturing uses PI to figure out how much of a substance will fit into a volume
of circular or cylindrical space
These are just a few examples of how PI is ingrained in our everyday existence without
us realizing it.
The memorization of PI digits has been just as alluring for some. A guy from China in 2005
recited 67,890 digits of PI. Some unconfirmed claims put the newest records closer to
100,000 in 2006!
PI Day is also a day to teach kids math by making it fun. Our country routinely falls behind the rest of the world in math and science. PI Day is just what we need to emphasize the importance of learning math in a way that students can grasp and hold onto as they continue with their education.
You might not like math. That's fine. You might not get PI. That's fine too. Just remember that PI (3.14159...) is integrated into our everyday life unlike any other number. Without it, your daily life would be totally different.
I love graphics like this. They encapsulate copious amounts of data in pictures that convey the information in a non-intimidating, easy-to-read manner.
One piece of trivia that stood out at me was this:
4.7 BILLION MINUTES spent on FACEBOOK.
Let me do the math: That's 3.6 MILLION YEARS of accumulated time that EVERYONE spends on FACEBOOK sending status updates and goofy pictures EACH DAY around the world! I don't know if I want to be amazed or cry.
Why didn't I think of this simple idea 7 years ago?
NOAA's Space Weather Update on what could happen during the current Geomagnetic Storm. At this point, not much of an event but great Northern Lights. For more explanations, read the rest below...
What is the Earth's magnetic field?
The earth is surrounded by a magnetic field similar to a magnet in your house. Remember back in grade school when the teacher would shake some iron filings on a sheet of paper placed over a store bought magnet? The shape the iron filings made was determined by the magnetic field around the magnet. It looked something like this
What is a "solar flare"?
Before we answer this, we need to understand the sun's behavior a little better: The surface of the sun go through cycles of high and low levels of activity. These are called solar cycles which change every 11 years or so. We are entering in an time of elevated activity.
Higher levels produce more sunspots (areas of lower temperature on the sun's surface) which produce more solar flares.
Recently, research of the dynamically processes within the sun have revealed that these solar cycles are driven by a process called "Magnetic reconnection" or the changing of the magnetic field within the sun. This changing of the magnetic field results in a tremendous amount of energy release on the surface which can create solar flares. Scientists can detect the beginnings of sunspots by "listening" to the "noise" produced by the motions within the sun. The sun's turbulence creates a sound that can be detected before the sunspot forms. Currently, the sunspots are producing a flare that will impact the earth's magnetic field.
Why do we care here on earth?
The earth's magnetic field is very similar to the magnet from grade school science class except MUCH STRONGER. When a solar flare is ejected from the sun, it shoots out highly energetic particles that react with the earth's field. These particles are like the iron filings your grade school teacher spilled on the white sheet of paper described above.
These particles stimulate the earth's magnetic field which can interrupt communications if the flare is strong enough and at the right angle.
For sure, expect some great northern lights in Canada and in the higher latitudes and maybe here in Northeastern Ohio if the skies clear out. Below is a photo taken from the International Space Station as it passed near the highly energized atmosphere producing an awesome Aurora!
